State of Michigan’s Post

Michigan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate advanced by three-tenths of a percentage point over the month to 4.4 percent during July, according to data released today by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget. Employment was reduced by 6,000 over the month, while unemployment increased by 16,000, resulting in a labor force gain of 10,000 during July. “The uptick in Michigan’s jobless rate reflected an increase in both unemployment and the total workforce during July,” said Wayne Rourke, labor market information director for the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics. “Industry employment was mixed over the month which resulted in a slight decline in payroll jobs.” Read more in our update at https://lnkd.in/gifaE6Ky.

#DTMBNewsroom Alert: Michigan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by two-tenths of a percentage point over the month to 4.1 percent during June, according to data released today by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget. Employment receded by 9,000 over the month, while unemployment rose by 8,000, resulting in an essentially unchanged workforce in June. “Michigan’s unemployment rate increased for the first time in 2024 and matched the U.S. rate of 4.1 percent,” said Wayne Rourke, labor market information director for the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics. “The labor force and payroll jobs remained stable in June.” Read more in an update at https://lnkd.in/gMzjhKdM.

Unemployment appears to be creeping up....is this good or bad? Recurring applications for jobless claims highest since 2021 Bloomberg News | June 27, 2024 Recurring applications for US jobless benefits rose to the highest level since the end of 2021, a warning sign suggesting that it’s taking longer for unemployed people to find a job. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, increased to 1.84 million in the week ended June 15, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Meanwhile, first-time claims ticked down to 233,000 last week, a period that included the Juneteenth holiday. Hiring has slowed significantly from the pandemic-recovery era of widespread labor shortages, and the unemployment rate ticked up last month to 4% for the first time in two years. Economists and Federal Reserve policymakers are watching the claims data for signs of whether the labor market — which so far has been surprisingly resilient — is continuing to soften. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius recently said the labor market is reaching a potential “inflection point,” where a further material softening in demand for workers could lead to a rise in joblessness. Weekly claims data tend to be volatile, even more so around holidays and school breaks. The four-week moving average, which smooths short-term fluctuations, increased to 236,000, the highest since September 2023. Initial claims before adjustment for seasonal influences decreased by 3,570 to about 224,400. Minnesota, Texas and Pennsylvania saw the highest declines. New Jersey had a sizable gain in claims. Stock futures pared losses and bond yields rose after the data reinforced bets that the Fed will be able to cut rates later this year. A separate report Thursday showed that orders placed with US factories for business equipment unexpectedly declined in May, indicating firms remain cautious about investment amid higher-for-longer borrowing costs and softer demand. In the 20 years preceding the Covid-19 pandemic, weekly initial applications averaged about 345,000, and continuing claims averaged roughly 2.9 million. (With assistance from Chris Middleton, Jarrell Dillard and Mark Niquette.) Link to article: https://lnkd.in/gmNmR2Pq

  Some of the weekly updates on new applications for unemployment benefits are more surprising than others and the latest release moved the meter in that regard. The latest snapshot of the job market finds a noteworthy decline in new claims for unemployment benefits. The Labor Department reports initial claims for jobless benefits declined by 16,000 last week to 187,000, the lowest level since September 2022. This stronger-than-expected data coincides with the period when the January employment survey week occurs, which could bode well for the forthcoming jobs report due February 2. The jobless rate ended the year at 3.7% for December, as hiring moderated in 2023. Economists broadly expect further cooling or normalization of the job market this year. Having said that, the resilience of The U.S. economy has been one of the key positive surprises. Continuing claims, reflecting the total number of individuals receiving assistance through regular state programs, fell by 26,000 to 1,806,000. Jobless claims are a proxy for fresh job loss and don’t give us much of a sense regarding the broader job market. However, the just-released Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey, the regional round-up of economic conditions said, that nearly all of the Fed’s 12 Districts “cited one or more signs of a cooling labor market, such as larger applicant pools, lower turnover rates, more selective hiring by firms, and easing wage pressures.” Cautionary notes on this latest reading: -New York State posted a decline of 17,000 claims which seems unusual. -A good part of the country has been experiencing more severe winter weather which could have weighed on claims. -Seasonally adjusted new claims can be a bit noisy. Let's see how trends materialize in the coming weeks.   What are your expectations for the job market and your career in the months and the year ahead? Please share your thoughts and questions in the comments section below.

