JOHN C.’s Post

#SdS #LifelongLearning #ConflictResolution #PeacefulMeans ... ➡️ #Settlement Quite vintage one... (If someone were to ask why a conflict should never get more challenging.)🤔 ➡️《Resolution: We invite this Congress, and through it the scientists of the world and the general public, to subscribe to the following resolution: “In view of the fact that in any future world war nuclear weapons will certainly be employed, and that such weapons threaten the continued existence of mankind, [➡️] we urge the governments of the world to realize, and to acknowledge publicly, that their purpose cannot be furthered by a world war, and we urge them, consequently, to find  [➡️] peaceful means for the settlement of all matters of dispute between them.” Signatories: Max Born Percy W. Bridgman Albert Einstein Leopold Infeld Frederic Joliot-Curie Herman J. Muller Linus Pauling Cecil F. Powell Joseph Rotblat Bertrand Russell Hideki Yukawa》 🤔 ⬇️ ref Business Insider

I’m reading The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner by the late Daniel Ellsberg, and it’s quite bleak. In addition to the fact that mid-level military commanders have the authority to initiate nuclear attacks, there’s the reality, known only since 1983, that a nuclear war of as little as 100 weapons of 15 kiloton yield (as in a potential India-Pakistan nuclear war) would lead to significant nuclear winter effects, and anything much larger than that, as in a USA-Russian exchange, would release enough smoke into the atmosphere to plunge the planet into darkness and devastate agriculture, leading to billions of deaths from starvation. Perhaps a few humans could survive long enough to repopulate the planet, if they had a long-lasting food supply in their bunkers to get them through the years of darkness. Most of the non-human life would also die. Knowing the consequences of nuclear winter, military strategists and political leaders continue to plan for such a war. It reminds me of our planetary battle with the effects of climate change and the forces emitting the pollution that’s creating the problem. With so many disbelievers in advanced climate models that have proven highly accurate in forecasting our current predicament, I’m not surprised that warmongers could deny the climate models that predict the catastrophe of nuclear winter. It’s a sad state of affairs. https://lnkd.in/giqQmESA

The Future of Nuclear Proliferation After Ukraine CISAC Stanford 15 Mar 2024 Speaker: Nicholas L. Miller In the last few years, a number of analysts have warned that we may be on the brink of a more proliferated world, as the security environment deteriorates, concerns about U.S. reliability as a protector are on the rise, hostility between the great powers grows, and the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) seems to be under increasing stress. These fears were supercharged by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which appeared to demonstrate that nuclear weapons can facilitate conquest and that giving them up—as Ukraine did in the early 1990s—exposes states to terrible predation. How worried should we be about the nuclear club expanding in the coming decade? Drawing on lessons from nuclear history, I argue that while proliferation risks are growing, they are significantly more manageable than many analysts suggest. And while the odds of proliferation are increasing in both East Asia and the Middle East, we should be significantly more concerned about the latter.

Disarm or Proliferate? Germany’s Nuclear Choices in the Age of Zeitenwende Carnegie Endowment 26 Mar 2024 #foreignpolicy #CarnegieEndowment For decades, Germany has safeguarded its security through a combination of U.S. extended nuclear deterrence and disarmament advocacy. With Donald Trump’s threats to NATO and Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, both policies face mounting challenges. In Berlin, nuclear weapons discussions are taking place against the background of a Zeitenwende—or pivotal turning point—in German foreign and security policy. How should Germany adapt its nuclear policies to the changing conditions of great power rivalry? Can it continue to balance deterrence and disarmament, or is Germany changing its national identity from civilian to military power? And how can the country leverage its technological innovation potential for the defense of Europe? In his new book Germany and Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century: Atomic Zeitenwende?, Ulrich Kühn brings together internationally renowned nuclear scholars and policy analysts from Germany and abroad to answer these questions and discuss Germany’s changing nuclear deterrence, arms control, and disarmament, as well as nonproliferation policies. This timely volume can be a guide for officials and experts managing the tensions between dependency on the United States and Germany’s own conservatism. Join George Perkovich as he sits down with Ulrich Kühn as well as Liana Fix and Amy J. Nelson, two of the contributing authors, to discuss. 

