Kalshi’s Post

Historically, the number of job openings tends to mirror the inverse of the unemployment rate. Weak job openings mean higher unemployment. Strong job openings mean lower unemployment. As one goes down, the other goes up. https://buff.ly/3VvVxbf

The US jobs market remained healthy in February as job openings held steady at 8.8 million, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The ratio of available jobs per unemployed worker has decreased to near the pre-pandemic norm of 1.2 and currently stands at 1.4. Meanwhile, the number of layoffs ticked upward to 1.7 million, and people voluntarily quitting their jobs rose marginally to 3.5 million.

Over the past two-plus years, job openings have fallen by over 30%, and data from Indeed's Job Postings Index suggest they are still declining. Yet the unemployment rate has only drifted up during that time. The possibility of such a labor market moderation was the topic of a debate between Fed policymakers and some prominent economists. The Fed's view has won. But how much further do openings need to fall before policymakers feel the labor market is rebalanced? Looking back at the models used in the summer 2022 debate, job openings don’t have much further to fall before returning to their relative balance circa 2019. For more on this topic, check out the Indeed US Labor Market Update for May 2024. Link in the comments!

Job growth continues to surprise to the upside with 216,000 jobs added nationwide in December. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.7%. While job openings were down in most of the country, they were up in the Midwest. This week we examine the national and local job numbers to see which sectors are cooling down and which ones are heating up. Learn more 🔗 https://bit.ly/3RSY2RZ

According to the Fed official who spearheaded (and won) that debate: Waller: “Will employment bear the brunt of the reduction in demand or will vacancies absorb the impact? Traditional Phillips curve analysis assumes that employment would bear the brunt and as a result, unemployment would rise significantly from a tightening of monetary policy. History has shown that this is not an unreasonable assumption, particularly when the job vacancy rate is below 4.5 percent.” https://lnkd.in/dv_uhwn4

Job openings are on the decline, signaling potential shifts in the economic landscape. Key insights to consider: — A decrease in job openings could indicate cooling labor market conditions. — This trend may influence unemployment rates and overall economic stability. — Understanding the interplay between job openings, inflation, and interest rates can help keep you more informed about the state of the economy. Staying updated on employment trends can be useful for making informed decisions. How do you think declining job openings will impact the economy and labor market? #Hiring #Inflation #Career #Trends #Strategy Source: https://lnkd.in/es-eQExZ

U.S. job openings barely changed in February, staying at historically high levels in a sign that the American job market remains strong. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that employers posted 8.76 million job vacancies in February, up modestly from 8.75 million in January and about what economists had forecast. But the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed that layoffs ticked up to 1.7 million in February from 1.6 million in January, highest since March 2023. The number of Americans quitting their jobs – a sign of confidence they can find better pay or working conditions elsewhere – rose modestly to 3.5 million.

The Wall Street Journal, JOB MARKET COOLS PAINLESSLY, for NOW Even a Slowly Cooling Labor Market Often Ends With a Recession. The job market rarely rebalances painlessly; the Fed hopes this time is different. From article: The pandemic left the U.S. labor market badly overheated. Reopening businesses panicked at labor shortages, paying big raises to hire. As prices shot higher, fears rose of a wage-price spiral. Recently, though, the labor market has cooled, and indeed, looks like something close to normal. Unemployment has crept up from a half-century low of 3.4% a year ago to 4% in May, consistent with what economists consider full employment. The Labor Department releases June data Friday. The question now is whether the labor market is in a sustainable equilibrium where unemployment settles out around 4% or keeps softening, resulting in recession—as historically has occurred when unemployment rises much more than it already has. By Nick Timiraos @jobsearchtips #management #technology #recruiters #humanresources https://lnkd.in/eZ_8sC9i

Despite a dip in job openings to 8.7 million in October, the lowest since March 2021, the U.S. job market remains robust, demonstrating resilience amid higher interest rates. The decline is notable in sectors like healthcare, finance, and hospitality, yet overall job availability continues to surpass 8 million for a record 32 consecutive months. This slight cooling aligns with a broader moderation in hiring compared to the rapid pace of recent years. With 239,000 jobs added monthly this year and an unemployment rate below 4% for an unprecedented 21 months, there's an optimistic outlook. Click the link below for the full article and share your thoughts. https://lnkd.in/ghvHZxhF #jobmarket

The hottest job market in a generation is over. A pandemic-induced hiring spree and super-low unemployment helped millions of workers in the U.S. find new gigs. That robustness is starting to wane; for example, hiring fell beneath its pre-Covid level, and unemployment last month rose above 4% for the first time since 2021, which is still low by historical measures. Economists disagree about whether this is a job market rebalancing or a situation that could continue to worsen.