MEGA GRAIN TRADING COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED ®’s Post

#MintCharts | A rise in #oil price remains a tail risk that no country can afford to ignore. With currency markets in turmoil, higher #crudeoil prices mean bigger import bills and a worsening trade deficit for top importers like #India and #China. However, oil exporters (Malaysia, US) are also not spared from the effects of rising pump prices.

The Indian government upholds its stance on retaining export curbs for essential commodities like wheat, rice, and sugar. Union Minister for Commerce, Piyush Goyal, affirms that there are no plans to lift these restrictions, nor will there be imports of this kind. These measures aim to maintain the domestic market's supply and control commodity prices. The restrictions, in place since May 2022, include a ban on wheat exports and a halt on non-basmati rice exports from July 2023. Restrictions have also extended to sugar exports. Despite this, India continues to support nations like Indonesia, Senegal, and Gambia by exporting rice and meeting their food security needs. This decision has ignited varied expert opinions, triggering a significant dialogue concerning economic strategies. With January 2023, reporting a four-month high retail inflation rate of 5.69%, balancing consumer and producer needs in the trade policy becomes a concerning challenge for the government. Join the discussion and read more about this in the article linked below. 🌾🍚🇮🇳 #India #ExportControl #Inflation #TradePolicy Article: [Read More Here](https://lnkd.in/dXpwUYVr)

The global commodity markets are all interconnected. Here is one recent example: Rice prices tumbled the most in more than 16 years in Asia as concerns over supply eased after #India relaxed some export restrictions. #Thai white rice 5% broken — an Asian benchmark — plunged about 11% to $509 a ton on Wednesday, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. That was the biggest decline in data compiled since May 2008, and extended a slide in prices to the lowest level in more than 15 months.

EM import prices and producer prices are correlated with China's export prices. In the context of persistent services sector inflation, and with quite a few EMs still reporting above-target headline inflation, we expect Chinese export price deflation to provide a helpful tailwind in the struggle to bring EM inflation back to target. Read more on our blog: https://okt.to/29PA43

EM import prices and producer prices are correlated with China's export prices. In the context of persistent services sector inflation, and with quite a few EMs still reporting above-target headline inflation, we expect Chinese export price deflation to provide a helpful tailwind in the struggle to bring EM inflation back to target. Read more on our blog: https://okt.to/CZdl7P

Chinese oil demand growth slowed in Q3 2023 due to weak domestic consumption and export challenges, with a modest recovery in October, but long-term prospects remain uncertain amid economic hurdles. #ChinaOilDemand #RefinerySlowdown #EconomicChallenges #OilMarket

"Why hasn't the crack in Crude Oil price reflected in the Rupee or Yields so far?" One of the drivers of improvement in India's trade deficit is POL (Petroleum & Products) exports. After the Russia Ukraine war India's refiners have refined and exported Russian crude to the world. India's POL exports have averaged 102 Million Tonnes (MnTn) from FY22 to FY24 (benefitting from Russia Ukraine war, up 36% vs FY19 number of 65 MnTn. During the same period, POL imports averaged 300 MnTn vs 281 MnTn in FY19, up just 7%. This means this is the first time that a falling price of Oil is incrementally subtracting from India's trade balance versus the last year. Although on an absolute basis it helps to reduce the deficit, because we are net importers. For refiners, crack spreads have already gone back to pre war levels and the added benefit is gone. India's monthly exports of POL which touched $10.6Bn in June 2022 and averaged $7.6Bn a month for the next 18 months are now at $5.2Bn a month run rate. Therefore, falling Oil prices impact on domestic factors like Rupee and GSec Yields seems muted. Larger impact can unfold if there is a domestic price fuel cut.

Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on India In 2023, India's trade with Iran included merchandise exports worth $1.7 billion and imports of $672 million. Key exports from India to Iran were rice at $1.03 billion and organic chemicals at $113 million. Iran, ranking third in oil production within OPEC, commands a 3.3% share of the global oil supply. Potential Impact on Indian Markets: 📌 Surge in oil price: Escalations in the Iran-Israel conflict could trigger a surge in oil prices, negatively affecting Indian oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL. 📌 Import Dependency: India heavily relies on oil imports, with 85% of crude oil and 45% of natural gas consumption being imported, leading to higher import costs if oil prices rise. 📌 Market Volatility and Inflationary Pressures: Uncertainty from the conflict could heighten market volatility and inflationary pressures, impacting investor sentiment and consumer spending in India. 📌 The conflict makes the situation in West Asia very unstable, which could force projects like the India-Middle East Corridor (IMEC) trade corridor to remain on paper for a long time. 📌 Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia are the top 3 sources of crude for India The conflict's uncertainty may raise market volatility and inflationary pressures in India, prompting the government to devise strategic policy measures to mitigate risks.

#IndianRiceExports in 2024 seem to face unique challenges due to rising local prices and policy uncertainties. Despite their global prominence in the #RiceTrade, these challenges pose a significant obstacle to maintaining their dominance. 🌾 The root of these challenges lies mainly in unclear government policies causing difficulties in navigating regulatory changes and trade obstacles, thus disrupting the export market 🌍. Local rice prices are seeing an increase due to government support schemes, reducing our competitiveness on the global sphere 📈. The rising cost of production and transportation are playing a crucial role as well. Increased fuel prices and freight rates have heightened the cost of exporting rice, making it more difficult for exporters to maintain profits 🚛. Overcoming these challenges calls for support from the government. Indian exporters urge for more transparent and stable trade policies. By resolving issues related to high prices and production costs, they believe their competitiveness in the global market can be regained 💪. Despite the odds, it is notable that #IndianExporters continue to be instrumental in global rice trade due to the quality and expertise they bring to the table. To safeguard their critical market position, they crucially need government support and a conducive policy environment 🤝. Read more about the situation here: [Financial Express](https://lnkd.in/fX4Acrj), and let’s hope for a positive resolution to these challenges in 2024! 🍚 #TradePolicy #RiceIndustry #GlobalTrade #Economy #Exports #IndianEconomy #2024Challenges (Source: https://lnkd.in/dtyAzQBv)

Harness the power of changing global trade dynamics! 🌍 🍚 Pakistan's rice exports are predicted to soar to a record high, largely driven by increasing international demand & India's restrictions on its rice shipments. With steady demand for both basmati and non-basmati rice, the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan