Magnus Hornø Gottlieb’s Post

Weekly power simulation, week 28 of 2024 A pretty trivial week, with low winds, high solar output. Power-to-X running at 58%, which is O-K, I guess, but by no means impressive. Still, 100% renewable power to cover the load. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 23 of 2024 Another beautiful week in the Danish energy system, with lots of wind and solar, making up 100% of power demand, plus enabling hydrogen and power-to-X to run at 91% capacity. Roughly 20% of renewable generation is 'excess' to be either exported, or curtailed. Power demand tends to be lower in the summer - at least, it is today, which is what this simulation is based on. Denmark consumes about 20-25% less power in June, compared to January (respectively 3.7GW and 4.7GW on average) ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 11 of 2024 No such thing as perfect in the energy system - it's all trade offs and balances... HOWEVER, last week was pretty darn near perfect in our simulation. Wind and solar directly made up 97.2% of Danish power demand, but when adding storage and demand-side flexibility, Denmark was powered by 100% solar and wind last week! 97.2% renewable share year-to-date. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 12 of 2024 Yet another case of wind, solar, storage, and flexibility interacting to ensure Danish power demand was matched 100% by wind and solar last week. And with the beautiful transition from wind-solar-wind on Wednesday, I think it justifies a 'feels good' meme. 97.5% renewable share year-to-date. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 4 of 2024 Really windy week. Future-Denmark ran on 100% renewable energy, with lots to spare. So far, this year, we're at 93.2% wind and solar generation. In case you were wondering - I'm not the only one running this sort of thought experiment. Beyond David Osmond's model (link at the bottom), Tom Brown recently shared his own simulation of the future German grid here: https://lnkd.in/dFvuVMTK Agora Energiewende has its "agorameter" here: https://lnkd.in/d9cUiAwX And Energycharts.info has a simulation here: https://lnkd.in/drYTWTUc There are probably many more. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 25 of 2024 For many weeks now, renewable electricity has been abundant in the daytime, thanks to 24GW solar PV in our simulation. However, night time can present the occasional challenge, if there's a wind lull. Most times, the model's 36GWh battery storage kicks in and is enough to fill the gap. However this Thursday night, batteries wasn't enough. Fortunately, however, the simulated Danish power grid was still able to maintain 100% renewable energy share last week, by activating 16.3 GWh's worth of demand side flexibility, namely EV charging, heat pumps and data centers. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

EcoDataTrend is commencing a "Power Up Your Knowledge" series where critical concepts within the energy transition space would be explained in simple terms. This would be done on a weekly basis, exploring each concept in detail for better understanding. This week's #knowledgebite is "Grid Integration" 👉 Grid integration is the process of connecting and effectively incorporating renewable energy sources, like solar ☀ and wind 🌪 power, into the existing electricity grid ⚡ 👉 The grid must constantly balance the amount of electricity produced with the amount being used. Too much or too little electricity can cause problems like blackouts or equipment damage ☣ 👉 Effective grid integration involves using batteries to store excess energy produced during peak production times (e.g., sunny or windy days), releasing it during low production times 🔋 #powerupyourknowledge

Weekly power simulation, week 8 of 2024 This week saw excellent and very energetic weather, displaying plenty of wind and a quite nice solar generation throughout. The crescendo was on Friday as the low pressure wind system / storm "Rolf" passed Scandinavia, causing wind generation to break my scale. 99.4% renewable energy share. On another note: Today, the friends over at Green Power Denmark released an analysis looking deeper into the future balancing challenges of the Danish energy system. Like me, they conclude that in the future (2030), the high share of solar and wind, together with legacy installations, will suffice 99% of the time. However, the challenge is the 1% with extreme weather - i.e. cold and quiet winter days, where Denmark may need up to 2.6GW additional dispatchable generation. They conclude there's a need to introduce new capacity mechanisms to ensure that is in place. And also recommend a politically agreed storage target, and better market driven incentives for flexible consumption. As an thought provoking data point: Green Power Denmark mentions Denmark would have about 5.6GWh of storage in place by 2030, if we follow the same trajectory as Germany. That's about 40x more than what is expected by the Danish Energy Agency's standard assumptions (app. 130MWh by 2030). Personally, I'm leaning towards GWh more than MWh. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 24 of 2024 For six weeks in a row, Denmark has been powered by 100% wind and solar energy, recalling the four hour shortfall on May 8th, where thermal generation or imports had to step in. Honestly, I think this six-week streak may continue for a while, noting the strong nexus of storage and solar in the summer time 😎 ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Recent excellent analysis (https://lnkd.in/eBtaGbyA) by Ember again shows that electricity grids may well become the biggest bottleneck of the #energytransition. As solar and wind generation will be the working horses of the transition and should preferably be connected to electricity demand centres over the largest geographical area possible, it seems to me that even perceived over-investment by system operators would still be a "no-regrets" option. #energy #renewableenergy #decarbonisation #futureproof #smarterenergy