Whenever I see articles like this I'm reminded of the fact that in an 11 page research paper in July 2019 we called the 'end of commercial real estate' as well as calculating the timing of the technological development of AR headsets and the emergence of verical mixed use buildings. Some extracts from that piece are below.
"In the next 10-15 years, commercial real estate may well be a
shadow of its former self - especially with the demise of demand for office
spaces.....
It is foreseeable that by the mid 2020s near-life resolution will be achieved. The technology could then subsequently be scaled down to fit into a wearable device such as an AR headset....
[The Apple - Vision Pro was released early 2024, and the Sightful - Spacetop is coming out late 2024]
Given the rate of progress it would seem feasible that this [transition of technology and commercial real estate] could be achieved in the early-mid 2020s....
In this future world, companies would save enormous amounts of money on office rent, insurance, and onboarding....
Meanwhile property development outside of cities would increase in number and prominence as more and more people move to suburbs and rural locations where they can still work just as easily, but can have more space, cost effective housing, better quality of life and, provided they have transportation, access to whatever centralised urban amenities still exist at that time....
...[People will] drive past the facades of banks, insurers, estate agents and supermarkets, and past the towers built just decades earlier that were once the offices of global corporations but have been repurposed as live-work apartments. Apartments with really great views."
Shout out to my former colleague Daniele Francesconi who kicked off that thought experiment years ago. 👏
And a couple of relevant links:
https://lnkd.in/eAtPmdhU
https://lnkd.in/eaES5Z3j
Get ready for the world’s largest ever conversion of an office skyscraper in London ✔️
Radical plans have been unveiled to transform 8 Canada Square (the HSBC Tower) in London.
HSBC Tower is a 200 metre and 1.1 million sq ft skyscraper in Canary Wharf.
When HSBC vacates the tower in 2027, it is set to be redeveloped, including the removal of large chunks from its facade.
Plans for the reimagining of the tower have been unveiled by its owners the Qatari Investment Authority and its development partner Canary Wharf Group.
The cuts to the tower will carve out new terraces and divide the building into 8 sections that will be easier to lease.
The floors next to the large cut out could become a hotel and serviced apartments.
The higher floors would become an entertainment complex with museum, restaurant and garden.
The lower floors would be new frontage for shops and restaurants.
The reimagining has been designed by architects Kohn Pedersen Fox an the overhaul could cost from £400m to £800m
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