The news about Mars/Kellanova has many people asking the question: Is this the start of a new wave of industry consolidation?
Looking over 30 years of industry performance can provide some helpful insights on the historical impact of consolidation (take the below as directionally good enough diligence for a LinkedIn post):
· The top players have remained largely the same over 30 years if you count the shuffling of Kraft, Heinz, & Mondelez in aggregate over the period.
· This group of food companies represents a smaller share of global food today than they did in 1993 (moving from about 9% down to 8%). Despite lots of M&A activity, the global market has grown at a faster rate with the top companies who just beat the 2.5% rate of annual inflation.
· EBIT margin for this top group has expanded about 400bps in aggregate. While positive, you don’t have to run the math to know many of these deals under-delivered their promised returns.
Have some good deals been done? Of course, but in aggregate, the results don’t meet the hype. It’s hard to see the logic in a new round of industry consolidation, but many deals have been done without letting math get in the way of egos.
I don’t believe that Mars + Kellanova is starting a new M&A cycle; rather, this deal is a variant of portfolio optimization like Unilever’s spin out of ice cream, General Mills’ proposed sale of Yoplait, and Kellogg’s split into Kellanova and WK Kelloggs. This is a shell game with an aim to increase growth exposure and leverage capabilities/channels rather than drive corporate size. I wouldn’t assume that Mars is finished—they have some misfit businesses they will likely jettison for the same reasons as UL, GIS, and K. These deals will require some financial magic because they drive negative synergies, but the hope is that one company’s trash will be another’s treasure. Among these remnants (WK Kelloggs, Yoplait, and Unilever Ice Cream), it’s worth noting that none have yet to be picked up by another player.
What are your thoughts?
#CPG #FMCG #Kellanova #Mars #M&A #IndustryConsolidation
Staff Infrastructure Engineer @ Rippling | ex - Gemini, Zomato, Tower Research, Arista Networks
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