Morgan Downs’ Post

Despite mixed inflation data last week, equity markets resumed their march higher. All three major indices were able to notch positive marks. The Nasdaq was the week’s leader, rallying 3.09%. The S&P 500 rose 1.84%. And the DJIA brought up the rear, climbing 0.34%. The move on the S&P was enough to bring that index’s year-to-date performance into the black, while both the DJIA and Nasdaq are still slightly negative on the year. All three indices have been positive ten of the past eleven weeks. Find out more in this week’s Profit Margin. https://lnkd.in/eVkNS7fv

Despite mixed inflation data last week, equity markets resumed their march higher. All three major indices were able to notch positive marks. The Nasdaq was the week’s leader, rallying 3.09%. The S&P 500 rose 1.84%. And the DJIA brought up the rear, climbing 0.34%. The move on the S&P was enough to bring that index’s year-to-date performance into the black, while both the DJIA and Nasdaq are still slightly negative on the year. All three indices have been positive ten of the past eleven weeks. Find out more in this week’s Profit Margin. https://lnkd.in/e466t25G

All eyes will be on the release of the November consumer price indicator report this morning, which is set for release at 11.30 am AEDT. UBS expects CPI to be 0.6% higher, month on month, but in annual terms, it expects a drop to 4.6%, down from 4.9% in October. Yet it notes that the strength in November retail sales, as reported yesterday, does suggest some “lingering inflation”. More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors http://ow.ly/MnSL1058lcY

Equity markets retained their upbeat disposition last week as earnings season progressed, inflation data was tame, and GDP data was solid. All three major averages finished the week in positive territory. The Nasdaq is the year-to-date leader. It rallied 0.94% last week. The S&P 500 rose 1.06%, the week’s best performer. And the DJIA brought up the rear, climbing 0.65%. Find out more in this week’s Profit Margin https://lnkd.in/epBA5W-x

https://lnkd.in/dwnrjMN2 “The market is rallying due to robust corporate earnings and anticipation of decreasing interest rates,” Yousuf M. Farooq, Director of Research at Chase Securities, said. He added that “some technical analysts predict a temporary pause in the market’s upward trend following an extended rally”. “As the economy rebounds, certain sectors — especially cyclical — might experience significant earnings growth, and the market has begun to factor that in, to some extent,” Farooq said. Additionally, Farooq observed that the drop in treasury yields the previous day had also “sparked excitement, with the one-year treasury bill down 49 basis points in the secondary market, driven by expectations of an interest rate decline”. He explained: “The prospect of declining rates renders stocks more appealing, potentially prompting a shift from fixed income to equities over the next year.” Farooq noted that some stocks still offered dividend yields of up to 20pc, which he said could further increase as earnings grow. “In contrast, investments in government securities entail significant reinvestment risk. Opting for a one-year T-bill could result in locking in a considerably lower rate upon maturity of the current bond,” he highlighted.

PPI Cools • REIT Dividend Hikes • Yields Dip REIT Daily Recap: https://lnkd.in/d4z842aK U.S. equity markets were mixed Thursday while benchmark interest rates dipped to fresh two-month lows after the Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims data provided further evidence of disinflation and softening aggregate demand. The Headline PPI declined -0.2% month-over-month and 2.24% from a year earlier - well below consensus estimates of 0.1% and 2.5%, respectively. Core PPI followed the same pattern, coming in flat month-over-month and rising 2.34% from a year earlier - below estimates of 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively. A retreat in gasoline prices fueled a decline in the Final Demand: Goods index, which dipped by -0.8% in May after posting a gain of 0.4% in April. Prices also declined for diesel fuel, commercial electric power, and jet fuel. The Final Demand: Services index - which has been an area of "sticky" inflationary trends - was flat in May after rising by 0.6% in April. There were even more significant signs of disinflation further up the supply chain. The index for Processed Goods: Intermediate Demand dipped -1.5% in May, the largest decline since December 2022. Even further up the supply chain, the index for Unprocessed Goods: Intermediate Demand dipped -1.8% in May, the largest decline since December 2023. REIT Academy & The Executive REIT Masterclass | The Daily REIT Beat Newsletter | Seeking Alpha | #REITs #Dividends #Investing #Income #Yield #RealEstate #Housing #Stocks #Bonds #HighYield #DividendInvesting #IncomeInvesting #Diversification #Inflation #realassets #investment

