Leo Kolivakis’ Post

- National unemployment rate remains at 6.1% in April with 90,000 jobs added. - Employment gains focus on part-time work and private sector. - Professional, scientific, technical services, food, accommodation, healthcare, social assistance, and natural resources sectors drive job growth. - Youth unemployment (15-24) rises sharply to 12.8%, highest since July 2016. - Canada's economy loses momentum in February, reversing a job loss in March. - April jobs report exceeds expectations, with average hourly wages up 4.7%. - Stronger-than-expected jobs report raises concerns about inflation and interest rates.

There was wavering this week, with surprise data in the US jobs outlook, we saw rates jump up a little bit. (over 3.3% 5 year GOC) The Canadian economy is different from the US, while many similarities, we have to be careful not to fall 100% in a 1 for 1 type mindset. Link below of the Canada jobs report, shows a much different picture, and expect the gains in rates will be erased potentially by the time Monday morning hits. An increase of 100 jobs, and digging more into the report, loss of 23,000 full-time positions replaced by 23,000 part-time positions which were likely to staff-up the holiday rush. We could reasonably expect the economy to drop jobs in January, showing a much broader slow-down in the Canadian economy. Remember our GDP per person or productivity, is vastly behind our neighbors to the South. We are living week by week instable times, and expect 2024 to be choppy.

Just read some data on Canada's July jobs report. Unemployment is at 5.4%, and wage growth is a solid 5%. This got me thinking about how we should adjust our investments. With strong wage growth, focusing on sectors like consumer staples and healthcare might be wise, since they’re less influenced by interest rate changes. It's a good moment to re-evaluate your portfolio. Consider income-generating assets and keep an eye on borrowing costs if you’re close to retirement. Flexibility and regular reviews can help navigate these times. https://lnkd.in/eBT4nC_t

Canada's labor market showed signs of strain in July, shedding a net 2,800 jobs as gains in full-time positions were offset by losses in part-time work. Despite this, the unemployment rate held steady at a 30-month high of 6.4%, highlighting the challenges faced by an economy struggling to keep pace with rapid population growth. This data, which fell short of analysts' expectations for a net gain of 22,500 jobs, reflects broader concerns about economic stability, especially in the wake of a similar rise in the U.S. jobless rate that has rattled markets and fueled recession fears. With financial markets now pricing in the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in the Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest rate at its next meeting, and nearly three cuts anticipated by year’s end, the latest employment figures seem unlikely to significantly alter the central bank’s trajectory. The persistent rise in the unemployment rate, which has climbed by 0.7 percentage points since January, coupled with a decline in the labor force participation rate to a 26-year low (excluding the pandemic year), paints a challenging picture for Canada's job market. Young workers, in particular, are facing a tougher environment, potentially leading many to pause or halt their job search efforts altogether. In response to the report, the Canadian dollar dipped slightly, while bond yields also fell, reflecting the market's subdued reaction. Wage growth for permanent employees slowed to an annual rate of 5.2%, down from 5.6% in June, a key metric closely watched by the Bank of Canada due to its implications for inflation. As the goods-producing sectors saw a modest increase in employment, led by construction and utilities, the services sector experienced a notable decline, particularly in wholesale and retail trade, as well as finance-related jobs. #CanadaEconomy #Unemployment #JobMarket #BankOfCanada #InterestRates #WageGrowth #FinancialMarkets #RecessionFears #LaborMarket https://lnkd.in/duAQh7Wk

Canada’s unemployment rate fell as the economy produced more new jobs than expected, bolstering the Bank of Canada’s case for gradual rate cuts and raising hopes of a soft landing. The jobless rate dropped to 6.5% in September as the country added 46,700 new roles, Statistics Canada reported Friday. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had expected unemployment to tick up to 6.7% and a gain of 27,000 jobs. It’s the first time the unemployment rate has fallen since January. The growth was led by full-time positions, which surged by 112,000 on the month, while part-time roles fell by 65,300. The private sector was also a strong driver, adding 61,200 jobs.

More signs of a cooling in today's jobs report. Canadian employment was largely unchanged for second straight month, and the only reason unemployment didn't rise further was because of decline in the labour force (people working or looking for work). Canada's economy isn’t growing enough to consistently add jobs and absorb people looking for work, particularly among youth and newcomers. This report reinforces our call for another 25 basis point interest rate cut in September. Slack has built up in the labour market, and it's only a matter of time before persistent wage pressures start to relax. In Alberta, jobs and the unemployment rate held steady last month. Year-over-year job growth has slowed, though composition of gains (mostly full-time and private sector) remains more favourable than national trends. For more, see today's 24: https://lnkd.in/e6GGEiif

