Kyle Beyer’s Post

This morning, I had the pleasure of attending ULI New York's 2024 Annual Economic Forecast with my Karp Strategies colleagues, Annie White and Anthony Fabre. Thanks to featured speakers Rebecca Rockey, Cushman & Wakefield’s Global Head of Economic Analysis & Forecasting, and Marc Norman, Associate Dean of NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate, for a compelling presentation and discussion about the outlook of the commercial real estate industry. As expected, the forecast was sobering, but there are still reasons to be optimistic. First, New York has done this before. After 9/11, many thought Lower Manhattan would never rebound. It did, and then some, and was reborn into a 24-7 community - a neighborhood Karp Strategies is proud to call home! Given this experience, New York can show the world how it’s done by once again leveraging public policy and planning to address the glut of office space in its business districts. Second, the urban “doom loop” is likely overblown because New York is less dependent on revenue from commercial real estate taxes. Only 27% of the city’s total revenue comes from commercial real estate taxes, less than other cities like Houston, DC, Austin, Atlanta, Dallas, and Boston. There’s a chance for a bumpy landing and long recovery, but today’s excellent event shows there’s reason to be bullish about New York! #ULINewYork #2024outlook #realestate