Michael Perron’s Post

We use historical weather data to predict future weather events. But if we are in a changing climate, the past is not always indicative of the future. If the world is warming, if storms are getting larger and doing more damage inland than in the past, then the past data is a useful starting point to predict the future, but requires some adjustment. Houston had 3 100-year storm events in 3 years, for example, as detailed here: https://lnkd.in/evTFpPXt. 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝐻𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑒 𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑦 ℎ𝑖𝑡, 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑛𝑜 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑠. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑔𝑜𝑡 𝑡𝑤𝑜 "100-𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟" 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑦 𝑚𝑎𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙. 𝐴𝑙𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑠 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑠, 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐹𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑀𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦'𝑠 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠. Back to the Bloomberg article 𝐻𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒-𝑖𝑛-𝑎-𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑢𝑚 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑚 𝑡𝑜 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑘𝑒 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑎 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠. 𝐿𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝐻𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑑𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙, 𝑎𝑛 𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑚 𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑔ℎ𝑡 1,000-𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒, 𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑎𝑠𝑡. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑠𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘-𝑡𝑜-𝑏𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑚𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑠𝑒𝑒𝑚 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔. 𝐴𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙, 𝑖𝑡 𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 1,000 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠. 𝐵𝑢𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦, 𝑖𝑡’𝑠 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦. 𝑈𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑑𝑑𝑠 — 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑐𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑓𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑚 — 𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑟𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑟𝑠. 𝑇𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝐻𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑒’𝑠 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠. 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎 1,000-𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 ℎ𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑑, 𝑎 𝑟𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑦𝑠𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑚 𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑠 𝐻𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑒’𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑤 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 70 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑔𝑙𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑔.

note that though this chart another year of $100b+ in nat cat insured events, the chart doesn't include losses from Hurricane Milton, expected to be in the $20-$50b range.

Webinar from Array Technologies on passive wind stow and more on Tuesday, October 29, 2024, from 12pm-1pm ET.

Plans are to have SMRs running in the 2030s, helping to provide the additional baseload power we need for AI and data centers, with clean energy. The hope is that standardizing SMRs will help make the technology scalable and more cost-effective. Larger nuclear plants have been expensive to build in part because every plant is different. The high cost of nuclear vs. other large projects was detailed in Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg’s book “How Big Things Get Done”. The same book notes how solar and wind have gotten cheaper because they are standardized / modular ized. 𝐴𝑚𝑎𝑧𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 $500𝑀 𝑡𝑜𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑚𝑒𝑒𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠. 𝑌𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑑𝑎𝑦'𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝐺𝑜𝑜𝑔𝑙𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑎 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 Microsoft 𝑠𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑖𝑡 𝑤𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑀𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝐼𝑠𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑡—ℎ𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑛𝑢𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑈𝑆 ℎ𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦—𝑡𝑜 𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙 𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝐴𝐼 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠. 𝑁𝑢𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 19% 𝑜𝑓 𝑈𝑆 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑢𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑣𝑦 𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑚 𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑠. 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 ℎ𝑎𝑧𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑢𝑠, 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑐ℎ 𝑛𝑢𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑔𝑎𝑠-𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑎𝑙, 𝑜𝑖𝑙, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑎𝑠. 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦-𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝐴𝐼 𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑔ℎ𝑙𝑦 9% 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑈𝑆 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑦 2030. Amazon 𝘢𝘯𝘥 Google 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘮𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴, 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘱𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘯𝘶𝘤𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘶𝘱 𝘵𝘰 300 𝘮𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘸𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘯𝘦-𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘳𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘮𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳. 𝘖𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘸𝘰 𝘚𝘔𝘙𝘴 𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘭𝘥, 𝘪𝘯 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢.

𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑈𝐾 𝑔𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑙𝑎𝑢𝑛𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑚 𝑡𝑜 𝑢𝑛𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒, 𝑎 𝑘𝑒𝑦 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦. 𝑈𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑜-𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑝 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑚𝑒 — 𝑎𝑙𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑦 𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 — 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑒 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑒𝑑 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒𝑠. 𝑇ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠, 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑎 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑝 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑚𝑢𝑠𝑡 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑣𝑒 𝑎 𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙. 𝐻𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑢𝑝𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑎 𝑏𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦, 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑐ℎ 𝑖𝑠 𝑘𝑒𝑦 𝑡𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑧𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑔𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑠. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑛𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑠 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒 𝑔𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑏𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑏𝑦 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑖𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 ℎ𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑑.