July 5, 2024 Weaker-than-expected Jobs Report Keeps Further BoC Rate Cuts In Play. Weaker-than-expected June jobs report keeps BOC rate cuts in play Canadian employment data, released today by Statistics Canada, showed a marked slowdown, which historically would have been a harbinger of recession. This cycle, immigration has augmented the growth of the labour force and consumer spending, forestalling a significant economic downturn. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada will continue to cut interest rates by at least 175 basis points through next year. Whether they do so at their next meeting on July 24 will depend on the June inflation data released on July 16. Canada shed 1,400 jobs last month, following a 26,700 increase in May. Economists had been expecting a stronger showing. Monthly job gains have averaged around 30,000 in the past year, while labour force growth has been more than 50,000, causing the jobless rate to rise. Full-time jobs declined marginally while part-time work edged upward. Job losses in June were led by decreases in transportation and warehousing, information and recreation, and wholesale and retail trade. Regionally, jobs decreased in Quebec but rose in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador. Population growth isn’t likely to slow shortly, meaning that anything short of about a 45k employment gain will increase the jobless rate. The jobless rate rose to 6.4%, up two ticks from a month earlier and 1.6 percentage points above the July 2022 cycle low. It is also the highest level since 2017 (excluding the pandemic). The rising unemployment rate aligned with the Bank of Canada’s rhetoric that higher interest rates damaged the labour market and strengthened the case for further rate cuts to support the economy. Total hours worked were down 0.4% in June. On a year-over-year basis, total hours worked were up 1.1%. Average hourly wages among employees increased 5.4% in June on a year-over-year basis, following growth of 5.1% in May (not seasonally adjusted). This won’t sit well with the central bank’s Governing Council, but they realize that wage inflation is a lagging economic indicator, and rapidly rising unemployment will ultimately dampen wage inflation. Bottom Line Traders in overnight swaps increased their bets that the Bank of Canada will cut borrowing costs again in July, putting the odds at around two-thirds, up from around 55% before the release. In a speech last week, Macklem said it’s “not surprising” that wages are moderating more slowly than inflation because wages tend to lag the trend in job growth. He also said the unemployment rate could rise further, but a significant increase isn’t needed to get inflation back to the 2% target. Please Note:  The source of this article is from https://lnkd.in/gYh6WqHC

🍁📈 Breaking News: Canadian unemployment rate drops, but there is much more to the story. Canada’s latest monthly unemployment rates are in. This data not only reflects the job market’s health but also hints at future economic trends. Whether you’re a job seeker, business owner, or investor, these figures have implications for us all. Let’s unpack what this means for the Canadian economy and how it might influence your financial strategy. 💡💼 #CanadianEconomy #UnemploymentRate #EconomicTrends #JobMarket #FinancialStrategy #EconomicGrowth #CanadaJobs #MarketInsights #EconomicForecast #InvestInCanada #BusinessImpact #EmploymentData #EconomicAnalysis #FinancialPlanning #CareerOpportunities #EconomicPolicy #NationalEconomy #JobCreation #EconomicHealth #FinancialWellbeing #InvestmentOpportunities #EconomicOutlook #ProfessionalGrowth #EconomicDevelopment #FutureTrends https://lnkd.in/d5FjTbcp

🍁📈 Canada's Labor Market: Heating Up, But Not Without its Groove!📊🔍 Breaking down the latest numbers from Statistics Canada like a cool beat, we see a mixed tune in the labor market landscape. Here's the lowdown: 👊 Job Additions Throw a Punch: Employers pulled a surprise move by adding a solid 40,700 jobs last month—beating the market's modest expectations. Yet, the unemployment rate decided to show off a 0.1 percentage point increase, hitting 5.8%. 💼 Unemployment Rate Takes a Stroll: Despite the small uptick, the unemployment rate is keeping it real—steady vibes in recent months after a bit of a climb last year. 💰 Wage Growth: A Smooth Operator: The Bank of Canada is all about that wage growth, and it showed a bit of a slowdown for the second straight month. Could be a sign of some labor market chill as population growth outpaces hiring. 📉Canada vs. the U.S. Dance-off: Comparing moves with our southern neighbor, Canada's unemployment rate edged up to 5.0% while the U.S. added a hefty 275,000 jobs. Both experiencing a cool-down in wage gains. 🌐 Global Economic Beat: Canada's labor market seems to be grooving to the tune of high rates, aligning with the Bank of Canada's laid-back stance. They're waiting for more signs of that chill wage growth before thinking about rate cuts. 💡 Market Insights Boogie: According to Royce Mendes from Desjardins Capital Markets, the economy isn't hitting a sour note just yet. The data jives with the central bank's cautious optimism, showing a gradual adjustment to the economic groove. 📊 Labor Force Dynamics Dancefloor: Labor force participation? Holding steady at 65.3%. Total hours worked? A modest bump. But keep an eye on the employment ratio—it's dipped a bit, hinting at potential shifts in the labor market melody. 🕺 Job Type Breakdown Shuffle: All the added jobs in February were on the full-time dance floor, overshadowing a dip in part-time moves. Self-employed roles took a spin, marking a twist in the employment rhythm. 🤔 What's Next in the Playlist: Despite the population surge, economists like Andrew Grantham from CIBC Capital Markets note a slow dance of labor market conditions. The central bank's high policy rate suggests they're savoring the slow burn. 📉🔄 Wage Growth Groove: Average hourly wages for the work crew showed softer growth at 4.9%, down from January's 5.3%. Still got that beat going, outpacing broader annual inflation. 🎶 Key Takeaway: The labor market jam continues, with its own set of vibes. Stay tuned for more twists and turns as the track unfolds!🎤 #CanadaJobsJam #EconomicGroove #LaborMarketMoves #BankOfCanadaTunes

In August 2024, Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.6%, up from 6.4% in July. The economy added 22,000 jobs, but this increase did not keep pace with population growth. Employment grew in educational services, health care, and finance, but declined in other areas like professional services and utilities. Students, especially those returning to school, faced a difficult job market with an unemployment rate of 16.7% for the summer, up from 12.9% last year. Black students had the highest unemployment rate among student groups at 29.5%. Despite these challenges, wages for workers rose by 5% year-over-year, reaching an average of $35.16 per hour. However, wage growth was flat for recent immigrants compared to a 6.3% increase for more established immigrants and a 6% increase for Canadian-born workers. Insights: Job Market Strain: The modest job growth relative to population increase suggests a strained job market, particularly affecting students and marginalized groups. Sector Discrepancies: Job gains were concentrated in specific sectors, indicating uneven recovery across the economy. Wage Trends: While overall wages are rising, recent immigrants are not seeing the same benefits, highlighting a disparity in economic gains. Monetary Policy Impact: The rise in unemployment follows recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, suggesting ongoing efforts to stimulate economic growth amid a sluggish job market.