Johannes Cornelis van Nieuwkerk’s Post

7 Sep 09:10: Videod Putin lies: A valuable reminder, ty, Nataliia, with out thanks 🇺🇦🇪🇸: And note how leading a slowly failing war has aged Putin so quickly: ‘In January 2022, russian president Vladimir Putin stated publicly that russia had no intention of invading Ukraine, claiming that russia was simply moving troops within its own territory. He emphasized this during discussions with Western leaders, including #French President Emmanuel Macron. However, at the same time, over 100,000 russian troops were positioned near the Ukrainian border, raising tensions and leading to widespread speculation about a potential invasion Putin's government repeatedly denied plans to invade, with spokespersons like Dmitry Peskov dismissing concerns as "hysteria" and #blaming the West for escalating tensions. However, these reassurances were contradicted by subsequent actions, culminating in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 💡These statements and actions once again demonstrate a clear gap between what russia was publicly stating and what it was strategically planning. #supportUkraine🇺🇦’:

For all those in Washington and throughout the NATO family worrying about Russian President Putin’s threats to escalate if Ukraine defends itself effectively, especially on Russian soil, I refer you to then-President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili’s prescient prediction during Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August 2008:  “Crimea is next.” While Saakashvili said this to me in private, then-President of France Nikolas Sarkozy made a similarly prophetic observation in his op ed in the Washington Post at that time, to paraphrase, that Russia’s invasion of Georgia was bad but the EU would have to do something serious if Russia were to attack Ukraine. Putin’s revanchist writing was already on the wall with his February 2007 speech at the Munich Secueity Conference when he warned Russia would take military action, if needed, to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from joining NATO. And when NATO yielded to Putin's pressure and announced 18 months later at its infamous summit in Bucharest that Georgia and Ukraine would eventually become NATO members, but not yet, Putin heard, “Attack Georgia now, before it’s too late.” And he did, just 4 months later. The West’s collective response to Russia’s invasion of Georgia was circumscribed by its aversion to "provoking" Putin, who was already on the attack. In hindsight, it should be clear that the low price Russia paid for its invasion of Georgia  persuaded Putin he could get away with much more in Ukraine. More on this beginning at around 6:30 in the broadcast below, though it would be a shame to miss the beginning: https://lnkd.in/d6cukBgg

Note: This is a good examination of how Russian disinformation had skewed a lot of initial Western assessments of what has become Russo-Ukraine War. In retrospect, the anemic Western response to the illegal Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 set the stage for the invasion of 2022

https://lnkd.in/d4-vzYhH Ukraine Has a Strategy, the U.S. Doesn’t Trump at least broaches the real issue: Which Kyiv war aims is Washington willing to subsidize? By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. Aug. 16, 2024 4:23 pm ET Ukraine’s invasion and seizure of Russian territory doesn’t improve the short-term chances of a peace deal, which likely weren’t high anyway. It does, however, embarrass Vladimir Putin. It requires the Russians not only to scrounge forces to resist the incursion but to reinforce their border elsewhere. It improves Ukrainian morale and confidence in the country’s leadership, which will come in handy. It throws down a gauntlet to Ukraine’s Western backers, who’ve been in a state of drift rather than pursuing a clear strategy. To return to a theme, the obvious way to lower Mr. Putin’s price point on a settlement is to bring the war home to Russians on their own territory, though most advocates until last week focused on air and missile strikes rather than ground action.

IS ENTERING RUSSIA STILL SELF DEFENCE? Is the Ukrainian invasion of Russian territories considered part of self defence right? If so, where the boundery? And what about all Western Countries supporting the invaded Ukraine? Do we now support the invasion? Legally, politically, militarily, morally. What is our position now?

