Keen on data, charts and markets. Specialise in Ag commodity markets and currencies. Co-creator of AgWatchers podcast. Founder/Director of Episode3.net. Columnist for The Guardian, WA Business News & Farming Ahead mag.
How diversified were Australia's agricultural export market over the 2023/24 FY? This analysis takes a look at some selected markets showing key destination market share by trade value and there are some surprising results. Read more below - https://lnkd.in/ggpTwkmg
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 is the key global reference for medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets, and this year’s edition marks the 20th edition of the joint publication. For the last 20 years, the report has analysed trends in the demographic and economic drivers of agricultural commodity supply and demand, projected the shifts in production and consumption locations, and assessed the resulting changes in international agricultural trade patterns.
#AgOutlook
Ohio’s Agricultural Exports Fuel Asia's Growing Demand: As Asia’s population expands, the demand for high-quality agricultural products continues to rise. In our latest ESSEA Foresight article, we explore how Ohio's corn and grain exports play a pivotal role in meeting this demand, with insights from recent trade visits.
Discover how U.S. farmers are supporting global markets and the future of agricultural trade.
🎉 Help us celebrate #WorldTradeWeek by discovering the latest facts and data on U.S. agricultural trade. The 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural exports during the 2023 calendar year, focusing on top markets and top commodities. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) also offers an interactive visualization that lets you explore the 2023 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook data in more depth.
Explore the tool at https://lnkd.in/exeQ3z-P.
#exports#trade#food#agriculture#usda#data
The Outlook does not look too good for nutrition in low and middle income countries unfortunately:
"By 2033, [...] Dietary patterns are even more rigid in low-income countries where the share of dietary energy from animal sources remains unchanged and the bulk of calories (71%) continues to come from staples. This slow transition towards animal-source and other nutritious foods in low- and middle-income economies illustrates the challenges in achieving the SDG objective of improved nutrition for global populations by 2030. Nevertheless, despite the limited change in diets, the Outlook projects additional consumption of high-value food items for both low- and middle-income countries, in line with economic growth. "
Just out!
OECD - OCDE - FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033
The latest edition of #AgOutlook provides an assessment of the prospects of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets over the coming decade.
https://lnkd.in/dp4gCXDq
📖Yesterday, I have participated in the recent OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 ceremony online and read them! So interesting !
🔎 And here’s my insight of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033.
The report provides a holistic view of the main crops market: cereals, oilseeds and oilseed products, sugar, meat, dairy products, fish, biofuels, cotton, and other products (roots and tubers, pulses, and bananas and major tropical fruits).
🔻 OECD / 🔺 China and India
The influence of OECD countries in the global import and export market for five representative commodities has declined, in the meanwhile, China is one of the world's largest importers and global production of India has grown up.
📶 Except for sugar, commodity prices are close to or slightly below the ten-year average.
The effects of the Covid-19 outbreak, and obstacles of global value chains has been alleviated since the peak in 2022 while the economic recovery is still quite sluggish.
⚠ India, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Near East and North Africa regions are anticipated to achieve significant production growth. However, Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a major importer of food to feed its growing population.
🤔 In depth: Sub-Saharan Africa Food Security and Can AfCFTA Be a Game Changer?
By 2033, food crop production in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to expand by almost 30% but they will still be one of the largest sources of additional food demand due to the growth of population. There is a depressing forecast that the region’s trade deficit in major food items will deepen over the coming decade, as maize is the only self-sufficient staple (vegetable oil, rice, and wheat are historically highly dependent on import and wheat is imported mainly by Russia and Ukraine).
Regionalization and agricultural value chains for prioritized commodities are an important strategy of the African Union through the implementation of the AfCFTA. Their focus is on driving agrifood system transformation, increasing productivity, and promoting agro-processing growth by linking producers and agro-parks in surplus areas to markets and areas of need.
The success of the agreement will ultimately depend on how successfully non-tariff measures are achieved and how high costs of trade and logistics are managed. Furthermore, the trade of fuels and fertilizers will indirectly affect the production of crops in the Sub-Saharan Africa region.
Longer text 👇
https://lnkd.in/efpc2sgV
Just out!
OECD - OCDE - FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033
The latest edition of #AgOutlook provides an assessment of the prospects of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets over the coming decade.
https://lnkd.in/dp4gCXDq
What is the downstream economic and employment impact of an agricultural commodity produced far away from its ultimate use, which also speaks to the importance of the infrastructure that supports that sector? Here's the novel method behind the multiplier... #agriculturecounts#broadband#ruraleconomy#internationaltrade
USDA’s Economic Research Service produces the Agricultural Trade Multipliers—a data product that provides annual estimates of the economic output and number of jobs supported by U.S. agricultural trade, with detail for 124 product groups. This technical bulletin outlines the methodology now used by ERS researchers to estimate the Agricultural Trade Multipliers: https://lnkd.in/gjJNmHAy
🚀 Key Insights from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 🚀
1. Emerging Economies: They have driven global agricultural and fisheries market developments over the last 20 years and will continue to do so over the next decade.
2. Shifting Influence: China's role in global food consumption is waning, while India and Southeast Asia rise with urban growth and affluence.
3. Calorie Intake: Middle-income countries will see a 7% increase in calorie intake, mainly from staples, livestock products, and fats. Low-income countries will grow by 4%, falling short of the UN's zero hunger goal by 2030.
4. GHG Emissions: Agricultural GHG emissions intensity will decline with productivity improvements, but total direct emissions will still rise by 5%.
5. Food Loss and Waste: Halving food waste could reduce GHG emissions by 4% and cut the number of undernourished people by 153 million by 2030.
6. Market Stability: Well-functioning international agricultural markets are vital for food security, with 20% of calories traded globally.
7.Commodity Prices: A slight fall in international commodity prices is projected over the next decade, though local retail prices may vary.
My take? Mostly on point #4 Halving food loss and waste by 2030 could yes revolutionize food security and cut GHG emissions. But we must really really ensure farmers' livelihoods aren't sacrificed over here...
OECD - OCDEFAO
Just out!
OECD - OCDE - FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033
The latest edition of #AgOutlook provides an assessment of the prospects of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets over the coming decade.
https://lnkd.in/dp4gCXDq