Significant Decline in Russian Crude Oil Deliveries: Experts at Bloomberg Struggle to Find an Explanation In a surprising turn of events, Russian crude oil exports have recorded the steepest decline since before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Weekly exports of Russian crude oil between July 1-7 saw an unprecedented drop, while the more stable four-week export indicator reached its lowest level since February, according to Bloomberg. The cause of this significant decrease remains unclear. There have been no reported delays in loading schedules suggesting maintenance work, nor have there been any storm-related disruptions. Yet, weekly exports from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and Pacific have fallen. Russia's adherence to the OPEC+ production targets may be reducing the available crude for export. Using Moscow's conversion factor of 7.18 barrels per ton, production has decreased by approximately 360,000 barrels per day from March to June. Additionally, the improved activity at refineries could be affecting crude oil deliveries. Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia's largest crude oil exporters, plan to cut their combined shipments from Novorossiysk by about 200,000 barrels per day this month compared to June levels, following the resumption of operations at their Tuapse and Norsi refineries, Bloomberg's calculations suggest. Moreover, the gross value of Russian crude oil exports declined between July 1-7, but the impact was softened by high oil prices. A total of 25 tankers loaded 18.7 million barrels of Russian crude oil during this period, a significant drop from the 25.66 million barrels loaded the previous week. The volume of Russian crude oil exported by sea between July 1-7 decreased by approximately 990,000 barrels per day, down to 2.67 million, the lowest level since January. The less volatile four-week export indicator fell by about 215,000 barrels per day, to 3.27 million, the lowest level in the past 20 weeks. Deliveries were lower across most Russian crude oil export terminals. Despite last week's decline, year-to-date deliveries remain unchanged compared to last year's average. #OilIndustry #BloombergReport #CrudeOil #RussianExports #EnergyNews
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#russianoil Russia exported the highest level of oil from its ports in 11 months in the week to April 14, as export terminals likely shipped more crude that couldn’t be processed at refineries knocked offline by Ukrainian drone attacks, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday. In the second week of April, Russia’s crude oil shipments jumped by as much as 560,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.95 million bpd—the highest level since May last year, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. The four-week average shipments, which tend to be less volatile and give a clearer picture of monthly exports, were also significantly up in the four weeks to April 14, compared to the previous four weeks. These shipments were estimated by Bloomberg to have surged by 250,000 bpd to 3.66 million bpd. That’s also the highest average in nearly a year, since June 2023. Source: OilPrice.com https://lnkd.in/dxs9aR7H #globalenergy #oil
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Russian crude exports hit a 2-month low, falling 150,000 bpd in the 4 weeks to Nov. 17. Shipments from the Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic ports slumped 30%, impacted by rising domestic refining rates. #OilMarkets
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#russianoil Russia continued to raise its crude oil exports by sea for a second consecutive week despite promising to stick strictly to its OPEC+ output target in June, tanker-tracking data and port agent reports monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday. In the four weeks to June 16, Russian crude oil shipments rose by some 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.42 million bpd, according to the data reported by Bloomberg's Julian Lee. The week to June 16 was the second consecutive week in which the four-week average of Russia's crude export volumes increased compared to the prior four-week average. Russia slightly exceeded its OPEC+ quota in May, the ministry said, adding that "the issue with overproduction will be resolved in June, when the target will be achieved." The excess production volumes that Russia has pumped since April will be fully compensated for in the future, with the overproduction offset during the compensation period until the end of September 2025, the Russian energy ministry said. It also reiterated that "Russia remains fully committed to the fundamental principles of the OPEC+ deal." Source: OilPrice.com 👇 https://lnkd.in/dZJatDnV #globalenergy #oilgas
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In the last four weeks, Russian crude oil shipments increased by 80,000 barrels per day to 3.42 million bpd. This marked the second consecutive week of rising export volumes compared to the previous four-week average.
