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𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻'𝘁. The latest bear market indicator has hit financial markets. The Sahm Rule, created by former Federal Reserve economist, Claudia Sahm, triggered for the first time since 2020 on 2 August 2024 when the latest jobs report showed U.S. unemployment rate increasing to 4.3%. The rule’s premise is relatively simple, it says that once unemployment rate rises by a certain amount, the labour market goes into a downward trajectory as job losses and declining demand feed into a negative feedback loop, plunging the broader economy into a recession. 𝘑𝘜𝘚𝘛 𝘊𝘖𝘔𝘔𝘈𝘕𝘋 𝘓𝘐𝘍𝘌

Did you know the labor market is not usually a good leading indicator of economic strength? Unemployment claims and rates are both lagging economic indicators, meaning they’re often late in telling the story. The labor market has held up well so far in this post-pandemic era, helping to prop up economic activity. But are we past an inflection point that hasn’t yet shown up in the employment figures? That remains unclear. What we do know is that the Fed maintains they won’t cut rates while the macroeconomic backdrop remains so resilient. As a result, we could be in for a longer than expected period of expensive debt and whatever downstream impacts that could have! #JobMarket #LaborMarket #LowUnemployment #Economy #EconomicUpdate #Entrepreneur #Entreprenurship https://hubs.ly/Q02vxKTy0

GSAM: Global Fixed Income Weekly - Musings Recapping the Data: The US #economy added a solid 254k jobs in September, and the #unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% in August to 4%. Meanwhile, job openings remain firm, and the layoff rate is low. On a less upbeat note, the decline in private sector quit rates may signal less worker enthusiasm about labor market conditions. Overall, the latest data indicate that the labor market remains healthy, though it is seeing some steady softening. The Big Picture: In the initial phases of labor market rebalancing, which was necessary to cool wages and services inflation, the US benefited from an increase in labor supply due to a surge in immigration in 2023 and a rebound in labor force participation. However, immigration has slowed in 2024, while labor force participation has returned to its pre-pandemic trend… #investing #bonds #fixedincome #markets #jobs

In May, the U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.0 percent. This steady job growth suggests a resilient labor market, contributing positively to economic stability. What does this mean for business and financial operations? Let’s talk! #Jobs #BLS #LHH #Lhh #2024Jobs #RetentionGoals #2024HiringGuide #FinancialJobs

Attempting to connect the labor market to the health of the broader economy, many have pointed to the Sahm Rule, which indicates the economy is in a recession if the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate is 0.5% above its lowest level in the last 12 months. Our Multi-Asset Solutions team offers insights on this topic: https://lnkd.in/gF_t4wUV • The Sahm recession signal has not been triggered - the Sahm Rule sits at 0.43% today, indicating the economy is not in recession. • A different approach to connecting the labor market to the health of the broader economy is to track the year-over-year change in the three-month moving average of the number of unemployed. Once this measure surpasses 10%, which it did in April, and has remained there ever since, a recession has historically followed.  

📉 Breaking News: U.S. Job Market Cools Significantly in July 📉 Last Friday, the latest NFP and unemployment rate data from the US revealed a significant cooling in the job market. The NFP for July recorded an increase of just 114K, below the expected 175K. This unexpected data has raised concerns about a potential economic recession. 📊 Let's take a look at the reaction of currency pairs in the 4 hours following the release of the NFP data. For detailed insights, visit the FastBull economic calendar. https://lnkd.in/gAwqHpdq #NonFarmPayrolls #USJobsData #Forex #Trading #FastBull #EconomicData #FinancialNews

Agron Nicaj, MUFG U.S. Economist, writes in his latest publication that monthly employment growth continues to be dominated by four major industry groups, including noncyclical government and health care, construction, and leisure and hospitality. Growth in professional and business services, a historically reliable recession indicator, has been slow since 2023, both a reflection of hiring difficulties and weaker demand. Volatility in the unemployment rate is being driven by younger workers (16- 24 years), but there is a relatively flat trend for prime-age (25-54 years) and older (55 and over) workers. So far, the rise in unemployment can largely be attributed to an expanding labor force, most of which are re-entrants to the labor force rather than first time job seekers. The full report is available here: http://ms.spr.ly/6047cFpWb #MonthlyEmploymentGrowth #UnemploymentRate #USEconomy

The US Economy Faces Challenges Amid Rising Debt and Weakening Job Market Veteran forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth warns that the US economy is already in a downturn and may be following China’s path by relying on increasing debt to sustain growth. Despite Wall Street’s optimism for a soft landing, recent downward revisions in job-growth figures indicate a weakening job market. While the economy added 303,000 jobs in March, new payrolls were revised lower for February, and layoffs have been rising. Economists predict a risk of recession, with the unemployment rate potentially surging to 5%. To drive the economy, Booth emphasizes the need for reduced public spending and greater private sector participation. The growing debt could lead to inflation, market volatility, and a lower quality of life for Americans. #Recession #USeconomy #LaborMerket #Inflation https://lnkd.in/erRX9bbG

Despite robust job growth, unemployment rose to 4% for the first time in 3 years and bond yields jumped 10 basis points. What's behind the market's reaction to the latest job growth figures? Professor Siegel provides insight in his weekly commentary here: https://lnkd.in/gmfpqbw4 #bonds #unemployment #economy #investing

The July jobs report has been dominating headlines as data came in weaker than expectations, with 114,000 jobs added to the US economy and unemployment rising to 4.3%. The July jobs data triggered the highly-watched recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule, but what exactly is it? More: https://lnkd.in/eCY5eqNf #yahoofinance #finance #economy #markets #money