Mark Montgomery’s Post

"In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." Today's Tea Leaves, with sources. Connect the dots, and where does the current lead? 1) Etsy is cracking down on AI-generated products with new “Creativity Standards” that require sellers to label whether there was “human involvement” in making a product. TC 2) Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months as its poorly trained forces struggle to break through Ukrainian defenses that are now reinforced with Western munitions, U.S. officials say. NYT   3) Saudi Arabia privately hinted earlier this year it might sell some European debt holdings if the Group of Seven decided to seize almost $300 billion of Russia’s frozen assets, people familiar with the matter said. CNN   4) George Stephanopoulos, the ABC news anchor who recently interviewed President Biden about his fitness for the presidential race, was caught on camera Tuesday indicating that he doesn’t think Biden can serve another four years. WaPo   5) Sam Altman and Arianna Huffington explained their Thrive AI Health project, which aims to build a "customized, hyper-personalized AI health coach." (Time)   6) Microsoft and Apple relinquished the chance to be observers on OpenAI’s board in a surprise decision that underscores growing scrutiny from antitrust regulators over the relationship between Big Tech and AI. BBG   7) Speaking of Apple…Apple saw big PC unit growth in Q2 (+20.8%) while HPQ (HP Inc.) rose 1.8% and DELL (Dell) dipped 2.4%. IDC 8) Verily, Alphabet’s precision health company, announced its plans for Lightpath1, a personalized AI powered chronic care solution. The first offering, Lightpath Metabolic, will help members with cardiometabolic diseases achieve and maintain their health goals. It is planned to be available for open enrollment in early 2026. The firm 9) The $13.8 billion valuation investors recently gave ScaleAI, which provides human labor to help AI makers train their models, is "almost certainly too high." (The Information) 10) A large majority of American voters are skeptical of the argument that the U.S. should race ahead to build ever more powerful AI unconstrained by domestic regulations, in an effort to compete with China, according to new polling. Both Republicans and Democrats in support of the government placing limits on AI development in favor of safety and national security. TIME

One of the highlights from the AI Rountable in February this year, relating to discussion around the AI Bill. I found Dr. Brynjolfsson’ quote immensely valuable. Thank you professor Erik Brynjolfsson - and thank you Nita Farahany for sharing 🙏🏼 “The roundtable was led by the academics and spent an equal amount of time discussing three topics: worker equity in the age of AI; understanding deception and manipulation of AI; and investing in education, mental health, and digital citizenship in the age of AI.” ““The problem is that many of our key decision makers have skewed incentives that focus too much on substituting for humans and not enough of augmenting their capabilities, versus America’s tax code taxes capital at much lower rates than labor,” Brynjolfsson said. “This means business owners are steered towards replacing humans with machines wherever they can.”” ““Erik Brynjolfsson, a professor at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, echoed Hockett in saying- that Congress must create “an alternative” that encourages “entrepreneurs to invest in humans and create new kinds of value.” #ethics #AI #neuroscience #roundtable #leaders #bill #law #tech #future #minds #business #innovation

Thanks to Associated Industries of Florida for convening this vital discussion. With AI and machine learning already being widely used in business applications, it is crucial that Florida gets this right. Unfortunately, based on Congressional hearings, lawmakers may not fully understand the unintended consequences of their legislative efforts. AI is enabling faster execution with less waste, making operations more sustainable and filling labor shortage gaps in some factory jobs. It's being used in sales, supply chain, customer service, logistics, and pretty much every level of an enterprise's operations. However, it's also leading to job displacement, generating an army of professionals who will need skills training to remain competitive. While government involvement has the potential to be helpful, it can also add costs and complexities, hindering productivity, and making Florida businesses less competitive in the global marketplace. That's why it's essential that businesses are at the table while these decisions are being made. This coalition is a step in the right direction.

