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Significant Decline in Russian Crude Oil Deliveries: Experts at Bloomberg Struggle to Find an Explanation In a surprising turn of events, Russian crude oil exports have recorded the steepest decline since before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Weekly exports of Russian crude oil between July 1-7 saw an unprecedented drop, while the more stable four-week export indicator reached its lowest level since February, according to Bloomberg. The cause of this significant decrease remains unclear. There have been no reported delays in loading schedules suggesting maintenance work, nor have there been any storm-related disruptions. Yet, weekly exports from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and Pacific have fallen. Russia's adherence to the OPEC+ production targets may be reducing the available crude for export. Using Moscow's conversion factor of 7.18 barrels per ton, production has decreased by approximately 360,000 barrels per day from March to June. Additionally, the improved activity at refineries could be affecting crude oil deliveries. Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia's largest crude oil exporters, plan to cut their combined shipments from Novorossiysk by about 200,000 barrels per day this month compared to June levels, following the resumption of operations at their Tuapse and Norsi refineries, Bloomberg's calculations suggest. Moreover, the gross value of Russian crude oil exports declined between July 1-7, but the impact was softened by high oil prices. A total of 25 tankers loaded 18.7 million barrels of Russian crude oil during this period, a significant drop from the 25.66 million barrels loaded the previous week. The volume of Russian crude oil exported by sea between July 1-7 decreased by approximately 990,000 barrels per day, down to 2.67 million, the lowest level since January. The less volatile four-week export indicator fell by about 215,000 barrels per day, to 3.27 million, the lowest level in the past 20 weeks. Deliveries were lower across most Russian crude oil export terminals. Despite last week's decline, year-to-date deliveries remain unchanged compared to last year's average. #OilIndustry #BloombergReport #CrudeOil #RussianExports #EnergyNews

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