Strong inflation figures and boiling geopolitical tensions combined to push the markets around last week. In the equity markets, all three major averages finished in the red. The DJIA was the week’s worst performer, dropping 2.37%. The most diversified of the indices, the S&P 500, dipped 1.56%. And while it is now on a three-week losing streak, the Nasdaq held up relatively well, falling only 0.45%.Those seeking a safe haven helped move gold prices to a new, all-time high. Find out more in this week’s Profit Margin. https://lnkd.in/excKq2jJ

LPL Financial's Weekly Market Performance – Highlights for the week include that stocks traded lower for a second straight week as sticky consumer inflation data led to reduced rate cut expectations. Treasury yields and the dollar surged higher amid the repricing. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further weighed on risk appetite.  Selling pressure was widespread as all 11 S&P 500 sectors traded lower. Small caps underperformed, and the Russell 2000 fell back into negative territory for the year. The kickoff of earnings season provided little relief as most of the big banks out with results reported disappointing net interest income and/or guidance.  #LPLFinancial #marketperformance #weeklymarketupdate #financialadvisor #financialprofessional

See this week's Market Recap from Yeo & Yeo Wealth Management. The S&P 500 index finished last week 1.4% higher as stocks extended their global rally. As of Feb. 9, 67% of the S&P 500 have announced 2023 fourth-quarter earnings with 75% reporting earnings above consensus expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due Tuesday with headline CPI expected to fall to 3.0% on a year-over-year basis.

The markets had a volatile week with S&P 500 initially falling by 4.2%, and the Nasdaq declining 6.0% but both indices ended up rebounding by end of the week, to closing down 0.2% and down 0.3% respectively. US Treasury yields fell sharply on Monday as global investors looked for safety. The two-year note declined by over 20 basis points (bps), reaching a low of 3.88%. Although longer-dated 30-year Treasury yields initially dipped to 4.016, they ended the week higher at 4.22%. Key Highlights: •Market volatility spiked due to concerns of a potential recession. The VIX index surged to an intra-day high of 65.70 on Monday, a level not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, before dropping back to 21 . •The S&P 500 initially fell by 4.2%, and the Nasdaq declined 6.0% but both indices ended up rebounding, to closing down 0.2% and down 0.3% respectively. The market found some stability after July’s US Institute of Supply Management’s services index rose from 48.8 to 51.4. •The Nikkei 225 index dropped 12.4% on Monday, its largest decline since 1987, but recovered most of these losses and finished the week down 2.46%. The Japanese yen initially strengthened to 141.70 on the FX carry trade unwind but has since stabilized to 146.70. •US Treasury yields fell sharply on Monday as global investors looked for safety. The two-year note declined by over 20 basis points (bps), reaching a low of 3.88%. Although longer-dated 30-year Treasury yields initially dipped to 4.016, they ended the week higher at 4.22%. •As the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cutting cycle approaches, 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell by approximately 25 bps to 6.47%, the lowest level since May 2023. This decrease should enhance home affordability and boost purchase applications. •After hiking interest rates for only the second time in 17 years, Bank of Japan attempted to stabilize markets by pledging not to raise them further during periods of market instability. Currently, the swaps market is pricing in a 20% likelihood of a 25 bps hike by December, down from over 60% last week. •Since the post-pandemic boom, the Fed’s primary focus has been lowering inflation to its 2% target, but Fed officials have shifted their focus to avoiding a significant surge in unemployment that could push the economy past its breaking point. While Thursday’s initial jobless claims report came in at 233K, lower than last week’s 250K and the expected 240K, investors and the Fed are continuing to monitor the labor market closely. Markets are currently pricing in 100 bps of easing through year-end with a 58% chance of an outsized 50 bps cut at the Fed’s September meeting. •Economic concerns pushed US crude oil prices to a six-month low on Monday, but strong performance later in the week left West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude up 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively. Geopolitical tensions and OPEC production cuts are likely to put a floor under oil prices, potentially limiting further declines.