Tony Blair’s AI mania sweeps Britain’s new government by Politico via DNyuz ([Global] oracle cloud) URL: https://ift.tt/2uJ8CE0 LONDON — On stage at the Tony Blair Institute’s annual conference, five days after the July general election, the eponymous founder regaled the audience with evangelical zeal. The freshly removed Tory government had bequeathed Labour a “ghastly inheritance,” the former prime minister said. Luckily, he had a solution. “There is only one game changer in our view, [and] that is harnessing … the 21st century technological revolution,” he said. Britain must grasp “the full opportunity of governing in the age of artificial intelligence.” “In this new world, companies and nations will either rise or fall.” Such claims will be familiar to anyone who’s paid attention to Blair’s interventions in past years. His think tank’s central animating force is the revolutionary potential of technology. AI is touted as a silver bullet for ailing public services, government inefficiency and a stagnant economy. With a Labour government in power in the U.K. for the first time in 14 years, Blair’s influence is growing. A tight knot of Blairite ministers is carrying forward his vision for the power of AI to transform government and public services. The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) event featured high-profile appearances from Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Cabinet Office fixer Pat McFadden, invigorated from the recent election that saw Labour win a landslide victory. Meanwhile, Technology Secretary Peter Kyle has made driving digital transformation across Whitehall a top priority in his new role. “We’re putting AI at the heart of the government’s agenda to boost growth and improve our public services,” Kyle said recently. The messaging was echoed by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who said AI would have a crucial role to play in helping the government find £3 billion in savings after an unexpected “black hole” was discovered in the public finances. The plans have tech firms — some of whom have partnerships with Blair’s institute — swarming, lured by the tantalizing prospect of millions of pounds of public contracts.  But while most agree that AI holds promise for the public sector, some warn against “snake oil” salesmen and caution about embedding the sometimes unreliable and opaque tech into the heart of government. The pitch The TBI has claimed that integrating AI into the heart of government could save up to £40 billion annually and shed one million civil servants. In a flurry of reports released to coincide with the TBI conference, the institute also claimed that more than 40 percent of the tasks performed by public sector workers could be partly automated by AI-based software. Some of the tasks envisaged as ripe for AI assistance include helping to match supply of public services to demand, accelerating the processing of planning applications and benefits claims, supporting research and drafting n...

I'm not a Politician, but here is a message for whoever forms the UK Government from July 5 2024! - 1️⃣ AI will change the world, - 2️⃣ Britain is currently a leader in AI, - 3️⃣ Learn from the past. Please invest in AI across the Economy to drive the UK forward! I was reading a post from David Knott former client and currently UK Government CTO, giving a history lesson on Computing, and this gives a very cautionary tale of British success in Innovation and abject failure in execution. In 1943 Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, said, "I think there's a world market for maybe five computers." Meanwhile, a largely unheralded Post Office Engineer, Tommy Flowers was building the first of 10 Collossus (the first electronic) computers, that were in use through 1944-5 and were rather more critical than other more heralded work at Bletchley Park in helping the Allied War effort... Because his work was Top Secret, Tommy could never get investment to build commercial systems after WWII, and his work was largely forgotten (outside GCHQ) until the 1970s... and Britain the world leader in computing, slipped rapidly down the league tables in using Computing to drive the Economy. We're at the same point with AI. Whilst, the UK is not at the same level as the US or China, the CEOs of AI in Google and Microsoft living and working in the UK... We have an opportunity to capitalise on this, and it is not through the 'AI Safety Institute' - an interesting and important organisation, but not one that will generate jobs or growth. Instead, it is investing in companies and infrastructure that is data enabled and AI Powered! So for the next UK Prime Minister, I paraphrase Satya Nadella 'AI will not replace companies and economies, but companies and economies that lead with AI, will replace those that do not!'

The end of this post is brilliant! Eddie Short paraphrases Satya Nadella here: 'AI will not replace companies and economies, but companies and economies that lead with AI, will replace those that do not!'

