John Gurd’s Post

I’m a big fan of #Guinness and BrewDog and have been interested to see the rise in prominence of BrewDog's Black Heart over the course of the past year.   Black Heart is increasingly popping-up in social media feeds and online searches and seeing this ad in The Grocer 👇 this week got me thinking about the dynamics of the competition in the world of stout.   Both Guinness and Black Heart can live happily alongside each other in off-trade, but I can’t really see a time when a pub is going to stock two types of stout in the on-trade.   Competitors to Guinness have come-and-gone in the past. I remember @Murphy’s Irish Stout being available in my local when I was growing-up. But few competitors come to the table with BrewDog's credentials.   Landlords and pub chains will be faced with the choice of sticking with what they know sells (Guinness), or switching to what I'm pretty sure they’re being told could sell more (Black Heart). Tough decisions ahead 🤔   For those pubs brave enough to take a punt on Black Heart it will be fascinating to see the expressions of seasoned Guinness drinkers when they’re told Guinness is no longer an option. Give Black Heart a go, or go somewhere else to find a Guinness? Hmmm. It may well depend on whether Black Heart is any good. A quick straw poll around our Winchester Market Measures office suggests it ain’t bad!   If I were Diageo I'd want to keep a close eye on Black Heart to see the scale of adoption in the off-trade and whether Guinness drinkers are tempted to switch to Black Heart. I'd also be keeping a keen eye on on-trade choices to see whether landlords and pub chains are being swayed by the option to be different.   I reckon a year after launch is where it will all start to get interesting, and that's January 2024, just around the corner.  What do others think? Are we watching a Microsoft vs Apple moment or more of a Coca Cola vs Virgin Cola one? Or is Black Heart just another drink in a world stuffed full of choice?   A quick sample of our office showed 15% of the team to be near-regular draught stout drinkers - which was higher than expected. So over the next few weeks we're going to run some blind taste tests ourselves and gather some extra qualitative input… stay tuned for the results😀 #iconicbrands #challengerbrands #headtohead #ornot