Joint Vienna Institute’s Post

𝐀𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑, 𝐰𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭 𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠, 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠. International trade and GDP growth are improving and there is surprising resilience amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Find out more about where we think the global economy is heading in our latest Economic Outlook 👉 https://brnw.ch/21wLdnE #economicoutlook #globaleconomy #economicforecast #managingrisk #enablingtrade

𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗟𝗼𝘄, 𝗦𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗜𝗠𝗙'𝘀 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas of the International Monetary Fund sees minimal risk of a global recession, citing strong economic performances in the U.S. and emerging markets, and faster-than-expected inflation decline. Despite potential geopolitical threats from the Middle East, the IMF projects a steady global growth rate of 3.2% for 2024 and 2025. #finance #news #GlobalEconomy #IMF #EconomicOutlook Source:- https://lnkd.in/eK8Gvrjj

Since early 2020s the global macroeconomic environment has remained highly uncertain due to the two unprecedented events witnessed by the world-pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. From supporting growth through policy rate cuts and infusing liquidity during the pandemic to aggressively reversing these measures to contain inflation, the world has witnessed dramatic movements in growth, inflation, trade, liquidity, and currency. Standing today, these uncertainties continue amid emergence of fresh geo-political tensions, high levels of government debts, inflation declining at a slower pace and growth parameters giving mixed signals. During such times, it becomes imperative to keep a track of the key global macroeconomic indicators. Read the entire Chartbook for more information. #MacroChartbook #MarcoEconomicEvnviroment #Global #Inflation #GovernmentDebts

Since early 2020s the global macroeconomic environment has remained highly uncertain due to the two unprecedented events witnessed by the world-pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. From supporting growth through policy rate cuts and infusing liquidity during the pandemic to aggressively reversing these measures to contain inflation, the world has witnessed dramatic movements in growth, inflation, trade, liquidity, and currency. Standing today, these uncertainties continue amid emergence of fresh geo-political tensions, high levels of government debts, inflation declining at a slower pace and growth parameters giving mixed signals. During such times, it becomes imperative to keep a track of the key global macroeconomic indicators. Read the entire Chartbook for more information. #MacroChartbook #MarcoEconomicEvnviroment #Global #Inflation #GovernmentDebts

International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, April 2024 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐒𝐥𝐨𝐰: 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐝 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 - the global economy has been 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes. 🌐 The baseline growth forecast for the 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 is 3.2% for 2024 and 2025 (same as 2023). 🌐 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐞𝐬 is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2023 to 1.8% in 2025, whereas 𝐝𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐞𝐬 will decline marginally from 4.3% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2025. Downside - 🌐 𝐓𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬 aimed at curbing high government debt, with higher taxes and lower government spending, is expected to weigh on growth.  🌐 Dimmer prospects for growth in 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 and other large emerging market economies will weigh on trading partners. 🌐 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 could intensify, with higher barriers to the flow of goods, capital, and people implying a supply-side slowdown. Upside - 🌐 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 is generally projected to decline more gradually. 🌐 𝐀𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 and stronger structural reforms than anticipated could spur productivity. https://lnkd.in/ecVTBYpf #IMF #WorldEconomicOutlook #GlobalEconomy #EconomicForecast #GrowthTrends #EconomicResilience #FiscalPolicy #InterestRates

#World_Economy-Interest_Rate_Projections #Food_For_Thoughts MARKETS Visualized: Interest Rate Forecasts for Advanced Economies Interest Rate Projections for Advanced Economies While U.S. inflation cooled in the second half of last year, price pressures returned in 2024, leading investors to rethink how soon central bankers will cut rates. Despite the recent increase, the interest rate forecast for many economies looks optimistic, thanks to subdued energy price shocks and abating supply chain disruptions. Still, short-term risks remain, including persistently high services inflation clouding the outlook. This graphic shows the interest rate forecast for advanced economies, based on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2024 World Economic Outlook. Source: Visual Capitalist | International Monetary Fund

🌍 What can we expect from the world economy in the near future? The IMF has published its renown World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. Check it out here. --- ▶️ 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 is estimated at 3.2%, both in 2024 and 2025. The forecast is driven by (i) still-high borrowing costs, (ii) lower fiscal spending aimed at curbing government debt and (iii) increasing geoeconomic fragmentation. ▶️ 𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸𝘀 to this forecast: (i) new price spikes stemming from geopolitical tensions (🇺🇦, 🇮🇱), (ii) persistent core inflation where labor markets are still tight, leading to higher-for-longer interest rates, (iii) faltering growth in China 🇨🇳, caused by the problematic real estate sector. ▶️ 𝗨𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹: (i) looser fiscal policy could raise economic activity in the short term, (ii) further gains in labor force participation could bring inflation down faster, (iii) AI could spur productivity. --- 🗣️ In my opinion, international cooperation is needed more than ever to boost the global economy and limit the costs of geoeconomic confrontation and climate change. What do you think? Is this a realistic scenario? Let me know in the comments ⬇️ Source: https://lnkd.in/dXf3bQd2 #maxfactoftheday #IMF #worldeconomicoutlook #WEO #outlook #geopolitics #internationalrelations #business #foodforthought #factfulness This is a personal post and does not represent the opinions of my employer.

Since early 2020s the global macroeconomic environment has remained highly uncertain due to the two unprecedented events witnessed by the world- pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. From supporting growth through policy rate cuts and infusing liquidity during the pandemic to aggressively reversing these measures to contain inflation, the world has witnessed dramatic movements in growth, inflation, trade, liquidity and currency. Standing today, these uncertainties continue amid emergence of fresh geo-political tensions, high levels of government debts, inflation declining at a slower pace and growth parameters giving mixed signals. During such times, it becomes imperative to keep a track of the key global macroeconomic indicators. #MacroEconomics #MacroChartbook #March2024 #JMFinancialMutualFund #JMFinancialAssetManagementLtd

Since early 2020s the global macroeconomic environment has remained highly uncertain due to the two unprecedented events witnessed by the world- pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. From supporting growth through policy rate cuts and infusing liquidity during the pandemic to aggressively reversing these measures to contain inflation, the world has witnessed dramatic movements in growth, inflation, trade, liquidity and currency. Standing today, these uncertainties continue amid emergence of fresh geo-political tensions, high levels of government debts, inflation declining at a slower pace and growth parameters giving mixed signals. During such times, it becomes imperative to keep a track of the key global macroeconomic indicators. The Chart Book is created with an effort to provide you with a comprehensive and coherent collection of charts that represent the recent trends in global as well as domestic growth, inflation, trade, currency and liquidity. #MacroChartBook #macroeconomics #JMFinancialAssetManagementLtd

The global economy remained resilient with “Weakflation” the likely macro scenario for the U.S. PGIM Fixed Income sees a broad-based fixed income story with ample alpha-generating opportunities despite ongoing uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions. Watch this video to learn more. https://on.pru/3QStDDE