KC Wealth’s Post

"Don't fight the fed..." "When the Fed is raising rates, don't be long equities..." If I had a dime for every time I heard that saying over the past three years... A few clients asked why we weren't selling and sitting in cash during the summer of 2022 when inflation peaked at 9.1%, the fed was raising rates, and the market was abysmal. It was a perfect storm. We should have sat in cash, right? Three questions I couldn't answer with any more certainty than staying invested: 1) When should I get clients out? (they'll say I've waited too long) 2) When should I get clients back in? (this takes a lot of convincing - what if it goes back down?) 3) What are the chances I get both of those right? (0% - never happens!) While I rebalanced the investment strategy along the way, I kept clients invested through the 2022 lows. It was painful. Markets finished negative that year. Clients were rightly scared, but they trusted my guidance and the fact that we made quality investments in the first place. During that summer, one client would answer my calls by singing the Spinning Wheels song... "what goes up, must come down..." Yet, we stayed the course. All of our investment account values are higher today because of it. And, our financial planning goals have benefited. Here's the deal with investing: there's no free lunch. Or, as Dolly Parton said, "you can't have a rainbow without a little rain." Great piece this week from Charlie Bilello, including this snippet - read it here: https://buff.ly/3Nh3DQg #investing #rules #dontfightthefed #rates #federalreserve #sp500 #stocks #stockmarket #volatility #stayinvested #financialadvice #investmentadvice

POLICY CROSSCURRENTS: POTENTIAL MARKET IMPACTS Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Financial https://lnkd.in/e89k23D Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election. #FederalReserve #stockmarket #FinancialMarkets #financialplanning #financialadvisor #RetirementPlanning #InterestRates

I see/hear from a lot of people now that the place to be is smaller caps in the US giving this rally has broadened to almost every industry, and the importance of the Macro side of the equation. I believe it’s been time for smaller caps since late last year, and absolutely is the place to be moving fwd in time. That doesnt mean forgetting about S&P500 leaders either - but interest cuts favor+ the first ones mentioned. And we are about to get the party started. Besides, they’ve been quiet for 2 years…and they rally+ when that happens. Much more data supports the idea of rotating certain % towards smaller caps, but Ill mention one more point: election yrs in the US seem to act volatile after summer, and the Russell 2000 outperforms. Quite an interesting convo. #finance #economics #investments

Stanley Druckenmiller Bets Against Federal Reserve Outlook. Billionaire investor counters expectations with significant position against U.S. Treasury bonds amid changing economic forecasts. (21.10.24) Stanley Druckenmiller, widely regarded as one of the best investors ever, is at it again, and this time he’s taking the bold step of betting against the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rates and inflation. For decades, Druckenmiller's Duquesne Capital Management delivered impressive returns, averaging 30% annually for thirty years, outpacing even Warren Buffett's performance with Berkshire Hathaway. Although Duquesne Capital closed its doors back in 2010, Druckenmiller continues to make waves through his Duquesne Family Office. Rumors have emerged from recent conferences where Druckenmiller shared his views, questioning whether he might know something the rest of Wall Street has missed. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gRNcgN5k //

Float like a butterfly sting llike a bee, the hands can’t hit what his eye can’t see — Muhammad Ali October is proving to be a heavily contested heavyweight title fight for investors as the market continues to suffer body blow after body blow in the form of economic releases, dock worker strikes, increasing oil prices, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.  U.S. stock futures are taking a standing 8 count this morning with trainers (financial advisers) stressing; stay focused, remember what got us here, counter punch (buy the dips) when the opportunity presents itself but keep your guard up because any one of these hay-makers could land you on your keister on the canvas.  Adriaaanne!     "Two old adages on Wall Street: don't fight the trend and don't fight the Federal Reserve. ... These remain among two key pillars for today's equity market," Truist Wealth co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner said in a note Friday. However, Lerner did caution that the looming U.S. presidential election and the potential for so-called "October surprise" could keep market volatility elevated in the coming weeks. Investors will keep an eye on the international news this week, with tensions still high in the Middle East. On the economic front, key releases in the week ahead include the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday.  _- CNBC Down the Shore,  I don’t know which of the named storms is playing spoiler, but there‘s something big a brewin” out there this morning. The morning light is peeping from under a blanket of razor sharp bank of soot colored clouds as the fight between day and night, light and darkness wages on. We appreciate the light because we have seen the dark.  Batten down the hatches. Make it a great day. 

Float like a butterfly sting llike a bee, the hands can’t hit what his eye can’t see — Muhammad Ali October is proving to be a heavily contested heavyweight title fight for investors as the market continues to suffer body blow after body blow in the form of economic releases, dock worker strikes, increasing oil prices, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.  U.S. stock futures are taking a standing 8 count this morning with trainers (financial advisers) stressing; stay focused, remember what got us here, counter punch (buy the dips) when the opportunity presents itself but keep your guard up because any one of these hay-makers could land you on your keister on the canvas.  Adriaaanne!     "Two old adages on Wall Street: don't fight the trend and don't fight the Federal Reserve. ... These remain among two key pillars for today's equity market," Truist Wealth co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner said in a note Friday. However, Lerner did caution that the looming U.S. presidential election and the potential for so-called "October surprise" could keep market volatility elevated in the coming weeks. Investors will keep an eye on the international news this week, with tensions still high in the Middle East. On the economic front, key releases in the week ahead include the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday.  _- CNBC Down the Shore,  I don’t know which of the named storms is playing spoiler, but there‘s something big a brewin” out there this morning. The morning light is peeping from under a blanket of razor sharp bank of soot colored clouds as the fight between day and night, light and darkness wages on. We appreciate the light because we have seen the dark.  Batten down the hatches. Make it a great day. 

Investors keep adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of the new cycle. Perhaps the first adjustment was the equity sector rotation, with some factor rotation embedded. Coincidentally, in fixed income, the adjustment is occurring on the short end of the Treasury curve. The T-bill trade that has been in place where Investors have absorbed everything Janet Yellen was issuing up to 3 months, is extending into the 2 Year bond, as you can see in the chart below. The bet appears to be clear: once the Fed starts cutting, will continue to do so, rapidly. That’s why the spread between Fed funds and the 2 year is the widest it’s been since the Great Financial Crisis. When Fed Funds catch up to the 2 year, perhaps the next move will be on duration side, extending maturities to benefit from lower yields and in the credit space, where Investors have started to differentiate between BB and CCC, but will need to further adjust if we enter a new credit cycle. Want to know more? join Fund@mental here https://lnkd.in/en3eA832 #iamfundamental #soyfundamental #wealthmanagement #familyoffice #financialadvisor #financialplanning #policymistake #ratecut #stagflation Chart source: Zerohedge

The Fed meeting and Powell's comments moved the markets this week. What's in store for markets moving forward? Read our latest thoughts in this week's Market Musings. #fedpolicy #earningsseason #jobs #consumerspending https://lnkd.in/gEH_g3A8

🚨 Market Turmoil Alert! 🚨 Today, the U.S. stock market plunged, erasing over $1.93 trillion from the S&P 500. Fears of a recession, disappointing corporate earnings, high inflation, and interest rates at a 23-year peak have fueled this dramatic downturn. But here’s the good news: All of my clients using an Indexed Universal Life policy or a Fixed Indexed Annuity didn't lose a penny. 💪 If you're not that fortunate, let’s talk about securing your financial future (before it hgets worse). 📞💼 #FinancialSecurity #LifeInsurance #Annuities #MarketProtection #FinancialPlanning

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