John Walker - Optimal Wealth Solutions’ Post

SMSFs don’t want to be investing in markets where things aren’t moving. Historically Australians have focussed on ASX as it has been expensive to buy US stocks. Not any more. The benefits of diversification are starkly apparent in Australia, where the local ASX 200 index rose only 7.8 per cent in 2023 compared to much bigger gains internationally,” Adam Smith said. Global markets faired far better with: - US S&P 500 rising 24% 🌭 - NASDAQ 100 54% 💻 - Dow Jones Industrial 14% 🗽 - German DAX 20% 🏭 - Japanese Nikkei 225 28% ⛩ At Saxo Australia our new pricing model includes the reduction of brokerage fees by up to 87 per cent for US equities, to as little as $USD1, and the reduction of brokerage fees by up to 62 per cent for Australian equities, to as little as $3. With SMSF Adviser #smsf #portfoliomanagement #diversification #thingsthatmatter

GS | The lowdown on the risk of an(other) equity drawdown - Global equities had a drawdown in August and have remained volatile since. Equity drawdowns are a common feature, but their size and frequency has varied over time - risk-adjusted returns were unusually high in the last 12 months. - While 'buy the dip' has been a successful strategy since the GFC, its success has been mixed over long horizons as often equity drawdown risk lingers. If an equity drawdown comes alongside a fast and broad de-risking across assets the asymmetry to 'buy the dip' is usually positive Full note: https://lnkd.in/dCpaNR75 #equities #btfd

The ASX 200 wrapped up last week on a high note, sparking discussions on what could be next for the index. 📈 Are you keeping your eyes peeled for what this week holds in the Australian market? Here's a quick read on the elements that might influence the ASX 200 this week: - A promising start, anticipated to open higher by 0.3%, buoyed by positive global markets and speculation about rate cuts. - Keep watch on the #EnergySector, with oil prices dipping to a three-month low. - Banking is in the limelight, especially with Westpac Banking Corp's results on the horizon, showing potential earnings decline but a dividend increase. - #GoldMiners may gain traction after a subtle price rally, despite recent downtrends. - Lastly, the valuation of investment banks like Macquarie Group deserves attention amidst mixed reviews post-financial announcements. Investors, it's time to stay vigilant as corporate earnings, commodity trends, and economic indicators come into play. For an even deeper dive into the factors affecting the ASX 200's trajectory, read the full article. 📊🔍 For insights and detailed analysis, click here: https://lnkd.in/gHYGdsPm

A long-awaited broadening to more cyclical sectors such as value and mid- and small-cap equities delivered. In April, we remain overweight in #equities. Get our monthly outlook and allocation guidance in Portfolio Playbook: https://ow.ly/bVle30sCxN5

A long-awaited broadening to more cyclical sectors such as value and mid- and small-cap equities delivered. In April, we remain overweight in #equities. Get our monthly outlook and allocation guidance in Portfolio Playbook: https://ow.ly/HZ7x30sBGzQ

A long-awaited broadening to more cyclical sectors such as value and mid- and small-cap equities delivered. In April, we remain overweight in #equities. Get our monthly outlook and allocation guidance in Portfolio Playbook: https://inves.co/3Jhzw9s

The reason you don’t invest is because you don’t understand risk.🤔 ❓If you invested £1,000 into the stock market what is the probability that after 10 years you’d have less than £1,000? Go on…think about it. Give an answer in % terms. That’s the question that was asked during a TISA UK commissioned study into UK investment behaviours. Before I tell you the actual answer, what do you think a sample of the Great British Public said? It turns out that people generally overestimate the risk of losing money after 10 years - the probability suggested was over 30% chance of losing money. 😑 What’s amazing is how wrong this is. Historically the FTSE100 has had 3.5% of 10-year periods when it is down over that time period. To reframe it - that’s 96.5% of times it will be up over a 10-year cycle. I’ll take those odds! Invest in the US stock market such as S&P500 and it has almost never happened! That’s right, a near 0% outcome meaning that over a 10-year period the S&P500 has been up almost 100% of the time historically. Now clearly, history doesn’t mean the same will happen in the future but it’s a damn good demonstration of how much people misunderstand and overweight the risk of investing in equities. 📈 TL:DR: if you’re not investing in the stock market out of some fear of the risk of loss then you’re probably NOT “risk averse”. It’s more likely that you simply don’t understand the risk and probably overweigh it. Generally, the longer the term of the investment, as long as it’s properly diversified, the risk of actually losing money declines rapidly. Think on that! #personalfinance #isa #investing #risk #tisa

A long-awaited broadening to more cyclical sectors such as value and mid- and small-cap equities delivered. In April, we remain overweight in #equities. Get our monthly outlook and allocation guidance in Portfolio Playbook: https://ow.ly/XczV30sBzYF

Amidst the political turbulence in the UK, it's reassuring to witness the stability of our financial markets. Despite the uncertainties, the FTSE 100 is edging closer to fresh record highs, reflecting resilience and investor confidence. In times of political unrest, the FTSE's performance serves as a beacon of stability, underlining the robustness of our economy and its ability to weather challenges. As we navigate through uncertain times, let's take comfort in the strength of our financial markets, demonstrating the UK's enduring position as a global economic powerhouse. #FTSE100 #UKEconomy #Stability #InvestorConfidence #Resilience https://lnkd.in/e8u4MXfW

The ASX 200 rose 3.30% in March, extending its positive momentum for five consecutive months. From the market lows in October 2023, the ASX 200 has rebounded by around 15% to reach a new all-time high. A more optimistic growth outlook supported by firmer economic data has helped extend the equity market rally. Indeed, since the peak in rate expectations last year, the Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) of the ASX 200 has expanded by ~15%, driven by valuation multiple expansion in the Banks, Discretionary Retail, Real Estate and Technology. Notably, an unbridled optimism regarding the pending AI revolution led by the US company Nvidia has expanded to include the broad sweep of technology and real estate providers of data centres. At the end of the March quarter, the ASX 200 was trading on a 12 month-forward multiple of around 16.7 times, a ~12% premium to its long-term average. While elevated valuations can be a warning signal that markets are vulnerable either to a correction or that future returns will be more muted, we think it is equally important to consider the state of the economy and the outlook for corporate profits, which at this stage to continue to exhibit resilience. With this backdrop in mind, the market has reassessed the likelihood that central banks will cut interest rates aggressively this year, particularly given the strength in labour markets and the buoyancy in residential house prices. In March, the market breadth improved with all sectors moving higher, except Communications (-0.8%). On the positive side, Gold (+16.6%), Real Estate (+9.2%), and Energy (+5.6%) were the strongest sectors. At a portfolio level Goodman Group, Resmed, and Northern Star were notable strong performers, whereas Pilbara Minerals, Spark NZ, and IDP Education weighed on performance. While the global equity bull market has extended to 18 months, investor sentiment has changed dramatically over this period. At the beginning of 2023, concern over the impact of multiple interest rates rises to quell inflation had darkened investor risk appetite to be more defensive. In a spectacular turnaround and a direct challenge to consensus thinking, equity markets were emboldened in 2023 with the banks, discretionary retail and technology leading the charge forward. As we progress through 2024, the economic landscape and corporate profits are not only displaying signs of resilience but also expansion, as evidenced by indicators such as the US Manufacturing ISM New Orders Index. Equity markets are now reflecting this renewed optimism. It is now crucial to thread the needle carefully to achieve a tactful balance between defense and growth assets.