“Core inflation in the US and EU remains elevated and labor markets remain tight, suggesting interest rates will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels in the in the foreseeable future,” the World Bank said. The World Bank also aired a warning about the sharp increase in debt in the region, which keeps borrowing costs high and squeezes both consumption and investment. Corporate debt in China and Vietnam has risen by more than 40 percentage points of GDP since 2010 and exceeded the level in advanced economies, it said. Household debt in China, Malaysia and Thailand is also higher than those in other emerging markets. On the external front, increased trade protectionism — mostly wielded by advanced economies — could hurt growth for developing East Asia and the Pacific as it limits access to key markets like the US, South Korea and Japan. Firms receiving subsidies are potential competitors of the region’s firms. Almost 3,000 new trade-distorting measures were imposed in 2023, three times as large as those in 2019, it added. #economygrowth #interestrate #marketdevelopment #businessstrategy #supplychainstrategy
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Most economies in East Asia & the Pacific are set to grow faster than the rest of the world. And according to The World Bank developing economies East Asia & the Pacific are set to see slowing growth, with higher-for-longer interest rates & geopolitical tensions. GDP growth forecast 2024-25 ➡ East Asia & the Pacific Region: 4.4% ➡ East Asia & the Pacific Region excluding China: 4.7% ➡ China: 4.4% ➡ Pacific Island Countries: 3.4% If China invades Taiwan it would cost the world economy approximately $10 trillion, whereas the world is not ready for this. A restructure of taxation & more transparency can help the nation recover from its property crisis. And it is projected to grow 4.5% this year. Cambodia, Philippines & Vietnam are projected to by above 5% this year & approximately 6% next year. Projections for Myanmar & Thailand remain slow. Corporate debt in China & Vietnam remains high, whereas household debt in China, Malaysia & Thailand remains higher than those in other emerging markets. With extreme weather events increasing, global debt rising, & major elections coming things remain unclear in the short-term. #eastasia #asean #geopolitics #apac #macroeconomics #economics #economy #asianeconomy #china #taiwan
World Bank Warns of Slowing Growth in East Asia Amid China Slump
bloomberg.com
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ASEAN ECONOMIES IN 2024 - US monetary policy influences Asian exchange rates, potentially benefiting Asian currencies amidst relaxed financial conditions. However, the USD is expected to maintain strength due to stable global growth. - Despite 2023 US rate hikes, Asian bonds performed well. The Fed's dovish stance boosts expectations for a bond rally, contingent upon regional central banks' easing. - Equities in Asia saw a late 2023 rally, driven by declining US bond yields, with potential gains in markets like China, Indonesia, and the Philippines amid positive earnings surprises. - Opportunities in 2024 include India's growing earnings, favorable prospects in ASEAN nations like Indonesia and Thailand, and challenges in Malaysia due to the global trade downturn. - In navigating Asia's 2024 landscape, investors must not overlook diverse opportunities across asset classes, weighing local and global factors for a balanced approach. #hsbcresearch #hsbcuk More on the link:
ASEAN Perspectives
gbm.hsbc.com
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Developing economies in Asia and the Pacific are projected to grow through 2024 and 2025, with inflation moderating. However, policymakers still need to pay attention to risks that could affect the outlook—from uncertainty related to U.S. election outcomes, interest rate decisions, property market fragility in the People’s Republic of China, adverse weather conditions, and geopolitical tensions. 🔗 What Could Derail Asia’s Solid Growth Outlook? https://lnkd.in/gwdNF8Uc 🔗#ADO2024 report https://lnkd.in/g2DrEFAE
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IMF boosts Asia growth forecast this year on China, India Full Article Link >>> https://lnkd.in/gQzfky-U The International Monetary Fund boosted its growth forecast for Asia this year, reflecting a rosier outlook for the region’s two largest economies and flagging a possible upward revision in its outlook for China.Asia is set to expand 4.5% in 2024 from the prior year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the October regional outlook but a […] . . Latest IND . . . . #trendingnews #newstrending #trendingtopicnews #lifestyle #business #news #healthylifestyle #smallbusiness #supportsmallbusiness #lifestyleblogger #luxurylifestyle #businessowner #businesswoman #smallbusinessowner #businessnews
IMF boosts Asia growth forecast this year on China, India