Frontline in Ukraine before and after russian invasion. It’s Ukraine’s terrotory only, not russia’s. When you hear russian lies about the reasons to invade Ukraine, remember these pictures before and after. russia has come to Ukraine to kill and occupy. And to create a “sanitary zone” as putin and russian propagandists say. A devastated area, free of people. Free of life. #russiaterroriststate #russianwarcrimes #stoprussia #stoprussianaggression #stopwarinukraine

The Ukrainian counter-attack into Russia used surprise, maneuver and offensive as the three primary principles of war out of nine principles. This brilliantly executed, highly risky, attack, has strategic implications at a critical time/season of the war. This is the same time of year as the successful Ukrainian counter offensives in Aug/Sep 2022 in Kherson and Kharkiv. This is often the time of year for offensive operations as the fields are dry and armor can Manuever. Ukraine baited Russia into offensive operations between April-July that gained a few villages but cost 130,000 Russian casualties. Now with a worn out Russian army, Ukraine shocks the world and invades Russia. With the worlds attention on the Russia supported Iranian/Hamas/Hezbollah/Houtis attacks on Israel, Ukraine needs to turn the tables and go into winter with momentum. Prior to the US elections. That is what is happening now with the invasion of Russia. A bold and audacious move by Ukraine that has risks. Now behind Russian lines, Ukrainian forces have fast moving Leopards, Bradley’s and MRAPS and can maneuver and envelop Russian forces. This fast moving force is already gaining major momentum and ground. That is what Ukraine did in 2022 in Kherson and Kharkiv. That is what Ukraine could not do in 2023 due to the miles of minefields defending Russians in Donbas and Crimea. So they enveloped through Russia this time. The soft underbelly of the enemy. The Russian forces on the flanks can stay dug in or retreat. The Objective is not clear yet. But it will be in the next few days. It could be the Kursk 3GW nuclear facility or to go north and envelope the Russian army. Either way, they likely make Russian forces move to counter the Ukrainian threat, or be enveloped and destroyed. And when the Russian forces move, they are at risks or drones calling in cluster artillery. I’m betting on Ukraine.

If the art of war were nothing but the art of avoiding risks, glory would become the prey of mediocre minds ~ Napoleon Reflecting on the current situation in Ukraine, it’s hard not to see parallels with the bold and audacious strategies of the past. The Ukrainian forces’ recent maneuvering behind Russian lines with fast-moving Leopards, Bradleys, and MRAPs is reminiscent of some of history’s most decisive military campaigns. This high-speed operation is already gaining significant momentum, taking the fight directly to the enemy. Yet, while these advances are commendable, they come with their own set of risks—something Napoleon himself would have acknowledged. The success of such rapid movements hinges on maintaining strong supply lines, effective communication, and the ability to adapt swiftly to the enemy’s responses. History has shown us that while audacity can lead to great victories, it also requires careful planning and resilience to avoid overextension. It’s a fascinating moment in history, where modern warfare tactics echo the lessons of the past. As we watch these events unfold, it’s a reminder of the timeless principles that continue to shape the outcomes of conflict. 🇺🇸

The invasion of parts of Russia exacerbates a dilemma that the Kremlin has faced since the start of its full-scale invasion: whether to portray Russia’s war on Ukraine as an existential fight to the death with the west and a prelude to world war three, or whether to suggest it is a local conflict fully under control and nothing for anyone to worry about https://lnkd.in/eMJXQ8D9

"If the countries that support #Ukraine had not turned a blind eye to what happened in #Crimea 10 years ago, there would be no invasion today." 🇺🇦 Ukraine's Defence Minister answers Euronews' question in #Davos ☝️ He highlights a painful truth, often avoided in modern discourse on Ukraine: That 10 years ago, the West failed to stop Russian aggression and support Ukraine - when Russian troops invaded Crimea, and we didn't do a thing to stop it. 🙄 Back then, Moscow denied the unmarked 'little green men' were theirs (it was Wagner) Today, Moscow openly brags about it. And celebrates the 2014 invasion. Imagine if we had intervened... No occupation of Crimea, No decade of war in Donbas, No full scale invasion. 🚨 We were too busy pondering the price of action, of intervention, To consider the price of inaction, which In the long term, is often far higher. "If you tolerate someone's (aggression) today, (disregarding) territorial integrity, the occupants will continue such hostility." ⚠️ Rustem Umerov correctly points out that if you feed a bear today, if you appease, accept and tolerate its bad behavior, The bear will come back for more. 💔 And today, Ukraine pays the price For the hesitation of the free world. "We will never surrender." #PublicSpeaking #Leadership #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