Josh Johnston’s Post

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Fractional CTO, AI, and Data

Time for end of year predictions, and I'm going to start with the easiest one: In e-commerce, 2024 will be the year of returns. It's always cat and mouse with fraudsters. As I look back at my predictions over the last 7 or 8 years, the trend went from stolen credit card numbers to synthetic fraud/account creation fraud, to account takeover, then to first party chargebacks. As retailers have tuned solutions to each of these scams, the bad guys move on to the next thing. Easy money for e-commerce is a thing of the past and profitability has risen in importance relative to growth. The fattest chunk of expenses ripe for savings comes from the generous return policies that have built consumer trust in online shopping. Returns are abused by all sorts of vectors, from straight 3rd party fraud to over use by low profitability customers. Look for return policies to get tighter in 2024 and more personalized as retailers match friction to their customer expected value and risk models, making returns easier for good and low risk customers and harder for others.

Gone are the days of walking in without a receipt and getting a gift card for something purchased and forgotten months ago?

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