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PAG's 2023 Investor Conference, held in Hong Kong on November 8, addressed the state of the Chinese economy. Despite domestic challenges and broader geopolitical conflicts, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2023. But can this growth be sustained? What is China's ability to respond to economic challenges from both a monetary and fiscal perspective, and what are the emerging trends, sectors and technologies that have the potential to transform China's economic landscape? Two key observations emerge: ▪ Housing problems will not lead to banking crisis ▪ Demographics are unlikely to stop long-term growth In conclusion, China is not without its economic challenges, and there are good reasons why business and consumer sentiment are currently weak and confidence low. It will take several years of political stability and concrete policy support for the private sector to fully restore confidence. The economy is not operating at its full potential, but China's economic fundamentals are sound, the government has ample policy space to address the current slowdown, and its industrial development has positioned it well for the future. All of this means that, despite the naysayers, China's growth is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. #china #chinabusiness #chinamarket #chinaeconomy #chinamarketing #chinanews #chinatrade #consumergoods #consumerproducts #asia #asiapacific #apac #apacregion #economy #economicgrowth #economynews #economy2023

The Way Forward for China's Economy In a recent insightful piece by 黄奇帆, titled "中国经济的出路" (The Way Forward for China's Economy), several key trends and strategies for China's economic development are highlighted. As we look towards 2024, these insights are particularly relevant for businesses and investors focusing on the Chinese market. Firstly, the article emphasizes the importance of a global perspective, highlighting the role of China's eight major 𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 as economic powerhouses. These clusters, including the 𝘉𝘦𝘪𝘫𝘪𝘯𝘨-𝘛𝘪𝘢𝘯𝘫𝘪𝘯-𝘏𝘦𝘣𝘦𝘪, 𝘠𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘵𝘻𝘦 𝘙𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘋𝘦𝘭𝘵𝘢, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘎𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘉𝘢𝘺 𝘈𝘳𝘦𝘢, contribute significantly to China's GDP and are pivotal in driving economic growth. Another key point is the Belt and Road Initiative's impact on changing the international economic landscape. The initiative, particularly the 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮-𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀, is not just enhancing trade connectivity but also revolutionizing trade distribution systems and creating new economic values. The piece also delves into the concept of the "𝘀𝗶𝘅𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘆," a strategy to revitalize rural China by integrating agriculture with secondary and tertiary industries. This approach aims to 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 traditional agriculture into a more dynamic and value-added sector. Furthermore, the article discusses the need for breakthroughs in 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴, focusing on creating high-quality products, reducing homogenization, and overcoming key technological dependencies. This is crucial for China to maintain its manufacturing prowess and move up the value chain. Lastly, the importance of 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 is underscored. While China excels in goods trade, there's a growing need to enhance its service sector, especially in terms of international standards and competitiveness. These insights from 黄奇帆 offer a comprehensive view of China's economic strategies and potential growth areas. As we navigate the complexities of the Chinese market, understanding these trends is vital for any business looking to succeed in this dynamic landscape. #Chinatrends #ChinaEconomy #GlobalBusiness #InnovationInChina #Chinabusiness #chinesemarket #ManufacturingTrends #BeltAndRoadInitiative #Graceselected

Siah Hwee Ang, Professor in International Business and Strategy, Professorial Chair in Business in Asia, and Director of Southeast Asia Centre of Asia-Pacific Excellence at Wellington School of Business and Government, Victoria University of Wellington writes about what we might expect from China in 2024. His five key observations: 1. China will remain as the world’s largest trading nation 2. China’s economy will continue to slow down 3. China will continue to grapple with a consumption-led growth model 4. China will continue to push for more trade with developing countries 5. China will maintain a central role in many value and supply chains See his article written for Interest.co.nz for more on each point:

China's economic growth is showing signs of slowing down, sparking concerns about its future trajectory. As the world's second-largest economy, this shift could have ripple effects globally. How do you think this will impact international markets? Read more: https://lnkd.in/dEMwP7pm #ChinaEconomy #EconomicGrowth #GlobalMarkets #FutureProspects #ChinaSlowdown #EconomicConcerns #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategies #AsiaEconomy #TradeImpact 

