Mark Moss’ Post

Transcript

This is why the government can't afford a recession now. Investors and market analysts, they've all been calling for a recession. So far. They've all been wrong, even though the economic indicators are all screaming it should be here. But they all seem to be missing something big, and it's been the key to my research in getting this call right over the last 16 months or so. I'm going to break down two reasons why the government cannot afford a recession warning. It's not what most people are expecting. First, let's just start with #1. The government can't stop spending. You know how government politicians. Are spending your money. If a little deficit spending is good, then a whole lot more should be better, right? At least for them. Why? For them? Because it provides a short term boost in economic activity which gets them reelected to office. The second thing is that the government, the economy, can't afford a recession. What does that mean? Well, if we look at the deficit, we can see that a recession is not a policy option for them. the US fiscal deficit, which is already at recession level spending could easily explode to 3.9. To 5.5 trillion if a recession were to hit, because as we discussed earlier, a recession would cause tax receipts to plunge even further than they are, they have to keep borrowing, but unfortunately they're borrowing from less and less people that want to lend. And if there's a recession which they can't afford, it only makes it multiple times worse, not better. Which is why I've been bullish on the reverse market crash I've been talking about for a while. What do you think?