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### August Russian Oil Exports Hit Lowest Level in Three Years Russian oil exports in August 2024 reached their lowest volume in three years, totaling around 7 million barrels per day (b/d), a decline of 290,000 b/d from the previous month, according to analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) based on trade data from Kpler and Argus Media. This sharp drop marked the second consecutive month of decline in Russian oil exports, a trend that underscores the ongoing impact of global sanctions and market dynamics on Russia’s energy sector. The IEA attributed part of this decline to heightened field maintenance and possible efforts to meet OPEC+ production cut obligations. **Monthly Breakdown:** – **Crude Exports:** Russian crude exports diminished significantly, dropping by 270,000 b/d to approximately 4.4 million b/d, a year-over-year decrease of 270,000 b/d. This reduction is particularly notable as it follows a seasonal contraction. – **Product Exports:** Product exports remained relatively stable at 2.65 million b/d, despite a summer demand uptick and stagnant refinery runs. However, there was a 240,000 b/d fall in light product exports (naphtha, gasoline plus gasoil) which was partially offset by a 230,000 b/d rise in fuel and VGO (Vacuum Gas Oil) loadings. **Price and Revenue Impact:** – The average commercial export revenue for August declined by $1.6 billion month-over-month to $15.3 billion, a level not seen since July 2023. This decline was driven primarily by lower volumes and prices. Specifically, product revenue dropped by $480 million to $5.6 billion, while crude revenue decreased by $1.2 billion to $9.6 billion. – The weighted average price of Russian crude declined by $3.50-4.00 per barrel over the month, narrowing the gap
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Russian #crude exports sink to 1-year low in July as Moscow directs more #oil to refiners | https://okt.to/idtum4 *#OPEC+ cut pledge, refining recovery, lower Indian demand weigh on flows *Discount for Urals crude shrinks to lowest since #Ukraine war began *Oil product exports rose 6% in July as damaged refineries restored units #Russia #OOTT
Russian crude exports sink to 1-year low in July as Moscow directs more oil to refiners
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### Russian Oil Exports Reach Lowest Level in Three Years Russian oil exports hit a three-year low in August, declining by 290,000 barrels per day (b/d) month-over-month to approximately 7 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This marks the second consecutive month of decline, with exports reaching their lowest since March 2021. ### Crude Export Overview Russian crude exports specifically suffered a seasonal contraction of 270,000 b/d in August, falling to 4.4 million b/d. This reduction represents a year-over-year (y-o-y) decline of 270,000 b/d. On the other hand, product exports remained relatively stable, averaging 2.65 million b/d despite summer demand uptick and stagnant refinery runs. The breakdown of product exports reveals a 240,000 b/d fall in light products such as naphtha, gasoline, and gasoil, offset by a 230,000 b/d rise in fuel and Vacuum Gas Oil (VGO) loadings. This variation is attributed to conversion unit outages following drone attacks. ### Impact on Revenues The decline in both crude and product volumes resulted in a significant drop in commercial export revenues. Russian oil export revenues plummeted by $1.6 billion month-over-month to $15.3 billion, a level not seen since July 2023. Product revenues decreased by $480 million to $5.6 billion, while crude revenues declined by $1.2 billion to $9.6 billion. ### Unclear Causes The exact cause of the unusually deep drop in Russian crude exports remains uncertain. Available data does not clarify whether this decline reflects efforts to meet OPEC+ production cut obligations or simply heavier field maintenance. Almost 230,000 b/d of August seaborne crude exports had no identified destination, limiting the accuracy of
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Russian oil export down to March 2021 lows in August — IEA Oil exports fell the most in August - by 270,000 barrels per day in annual terms to 4.4 mln barrels per day MOSCOW, September 12/ Russia’s export of oil and fuel went down by 290,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August 2024 year-on-year to 7 mln barrels per day (mbd), reaching the lowest level since March 2021. Respective revenues fell by $1.6 bln in August month-on-month to $15.3 bln, which is the lowest level since July 2023. This came amid a decline in prices and supply volumes, the IEA (International Energy Agency) said in its September Oil Market Report. Revenues from sale of petroleum products decreased by $480 mln to $5.6 bln, while revenues from oil sales lost $1.2 bln to $9.6 bln, the report said. Oil exports fell the most in August - by 270,000 barrels per day in annual terms to 4.4 mln barrels per day. Supplies of petroleum products decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 2.65 barrels per day. Export of light oil products (naphtha, gasoline and gasoil) also went down - by 240,000 barrels per day. Export prices for Urals oil fell by $3.5-4 in August to $68.3 per barrel following a decline in Brent crude prices. #business #finance #financialservices
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[TANKERS] "During 2024, tonne-mile demand will be boosted by the impact of vessels avoiding the Red Sea, a development which could be reversed during the next couple of years of our forecast period." Senior Shipping Economist, Thomas Zwick, shares his tanker market outlook for end Q2 2024. He said: "Volatility in rates and expectations will continue with movements in the oil price, Russian volume developments, OPEC+ decisions, and member compliance, as well as China’s ability to maintain economic growth and high crude imports and refinery runs." Every quarter, Veson's Shipping Economists review, analyze and decipher market signals for tankers, bulkers, containers and gas vessels. Read their full summary for Q2 here: https://hubs.ly/Q02ssDGW0 #tankers #oil #forecast #marketoulook #OPEC #RedSea #OilPrice
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Russian refined fuel exports hit an 8-month high in November, averaging 2.3M bpd—up 18% as refineries return from maintenance. Meanwhile, crude exports fell sharply, especially from Baltic and Black Sea ports. #OilMarkets
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