Matthew Tarka, AAMS® CRPS®’s Post

🌐 Global Markets Outlook: The Waiting Game 🌐 As we move through 2024, the markets continue to keep us on the edge of our seats. The latest "VanEck ViewPoint" offers a detailed analysis of the global economic and market landscape, highlighting key trends and uncertainties. 🔍 Key Insights: Election Year Impact: With over 80 countries involved in elections, political outcomes could significantly influence market dynamics. Central Bank Manoeuvres: The US Federal Reserve is aiming for a soft landing amidst mixed economic signals, while the European Central Bank's rate cuts respond to recessionary pressures in Europe. Sector Performances: Winners: Global carbon futures, emerging markets equities, and the IT sector have outperformed. Laggers: Japanese and Australian equities faced headwinds, particularly mid and small-caps in Australia. Inflation and Growth: US inflation remains above target, causing market jitters, while growth indicators show marginal softening, reflecting past interest rate hikes. Investment Strategy: As we navigate the second half of 2024, a selective approach to risk assets is prudent. Focus on earnings resiliency, strong balance sheets, and positive free cash flow. 💡 Advice for Australian Investors: Caution against over-exposure to household-dependent companies. Emphasize resilient earnings and solid balance sheets. Watch for the US dollar's trajectory and potential gold price movements. 🕰️ Patience is Key: Echoing Charlie Munger's wisdom, "Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait." Now is a time for strategic patience rather than trying to time the market. For those interested in a deeper dive into the current economic landscape and market trends, I highly recommend checking out the full report. Let's navigate these uncertain times with informed strategies and a steady focus on long-term goals. 📈🌍 #GlobalMarkets #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialAdviser #MarketTrends #VanEck #Australia

As we reach mid-year, it's crucial to review macroeconomic and policy developments, especially considering political volatility, global inflation targets, and economic growth. This year has seen lower bond volatility but higher micro volatility, with markets closely monitoring economic data and Central Banks' moves. Political events like recent elections in Mexico and India, anti-EU sentiment in France, and the upcoming US election add to the uncertainty. Global interest rate tightening is impacting growth, particularly in G7 countries, Australia, and New Zealand. The US's economic exceptionalism is waning, raising questions about the impact of a higher base rate. We expect a non-stimulatory global rate-cutting cycle in 2024, with challenges in achieving final inflation targets in the US and Australia. Despite past pessimism, bond markets have performed well and should continue providing stability as the risk of a "Black Swan" event rises. Staying informed, adaptable, and diversified will be crucial in navigating these unpredictable changes. https://lnkd.in/g-7sq5CZ

During the pandemic, we faced an unprecedented situation where governments shut down economies and subsequently brought them back to life. As a result of such measures, we faced a surge in interest rates, bond yields and debt in addition to rising inflation and labor market stress. Currently, we face new changes like war in oil economies, maturation in China, a focus on environmental policy as well as constant developments in artificial intelligence. Needless to say, we are in a new world. Read below to see what we can expect going forward and some key takeaways from the "old world". #newworld #yearahead #2024

Appetite for Risk Reignited? In today's market landscape, things seem to be on the upswing. Economic growth is ticking upward, inflation is easing, and corporate earnings are bolstering already rich valuations. This favorable environment, coupled with accommodating financial conditions, has reignited investors' appetite for risk. Central banks, too, are seen as reliable guardians, having managed to temper market expectations for interest rate cuts. However, there's a fine line to tread. Ease monetary policy too early, and there's a risk of needing to reverse course abruptly, potentially triggering a recession. Wait too long, and the cumulative effects of restrictive policies could push the economy into a downturn. Despite this seemingly idyllic scenario, concerns linger. The upcoming US election, for instance, looms large on investors' minds. Yet, even in the face of political uncertainty, central banks appear to have room to maneuver, with current policy still considered somewhat restrictive. Confident in the market's fundamentals and technical aspects, the investment outlook is adjusted. Wellington Management, an asset manager, offers a perspective on the near future. They are slightly bullish on global equities and credit spreads. While valuations are lofty, the positive economic backdrop and robust demand for income suggest they may remain elevated for some time. Within equities, they prefer the US and Japanese assets, where economic resilience and transformative technologies like AI bode well for future growth. In the US, particularly, the performance of tech giants underscores the sector's potential. Japan, too, offers promise, with recent wage increases expected to fuel consumer spending. In fixed income, they maintain a neutral stance on duration but see value in European government bonds compared to their US counterparts. Credit markets also present opportunities, with European high yield appearing particularly attractive. While there are signs of broadening in the equity rally, risks persist. Elevated geopolitical tensions, a resurgence in core inflation, or policy missteps could disrupt the current optimism. Nonetheless, the improving global economic landscape suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for investors. Read more: https://lnkd.in/ec_CZDm4 -------- Don't forget to ♻ so that others can also benefit. Share your thoughts down below #investments #capitalmarkets #geopolitics