Biden Wants to Put AI on a Leash Bill Clinton’s regulators, by contrast, produced prosperity by encouraging freedom on the internet. By Ted Cruz and Phil Gramm March 25, 2024 4:22 pm ET The arrival of a new productive technology doesn’t guarantee prosperity. Prosperity requires a system, governed by the rule of law, in which economic actors can freely implement a productive idea and compete for customers and investors. The internet is the best recent example of this. The Clinton administration took a hands-off approach to regulating the early internet. In so doing it unleashed extraordinary economic growth and prosperity. The Biden administration, by contrast, is impeding innovation in artificial intelligence with aggressive regulation. This could deny America global leadership in AI and the prosperity that leadership would bring. The Clinton administration established a Global Information Infrastructure framework in 1997 defining the government’s role in the internet’s development with a concise statement of principles: “address the world’s newest technologies with our Nation’s oldest values . . . First, do no harm.” The administration embraced the principle that “the private sector should lead [and] the Internet should develop as a market driven arena, not a regulated industry.” The Clinton regulators also established the principle that “government should avoid undue restrictions on electronic commerce, . . . refrain from imposing new and unnecessary regulations, bureaucratic procedures or new taxes and tariffs.”

Interesting ft article! Marietje Schaake Schaake discusses the idea of taxing AI companies to address societal challenges such as global job losses and labor market disruptions. We are living in a critical point in technology policy.

Reading to the end to find this: “Another concern is how it might change the nature of the relationship between government and citizens. “When you insert a technology into a system or service, it has a ripple effect … It changes what people expect, and it changes how people behave,”….” This rings vey true. AI interventions need to be designed and tested, putting the needs, relationships and behaviours of people at the heart of success. I wish more commentary would focus on this, rather than so-called efficiency. Putting efficiency before effectiveness is like putting the cart before the horse. Design to be effective and with soft edges (which includes those messy things called human relationships) first. Perhaps AI will be part of the answer, but let’s not assume.

The AI world tour continues--virtually, this week. Excited about some leadership engagements around the world that will happen via "Teams." In the meantime, here are today's tea leaves, with sources. Connect the dots, and what do you see coming from the future, back? 1) Russia’s attempts to conclude a major gas pipeline deal with China have run aground over what Moscow sees as Beijing’s unreasonable demands on price and supply levels. Beijing’s tough stance on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline underscores how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left President Vladimir Putin increasingly dependent on Chinese leader Xi Jinping for economic support. FT   2) Claudia Sheinbaum is set to become Mexico’s first female leader after preliminary results showed her on course to win an overwhelming election victory. The leftwing former Mexico City mayor, a close ally of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, was leading by nearly 30 percentage points, according to a partial official count early on Monday. FT 3) Sony data shows how hard it is to get gamers to upgrade consoles: both the PS4 (launched 11 years ago) and PS5 (launched four years ago) have ~49m monthly active users. Ars Technica. 4) The Gaza peace plan talked about on Fri by Biden seems unlikely to be adopted (at least in the near-term) as Israel insists it will push ahead to achieve its full war objectives (two of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners threatened to quit his gov’t if the plan was adopted). NYT   6) The U.S. economy continues to lose momentum. Growth hasn’t yet slowed to the point that it would be a concern to policymakers, but it might soon if current trends continue. WSJ   7) Consumers have reached their limit following years of aggressive price hikes, and companies will be forced to become more promotional as a result. NYT   8) 10% of registered Republicans were less likely to vote for Trump after the felony conviction (that same poll showed Biden with a 2-point lead among registered voters, up from a tie earlier in the month). RTRS  9) Google says it “made more than a dozen technical improvements” to its AI Overview system after some recommendation gems, like telling people to add one-eighth cup of glue to pizza sauce to keep toppings from sliding off. 10) A Chinese spacecraft touched down on the moon Sunday to collect samples of soil and rocks from the moon’s far side. AP