China’s rapid development in the years since opening up means its economy is around 65% the size of the US, as measured in 2023 market rates. But will it ever catch up? Our new, in-depth report explores the outlook for US global economic outperformance – including the rise of challengers. Download this exclusive extract from our client report now. https://lnkd.in/eF5kY-JV #china #useconomy

As we navigate the complexities of global markets, it's vital to stay updated with economic trends that could shape our strategies. Here's a snapshot from China's latest economic performance: 📈 China's GDP grew by 5% in the first half of 2024, reaching a robust 61.68 trillion yuan. Here’s a breakdown: 🔺 Primary industry: +3.5% to 3.07 trillion yuan. 🔺 Secondary industry: +5.8% to 23.65 trillion yuan. 🔺 Tertiary industry: +4.6% to 34.96 trillion yuan. Quarterly insights reveal: 🔸 Q1 saw a growth of 5.3%. 🔸 Q2 slightly slowed to 4.7%, with a sequential growth of 0.7%. These figures not only reflect China's economic resilience but also hint at sectors with burgeoning opportunities. 🚀 If you are eyeing international expansion, understanding these shifts is crucial. Are you aligning your business strategy to leverage China's economic momentum? 🤔 How can your business benefit from China's diverse industry growth in the upcoming quarters? Source: Yangshixinwen #BusinessStrategy #InternationalBusiness #EconomicGrowth #ChinaMarket #Leadership #GlobalExpansion #trends

The latest issue of Nikkei Asia magazine is out. Check out what's inside. CHINA'S GROWTH DILEMMA Anxious to avoid past mistakes, Beijing chooses caution as economy slows https://lnkd.in/g_s7Du-9

China's recent confirmation of a 5.2% growth rate for 2023 marks its slowest economic expansion in three decades, signaling a significant downturn. This development raises concerns about the global economic landscape in 2024. The decline in investments and market demand in China can be attributed to economic restructuring, changing consumer preferences, and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the influx of competitively priced technological products may disrupt global markets and present challenges for foreign businesses operating in China. As the world's second-largest economy and a major trading partner for many countries, China's economic slowdown can have significant repercussions on the global economy. It is crucial for businesses and policymakers to closely monitor these developments and adjust strategies accordingly to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities for sustainable growth and collaboration. Please join the conversation and share your thoughts! We value your opinion and would love to hear your comments on this post. Don't hesitate to share it with others who might be interested. #ChinaEconomy #GlobalMarketConcerns #global #econominc #future #innovation #strategicthinking #EngageWithUs #ShareYourOpinion

An interesting analysis by Donald Low and David Skilling who argue that while investments in new technologies and green infrastructure make sense, there's concern about overcapacity without sufficient domestic or foreign demand. China's trade surplus raises questions about who will absorb its excess productive capacity, especially as developed countries seek to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. Developing countries may resist absorbing China's surplus due to their own export-led industrialization strategies. A more selective industrial policy and a boost in consumption spending are suggested as a way forward. Increasing social security and cash transfers to households could encourage domestic consumption, benefiting both China and the global economy. Failure to address these issues may lead to distortions, higher costs, and weaker growth domestically and internationally.

This opinion piece in today’s Nikkei Asia summarises the key elements of our roadmap for China’s cycle and markets over the next few months. 💡 Economic activity hasn’t been as bad as might have been expected given the collapse in real estate and scarring from zero covid. 💡 The offsets have been monetary policy, manufacturing, and a consumer recovery that has been stronger than is usually recognised. 💡 But the combination hasn't been strong enough to lift nominal growth. That makes China's economy, via the CNY, vulnerable to shockwaves emanating from the US election. 💡 The Plenum was a big opportunity to inject some reflationary momentum, and so put the economy and currency in a better position to withstand those shocks. 💡 It is far too early to write off the Plenum as a non-event. That it included pledges in areas like welfare reform is encouraging. The follow-up from the meeting has barely started. 💡 But events this week don’t suggest any change in sentiment. That includes price action, but also the release of detailed monetary data for June, which show savings still moving into time deposits. Subscribers to East Asia Econ can read more detailed analysis here: https://lnkd.in/gzDR_saF https://lnkd.in/gZEHKxxM