Harris on Bloomberg TV Discussing Jobs, Interest Rates, and the Labor Movement The Burnes Center for Social Change Senior Fellow Seth Harris appeared on Bloomberg TV's Balance of Power with Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz on Thursday, May 2 to preview the Bureau of Labor Statistics's April jobs and unemployment report and to discuss the state of the economy and the condition of the U.S. labor movement. Watch the video on The Burnes Center for Social Change's Power At Work Blog: https://lnkd.in/dQJhKJDV Harris accurately predicted that jobs growth in April would slow to a more moderate, but still strong pace. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added 175,000 jobs in April as compared with 256,000 in January, 236,000 in February, and 315,000 in March. The unemployment rate ticked up a little bit to 3.9% continuing a more-than-two-year period of unemployment rates at or below 4%. Harris explains in the video why he predicted that job growth would slow down. BLS also reported a slowed rate of wage growth --- only 0.2% from March to April and 3.9% over the last 12 months. That's faster than inflation, which is very good news for workers, but the slower pace indicates some slippahge in worker power in labor markets. Simply, workers with power can demand higher wages and better working conditions, especially if they make that demand collectively through a union. Harris also talked about the state of the labor movement. His bottom line: unions are doing fine, but they need to do more. I focused particularly on membership growth and where the movement stands in its efforts to organize. We recommend Chris Bohner's recent post on the Power At Work Blog entitled "Cash and Clout: Analyzing Individual Unions' Membership Numbers and Finances" for a very deep dive into that topic: https://lnkd.in/ermbtrtG Finally, and perhaps inevitably, Harris and the anchors discussed the Federal Reserve Board and interest rates. The most important part of that discussion was Harris's Passover-related reference to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation "target." See if you can catch it. We welcome your comments on the blog. Do you agree, disagree, or have some additional analysis or information you would like to share? Use the comments box at the bottom of the Power At Work Blog page presenting this video: https://lnkd.in/dQJhKJDV #unemploymentrate #jobgrowth #jobcreation #workerpower #unions #workerorganizing #unionorganizing #wages #unionstrong #inflationrate #interestrates

State Employment and Unemployment Summary - August 2024 Unemployment Rates: Increased in 6 states and D.C., decreased in 1 state, and remained stable in 43 states. National rate stayed at 4.2% but was 0.4% higher than August 2023. Notable Unemployment Rates: Lowest: South Dakota (2.0%), followed by Vermont (2.2%) and North Dakota (2.3%). Highest: D.C. (5.7%), Nevada (5.5%). Employment Changes: Job gains in Texas (+78,000), Indiana (+19,800), Minnesota (+14,400), and Wisconsin (+11,600). Job loss in South Dakota (-3,100). Year-over-Year Employment: Largest increases in Texas (+302,400), California (+287,100), and Florida (+207,400). Significant percentage growth in Missouri and South Carolina (+3.3% each). For detailed state-by-state changes, refer to the full report. #EmploymentReport #Unemployment #EconomicUpdate

As you enjoy your Super Saturday, Here is some info worth noting. According to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, Massachusetts Unemployment & Job Estimates for December 2023 Labor force increases by 13,900, largest increase since January 2022; Unemployment at 3.2% BOSTON, MA – January 19, 2024 --- The state’s December total unemployment rate was 3.2 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from the revised November estimate of 2.9 percent , the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development announced Friday. The Massachusetts unemployment rate was 0.5 percentage points lower than the national rate of 3.7 percent reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Over-the-year, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was down by 0.5 percentage points. Manufacturing gained 500 jobs over-the-month. Over-the-year, 900 were added.

The Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing a modest increase by first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended September 7th. The report said initial jobless claims rose to 230,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 228,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 230,000 from the 227,000 originally reported for the previous week. The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average also crept up to 230,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 230,250. Continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, also climbed by 5,000 to 1.850 million in the week ended August 31st. #USeconomy #USjobs #unemployment #joblessclaims #employment #labormarket #USD #jobless

Is the Fed behind the curve with this labor market? https://ift.tt/Ejyiwhk In 2022, I argued that the Federal Reserve won’t pivot until the labor market breaks. This means that the Fed will need to create such a slowdown in the labor market that nobody will question their action when they pivot. This is what I call the “cover cuts”  policy. After today’s jobs report and the negative revision to this report and the previous ones, it is safe to say nobody outside of crazy people who want to see America go into a recession will question the Fed rate cut that will happen this month.  However, even if the Fed had already cut rates three times this year, they would still be in restrictive policy. So, we are far from any natural pivot in my mind — all we have done is start the discussion about putting the rate-cut cycle into the neutral stance. I say this because if the Fed thought the economy was breaking, they would leave hints about what accommodative rate policy would look like. Today, we stand with no rate cuts, but the first will come this month. From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and healthcare. First, the unemployment rate fell after some adjustments to temporary layoffs in the last month. It stands at 4.2%, while the lowest level was 3.4% in January and April 2023. If the labor force grows, the unemployment rate can increase without jobs being lost in these reports. This means that more people are looking for work but are not getting it. I want to leave this data line here for everyone: the unemployment rate for those who never finished high school is at 7.1% today. Now, the job creation and loss part of this report is interesting. Manufacturing took a big hit, but construction data grew. After the revisions, the residential construction workers being at risk — something I have been discussing for some time on the HousingWire Daily podcast — hasn’t shown any real growth in the data. In fact, one of the recent months did show a job loss in this sector, but this month we created jobs and the last new home sales came in as a big beat. Regarding the BLS jobs report, after the data showed more than 157 million people employed, I had been looking for jobs to slow down to the range of 140,000 to 165,000 jobs per month before we hit 159 million Americans employed. That number represents the standard job curve without a COVID-19 recession. I have been wrong for some time now, but now that the revisions have happened, the data looks more in line with the range I was looking for. In the last three months, things have cooled down in the labor market. The last 3-month average: 116,000 per month The last 6-month average: 164,000 per month It’s not shocking that mortgage rates are at year-to-date lows because the bond market isn’t old and slow — they get ahead...

The Fed is winning its war against the labor market. What does that mean for rates? https://ift.tt/QxUmt9h With today’s jobs report and all the reports we got during this jobs week, can we finally say the Federal Reserve is winning its war against the labor market? I believe the Fed won’t pivot until the labor market breaks. That has been my position since 2022 and we are starting to see some early signs of them successfully attacking the U.S. labor market in the past few months, something I talked about on a recent HousingWire Daily podcast. This is very important to the housing market because what the real estate market needs to grow sales is lower mortgage rates. Fed policy disproportionately impacts the housing market more than other sectors of our economy. As I have often discussed, the housing market runs off where the 10-year yield goes. So, the question is: Has the Fed done enough damage to the labor market for them to start debating how many rate cuts we need to stop a job loss recession? Let’s take a look at the labor data to find out. From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. Bond yields fell after the report came out, which means the market interpreted it negatively. But why is that, when a healthy 206,000 jobs were created? First, we had negative revisions to the prior two reports. Even with that, we are still trending above my target of 140,000-165,000 as we get closer to 159 million people working on the nonfarm payroll data — which is where we should be after getting all the jobs back that we lost to COVID. But the unemployment rate did tick up and for the first time in a while we are above 4% now. The negative revisions to the previous reports put the 3-month average roughly at 177,000. If you remove government jobs from the equation, we are running at 146,000 jobs per month on a 3-month average so we are getting closer and closer to my target. The one thing about my target level is that the run rate of employment is higher now, meaning that if we don’t print big job reports, the unemployment rate will go higher, even without having jobs lost. I brought this up in last month’s article on the jobs report and have often talked about how we should expect higher unemployment rates in the future. Below is the 12-month jobs creation data The Fed has been worried that too many Americans are making too much with high wage growth. So, to keep this as simple as possible, the Fed would love to see wage growth back toward 3% because it doesn’t believe the productivity data is as strong as it is reported. Wage growth is cooling down, but they want to see more damage done here. Below is the 12-month wage growth data, which peaked near 6% in 2022 and currently is at 3.9%.  The other labor data we had this...