We’re actively monitoring and analyzing the breakup event in Low Earth Orbit (#LEO) involving a Chinese rocket body, CZ-6A. Our radar data indicates this event occurred on 6 August at ~20:10 UTC at ~810 km. It resulted in at least 700 debris fragments and potentially more than 900. This event followed the launch of CZ-6A on 6 August at ~06:42 UTC and the deployment of its 18 payloads. These payloads are publicly reported to be the first batch of satellites for the Qianfan communications mega-constellation, operated by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology. The image below shows a heavy distribution of debris in-plane (spanning over 1000 seconds) with the expected 18 satellites deployed, as observed by our radar in Western Australia. What’s the significance? This is the second time a CZ-6A rocket body has recently experienced a significant breakup event in LEO. On 12 November 2022, a CZ-6A rocket body exploded in the most densely populated region in LEO (800 km to 900 km). The resulting 500+ debris fragments were distributed between ~320 km and ~1,500 km. The collision probability at the center of the debris cloud at 830 km increased by 9%. Our analysis indicated that the event was likely triggered by an issue related to the spacecraft’s propulsion system and not a collision-induced fragmentation. (Learn more: https://lnkd.in/gbcNeWW6) These breakup events demonstrate why it’s critical we continue to track abandoned rocket bodies. Today, there are nearly 1000 abandoned rocket bodies averaging 1,500 kg each in LEO — and that number continues to grow, posing a significant risk to the space environment. While Russia and the U.S. have improved their “rocket body abandonment behavior” over the last 20 years, the relative contribution by other countries has grown by a factor of five and China by 50x. (Learn more: https://lnkd.in/gb8zanYy) Safe space operations practices and responsible behavior, such as not abandoning derelict objects in long-lived orbits, must be enforced to ensure levels of collision risk remain manageable in LEO. These events also highlight the increasing demand on space situational awareness and space operations systems. Integrating commercial capabilities, like LeoLabs', build resiliency within these systems and enable them to scale alongside the growth of threatening events in LEO. We’ll continue to monitor and analyze the resulting debris cloud from this most recent event on 6 August, and conduct a breakup analysis to understand the potential cause. More details to follow. #SpaceSafety #SpaceSustainability
While a global agreement for space is essential, the reality is that not all nations are likely to comply. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) serves as a cautionary example—despite clear rulings, some countries blatantly disregard international law. This raises concerns about their willingness to honor future space agreements when the outcomes are unfavorable.
Did you happen to observe any debris following the CZ-6A launches on 26 March 2024 or 5 July 2024? (s2a systems posted on Twitter and on LinkedIn they had optically observed debris near the R/Bs)
I wonder if you’ll see any secondary breakups since it’s in the same plane as the payloads
Thank God for LeoLabs space traffic monitoring, and ability to publicly post this information. The existential question that comes to mind is whether this repeated, negligent outcome will continue and when it may deny space access to other enterprises?
I see a lot of risk going on around here. This issue needs more visibility. Thanks for posting this.
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Natasha Pauli for your workshop. Sascha Schediwy Danail Obreschkow
Nine HUNDRED
Director, Lab for Space Research, HKU
2moWe need stronger international and enforceable global compliance infrastructure to ensure everything that goes up comes down or goes to safe distant orbits as soon as useful satellite life expires and that rocket bodies are also part of such regulation and enforcement or else the Kessler syndrome risk just get more real by the day. If that does transpire, perhaps as early as the middle of the next decade our modern lives will end. Most people simply do not realise how much of our society depends on data and services from satellites in Low Earth Orbi.