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IMF boosts Asia growth forecast this year on China, India Full Article Link >>> https://lnkd.in/g3pw2q5a The International Monetary Fund boosted its growth forecast for Asia this year, reflecting a rosier outlook for the region’s two largest economies and flagging a possible upward revision in its outlook for China.Asia is set to expand 4.5% in 2024 from the prior year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the October regional outlook but a […] . . Latest IND . . . . #trendingnews #newstrending #trendingtopicnews #lifestyle #business #news #healthylifestyle #smallbusiness #supportsmallbusiness #lifestyleblogger #luxurylifestyle #businessowner #businesswoman #smallbusinessowner #businessnews
IMF boosts Asia growth forecast this year on China, India
latestind.com
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In CNBC Asia Squawk Box this morning, Christiaan Tuntono, our Senior Economist Asia Pacific, shared his views on the outlook for Asia economies. He noted that the future policy rate moves in Asia would be very much determined by the policy rate trajectory of the Fed. When the Fed starts progressing into a policy rate cut cycle, the easing of global monetary condition will be a tailwind for the macro condition in Asia. The fact that Asia harbours less resilient price pressures allows disinflation to proceed, prompting higher real interest rates and raising the prospect for nominal policy rate cuts in Asia this year. Subject to when the Fed starts cutting, he thinks Bank Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of India may also commence their policy rate easing moves in the late second quarter or third quarter of 2024, followed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Bank of Korea in 2H24. Besides, he observed that both Korean and Taiwanese tech-related data, such as export orders, merchandise exports, and inventories, have shown signs of stabilization. This suggests that the global semiconductor cycle is potentially in the process of bottoming out. Hence, he turned more constructive on the outlook of the two tech-heavy economies in East Asia, anticipating their external economies to recover through 2024. #AsianEconomies #AsianCentralBanks #MonetaryPolicy #RateCuts
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#Asia #Market #Brief: Oct 24, 2024 Certainly. Here are the top three key highlights related to Asia (excluding China), summarized as concise news headlines: 1. **Asian Markets Open Defensively Amid Rising U.S. Bond Yields** - Speculation over Federal Reserve rate cuts impacts market sentiment across the region. 2. **South Korea's GDP Growth Avoids Recession, Won's Level Deemed 'New Normal'** - The economy shows slight recovery with a 0.1% quarterly growth, stabilizing the won. 3. **Bank of Japan Faces Inflation Challenges Amid Yen Volatility** - Governor Ueda emphasizes the difficulty in achieving a sustainable 2% inflation target. These headlines capture the primary developments and concerns in Asia, excluding China, from the provided information. Stay updated with the latest market insights. Join our free Telegram channel https://lnkd.in/dGbDg5Uh
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The article discusses the current and projected economic trends in Western economies and Asia for the year 2024, including factors such as inflation, monetary policy, growth expectations, and currency exchange rates. It highlights the potential for a soft landing in the U.S. and the eurozone, but also presents various risks and challenges that could disrupt economic stability, including geopolitical events and uncertainties in the Chinese real estate sector. #AsiaRisk #ShiftingGeopoliticalAlliances #China Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gK5mathk
Western Economies are Pivoting to a New Normal While the Rest of Asia Diverges
chinausfocus.com
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East Asia’s growth is faster than the rest of the world but China headwinds weigh, World Bank says PUBLISHED MON, APR 1 2024 Dylan Butts Despite remaining the fastest growing region, the World Bank’s latest report says East Asia and Pacific’s growth is projected to ease to 4.5% in 2024 from 5.1% last year amid headwinds in China and policy uncertainty. However, excluding China, growth in the EAP region is predicted to reach 4.6% this year — higher than 4.4% in 2023. “China has become profoundly important for the region, as a source of inputs, as a destination where value added produce in the region is ultimately consumed, and as well as a source of investment,” Aaditya Mattoo, East Asia and Pacific chief economist at the World Bank says.
East Asia's growth is faster than the rest of the world but China headwinds weigh, World Bank says
cnbc.com
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Myriad Movements in Global Economies The ripple effects of elevated interest rates in the US, UK, and eurozone are becoming evident. Latest data reveals that inflation is either easing or stabilising across major global economies—except Japan. This year’s uptick in inflation prompted the Bank of Japan to end its longstanding negative interest rate policy. Additionally, the momentum in manufacturing activity expansion appears to be slowing in both the UK and eurozone. Download the detailed #CRISILInsights global economy report to find out more: https://lnkd.in/dpdm9pDd #GlobalEconomy #USEconomy #UKEconomy #ChinaEconomy #JapanEconomy
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