Markets have persevered rather than surged but global economic growth shows signs of improvement, and the UK looks to have emerged from recession. Find out what's going on in the global economy and access our round-up of asset classes in the latest #RSMR video update. https://lnkd.in/e7QraYZW #globaleconomy #investmentinsights #inflation #interestrates #usemployment

Markets have persevered rather than surged but global economic growth shows signs of improvement, and the UK looks to have emerged from recession. Find out what's going on in the global economy and access our round-up of asset classes in the latest #RSMR video update. https://lnkd.in/e7QraYZW #globaleconomy #investmentinsights #inflation #interestrates #usemployment

The global economy is set to grow at its slowest pace since the pandemic, the World Bank has warned. It has forecast growth of just 2.4% in 2024 and stated higher interest rates were a major factor. Global trade and investment would continue to be stifled by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, it said. Outside of the pandemic, growth of 2.4% would be the weakest since the 2009-09 financial crisis. It said the resilience of the US economy meant last year's growth was likely to come at 2.6%. Indermit Gill, chief economist, at the World Bank Group said: "Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries - especially the poorest - stuck in a trap". Problems he explained include "paralyzing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of every three people." Global growth is at historically "mediocre" levels and growth in global trade remains sluggish, he added. Read more ➡️ https://buff.ly/3vsKxB9 The Scottish Chambers of Commerce Network is here to support your business - reach out to share your views, concerns and opportunities. #SCCnews #businesssupport #businessnetwork #businessvoice #businessleader Sign up for the Scottish Chambers of Commerce enewsletter at https://buff.ly/3CpsQnu

Navigating the Financial Landscape of 2024: A Glimpse into the Future" As we step further into 2024, the financial world presents a tapestry of moderating inflation and steady growth, signaling a potential soft landing for the global economy. Here’s a snapshot of the latest economic forecasts: Global Growth: Projected at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.2% for 2025, this year’s growth outlook is buoyed by unexpected resilience across the United States and key emerging markets, complemented by China’s fiscal support measures. Inflation Trends: With supply-side constraints easing and monetary policies tightening, inflation rates are on a quicker-than-anticipated decline. Expectations set global headline inflation to drop to 5.8% in 2024, further reducing to 4.4% in 2025. Balanced Risks: The scales of global growth teeter with balanced risks. On one hand, accelerated disinflation may relax financial conditions, while on the other, potential commodity price surges, China’s real estate challenges, or abrupt fiscal policy shifts pose significant threats. While the horizon gleams with cautious optimism, the complexity of our economic environment cannot be understated. Diverse factors continue to shape the path of global financial stability, demanding vigilance and adaptability from all market participants. https://lnkd.in/gptWUYii #FinancialOutlook2024 #EconomicGrowth #InflationControl #GlobalEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalHealth #FinancialStability

Many investors draw comfort from the fact that the world economy has a habit of defying gravity. In fact it has grown in 58 of the past 60 years, having overcome war, terrorism, political upheaval, energy crises and financial busts. And there is no reason to believe it can't build on that record over the rest of this decade - it will likely continue to advance year in, year out. Yet plenty of those same investors will also have noticed that the economy's ongoing expansion rests on ever more fragile foundations. Gone are the days of the Great Moderation, when global trade was flourishing, and inflation and interest rates were heading inexorably lower. That era has given way to a period that is decidedly less benign. So what are the main risks and opportunities for investors over the next 5 years? Read our Secular Outlook to find out more: https://lnkd.in/g-tZJhdd #investmentoutlook #assetallocation #secularoutlook

Higher interest rates aren’t going away anytime soon. But long-term investors stand to benefit despite what could be a bumpy transition. Read more in our 2024 global outlook summary: https://vgi.vg/485ZHu9 #VanguardInsights #2024outlook