Michael R. Barnard — filmmaker in development on THE TWINK MURDERS, a Redemption Thriller about a father and son, an independent feature film.
I lived through the great Indie Film Industry Reduction of nearly a decade-and-a-half ago, when major indie players like Ted Hope, Peter Broderick, Brian Newman, Mark Lipsky and many others were gathered on #Twitter desperately trying to figure out if indie film was dead, if it was dying, or if it was suddenly nothing more than a hobby. This downturn followed the burst of a new Indie Film Industry in the '80s after home video (on VHS, no less!) hit 50% penetration, when Siskel & Ebert At The Movies on PBS gave indie films equal coverage, and when SEX, LIES AND VIDEOTAPE became proof of the reality of the industry. It's an odd situation now, because both the Indie Film Industry AND the "majors" are all feeling threatened. Streaming displaced Home Video, but without creating a broad "high tide floats all boats" scenario like Home Video did. It did increase production for a while, but that boost ends now. And AI, even beyond the huge fears of the fearful-inclined, is not, in any scenario, going to float *any* boats. AI, at best, will be a neutral lateral move sure to displace lots of jobs and only possibly creating many, inreasing output productivity without increasing JOB productivity. That's odd. Then there's the pandemic and lockdown, which, and at this moment, we cannot be sure there won't be another one — the up-to-date vaccination rate is a sickeningly-low 18% while new varients of the deadly virus suddenly explode — destroyed, at least momentarily, the theatrical exhibition industry. So, as an independent filmmaker, what do I think could/might/*with a big "maybe"* predict? Perhaps big box multiplexes in dying shopping malls will become themselves a dying concept. Instead, I wonder if multiplexes could be replaced with smaller theaters situated in more locations. This might help movies address more audiences beyond the common four-quadrent blockbuster business plan. And, if that happened, perhaps it could reinvigorate the Indie Film Industry much as the home video business did when VCRs hit 50% household penetration and created the Direct-to-Video business and when BLOCKBUSTER VIDEO ruled the planet (well, at least, the USA). New satellite-to-projector tecnology could make the increased screens efficient. People WANTED to seek out movies that intrigued and interested them. That spwned the infamous "BLOCKBUSTER crawl," now dead, in their neighborhoods. I think there could be a lot of benefits to many smaller theaters (five screens or less?) spread throughout many cities and towns. It seems it could possibly give a boost to the Indie Film Industry like direct-to-video did. Without the Paramount Decree, perhaps the deep-pocket mega-corps that have movie studio subdivisions would be interested in a real estate/franchise division for this purpose. Maybe. Anyway, what we know about streaming is, there's a shakeout happening right now and nobody knows what's happening next.
I wrote a very cheery piece about the state of Hollywood for Bloomberg Businessweek's Year Ahead issue. The headline: Is There Any Hope for Hollywood? I identified 4 ways the entertainment business will look different this year: 1/ Fewer new programs. 2/ More procedurals + classic broadcast TV formats. 3/ More AI (but not in the way most fear). 4/ Movie theaters leaning into alternative programming. What did I miss? What would you have said? I tried not to speculate about deals. https://lnkd.in/gwhR8Wai