NUCLEAR WEAPONS #Snsinstitutions #snsdesignthinkers #designthinking Nuclear weapons are explosive devices that release energy from nuclear reactions, either fission (splitting atomic nuclei) or fusion (combining atomic nuclei). Here are some key points about nuclear weapons: _Types:_ 1. Atomic bombs (fission-based) 2. Hydrogen bombs (fusion-based, also known as thermonuclear bombs) 3. Neutron bombs (enhanced radiation weapons) _Effects:_ 1. Massive destruction from blast and thermal radiation 2. Radioactive fallout contaminating air, water, and soil 3. Long-term health effects from radiation exposure (cancer, genetic damage) _History:_ 1. Developed during World War II (Manhattan Project) 2. First used in combat (Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 1945) 3. Cold War era saw proliferation and arms race 4. Various treaties and agreements aim to limit and reduce nuclear arsenals (e.g., NPT, START) _Current Status:_ 1. Nine countries possess nuclear weapons: US, Russia, China, France, UK, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea 2. Global stockpiles estimated around 13,000 warheads 3. Ongoing debates on disarmament, non-proliferation, and nuclear security _Concerns:_ 1. Proliferation and potential use by rogue states or terrorists 2. Accidental launch or miscalculation 3. Humanitarian and environmental consequences of nuclear conflict Would you like me to expand on any of these points or provide more information on nuclear weapons?

"Pitching the book as useful for wide-ranging audiences, Jaspal sets the stage by briefly shedding light on competing philosophical and theoretical approaches, including neorealism, both offensive and defensive, and regime theory. Starting with this and key debates makes sense as it helps readers better understand why and how states pursue nuclear weapons. However, Jaspal could have built a new theory to explain the peculiar dynamics of the region as the current ones are not only outdated but also have limited explanatory power."

I received an early copy of Annie Jacobsen’s book “Nuclear War: A Scenario” (2024). I just finished reading it and highly recommend it to anyone concerned about the prospect of a post Cold War nuclear exchange. Annie Jacobsen, a national security journalist, previously wrote about the secret intelligence program to bring Nazi scientists to America after the Second World War (Operation Paperclip, 2015). Many today are speciously disconnected from the contemporary risks of nuclear weapons and the notional nuclear war. In the Cold War we could not escape this reality in air raid drills, fallout shelters, movies, articles, etc. … total annotation felt 30-minutes away … Nuclear War: A Scenario starts by reminding us of what a 1-megaton burst on the Pentagon would mean to the people surrounding Washington, DC; setting the stage for the detailed exploration of the sequence of events involved in a nuclear exchange. This is the sort of detail everyone should know about strategic nuclear warfare: public, consultant, and official. Half the book is a detailed account of the first 24-minutes, followed by the next 24-minutes, and ending on the consequences of a nuclear winter. Each chapter has gray-pages of lessons learned from history. Using journalist rigor, interviews of experts, sourced formerly classified documents, and good story telling brings what would take reading dozens of books together into a compelling narrative. The surprise of the scenario is how even a small nuclear power could potentially silence a global hemisphere and change the course of human history. This is why every discussion on WMDs may start with CBRN in general, though it invariably ends with the N-only specifically. Buy a copy at https://a.co/d/52I4icI

Russia Vetoes U.N. Resolution On Nuclear Weapons In Space: This week Russia vetoed a UN resolution that proposed banning nuclear weapons in space, CNN reports. But it all happened "amid U.S. intelligence-backed concerns that Moscow is trying to develop a nuclear device capable of destroying satellites." In February, President Joe Biden confirmed the US has intelligence that Russia is developing a nuclear anti-satellite capability. Three sources familiar with the intelligence subsequently told CNN the weapon could destroy satellites by creating a massive energy wave when detonated... US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said Wednesday's vote "marks a real missed opportunity to rebuild much-needed trust in existing arms control obligations." A US and Japan-drafted resolution had received cross-regional support from more than 60 member states. It intended to strengthen and uphold the global non-proliferation regime, including in outer space, and reaffirm the shared goal of maintaining outer space for peaceful purposes. It also called on UN member states not to develop nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction designed to be placed in Earth's orbit.... Experts say this kind of weapon could have the potential to wipe out mega constellations of small satellites, like SpaceX's Starlink, which has been successfully used by Ukraine to counter Russian troops. This would almost certainly be "a last-ditch weapon" for Russia, the US official and other sources said — because it would do the same damage to whatever Russian satellites were also in the area. The article notes that in March Russian President Vladimir Putin "told officials that space projects, including the setup of a nuclear power unit in space, should be a priority and receive proper financing." Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 for sharing the news. Read more of this story at Slashdot.

The survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki bear harrowing yet profoundly wise testimonies—lessons the global community, especially its leaders, should heed with the utmost seriousness. Their accounts serve as powerful warnings, urging humanity to prevent nuclear war at all costs. For more information, visit this article accessible at https://lnkd.in/dpqpnhwd

📖 How did Pope Francis influence the Catholic attitude toward nuclear weapons? In this article, Dr Christian Braun analyses the rationale behind Francis’s decision to break with nuclear deterrence, mainly grounded in the disillusionment about the failed promise of nuclear disarmament. Explore it👇 https://ow.ly/jifU50QGKpl