Another development reducing supply chain risk (for rare earth minerals) that also has geopolitical advantages. Now pilot plant from Niron Magnetics, Inc. In Minneapolis 𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑙𝑦 90% 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝐶ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑎, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑦 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑒𝑛𝑣𝑖𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑠. 𝑅𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑚𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑛𝑒𝑜𝑑𝑦𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑟𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠, 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑒 𝑁𝑖𝑟𝑜𝑛’𝑠 “𝐶𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑀𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑒𝑡” 𝑡𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑛𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑒𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠, 𝑁𝑖𝑟𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑖𝑑, 𝑎𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑖𝑟𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑛 — 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑎𝑏𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑏𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑦 𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑈𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑜 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑠.

𝑂𝑛 𝑂𝑐𝑡. 14, 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑀𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑦’𝑠 𝑅𝑀𝑆 𝑠𝑎𝑖𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝐻𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀𝑖𝑙𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑤𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑 𝑏𝑒 $35 𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑡𝑜 $55 𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛. I’ve seen other articles suggest up to $36b for Milton (KCC) and $20-$40b for Milton (Milliman) both from articles on www.artemis.bm.

I wrote an article about #supplychain and #renewables published in Air & Waste Management Association's em Magazine this past February, which can be found here https://lnkd.in/gzp3X6if The article drew heavily from Henry Sanderson's book 𝑉𝑜𝑙𝑡 𝑅𝑢𝑠ℎ: 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑊𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐿𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑅𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝐺𝑜 𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛, and others have done very good work on Supply chain and renewables including Melissa C. Lott, PhD's podcast series 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝐵𝑖𝑔 𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑡𝑐ℎ which dedicated Season 4 to supply chain https://lnkd.in/eYhVZbnS . Ernest Scheyder also wrote a book titled 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑟 𝑏𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑤 : 𝑙𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑢𝑚, 𝑐𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑟, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑔𝑙𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑙 𝑏𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠 I recently got some interesting updated information on the topic. 1. We are projected to use 20% of the world's silver this year and 40% by 2030 for solar panels, which is expensive and unsustainable. Work is underway to use copper instead, which is more abundant and cheaper. This came from a paper presented at #DuraMAT last month. Renewable Energy World's #FactorThis! podcast featuring John Engel and Mike Casey does a weekly roundup of interesting stories involving renewables, and their October 11 version (https://lnkd.in/eiTGAdKi) had 2 articles regarding supply chain 2. The New York Times' Rebecca Elliott and Ivan Penn wrote "𝑈.𝑆. 𝑅𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑠 𝑈𝑝 𝐻𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑈𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑢𝑚 𝑡𝑜 𝐸𝑛𝑑 𝑅𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒" which can be found at https://lnkd.in/echfrDum 3. Grist's Maddie Stone was interviewed on the show for her article 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑦 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑟𝑢𝑛𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑔ℎ 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝐶𝑎𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑎 𝑡𝑜𝑤𝑛 https://lnkd.in/echfrDum, which discusses how 2 mines near Ashville NC are key suppliers of a special quartz needed to make solar panels and computer chips, and both mines were shutdown due to Hurricane Helene. Per the article BloombergNEF 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑆𝑝𝑟𝑢𝑐𝑒 𝑃𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 80 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑟𝑎-𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑧 𝑠𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑐𝑟𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦,

pv magazine USA does a great job on these webinars. This one is relevant to insurers and others looking to build solar farms more resiliently ..𝑒𝑥𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒 𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠, 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑙, 𝑡ℎ𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑠, ℎ𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑠𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑. PVH - PVHardware 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑒𝑤 𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑦, 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒 𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠. Heather Sauder 𝑎𝑡 CPP Wind Engineering Consultants 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑠𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑎 ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘, 𝑒𝑚𝑝ℎ𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑒-𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑚𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠. Chowdary Charan 𝑎𝑛𝑑 Eduardo Chillarón Jordán 𝑎𝑡 PVH - PVHardware 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑒-𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑚𝑏𝑙𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑠, & 𝑂&𝑀 𝑝𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔-𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒.