Mosaic Smart Data’s Post

The Yen carry trade has become one of the biggest focal points for investors amid the recent market volatility. But what is the Yen carry trade, why did it break down, and what does it all mean for global markets? In the latest #GSExchanges, Allison Nathan turns to Goldman Sachs’ Kamakshya Trivedi, Head of Global FX, Interest Rates, and EM Strategy in Research, and Praneet Shah, Co-Head of Global G10 FX Options Trading in Global Banking & Markets, for answers. #goldmansachs #markets #economics #japan #yen #carrytrade Listen to this episode on: Apple: https://lnkd.in/etZ4i3e4 Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eNU3dA4r

China's #bond market, despite being the second largest in the world, has a very low global participation rate. Foreign #investors account for only 4% of the market even though it was included in global #indices such as the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate in 2019 and JP Morgan EMBI Global in 2020. Read our latest research: https://okt.to/RVqgt7

🎙️ Our interconnected world poses systemic opportunities and risks - single events can ripple through global innovation markets, across many asset classes including digital assets. A fascinating listen for your weekend, from Allison Nathan on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast on the Japanese Yen carry trade and its implications on the amplified butterfly effects.

The carry trade is a hot topic right now, and this podcast from Goldman Sachs dives deep into what it is, what's happening and the broader implications for global markets. Highly recommend if you want to understand more!

#novumcapitalpartners The rally of the European banking sector is impressive and partly underestimated by global investors. Since the lows at the time of Covid, the EuroStoxx bank index has risen 180%, and this year again leads the European stock markets with a 16% rise. But which countries have contributed most to this rise? In this and the next post we will analyze the dynamics. In the Bloomberg chart, we have summed up the market cap of the top two banks in the main European countries. Spain and Italy lead the ranking, while Germany is at the tail end! Chart Source: Bloomberg Credits: Vittorio Treichler - Partner and Strategist at NOVUM CAPITAL PARTNERS SA #EuropeanMarkets #Investment #EuroStoxx #BankIndex #MarketPerformance #MarketCap #Spain #Italy #Germany

I am a huge fan of the analyses from Bank for International Settlements – BIS. A colleague shared this earlier today on the market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024. The discussion on procyclical deleveraging and margin increases exacerbating volatility - as per quotes below - is something that has been discussed for more than a decade. So maybe more than continued attention? "The event was yet another example of volatility exacerbated by procyclical deleveraging and margin increases. Although an outright market dysfunction was averted this time, the structural features of the system underpinning such episodes deserve continued attention by policymakers... The reliance on leverage for many of these positions implies that investors will have to respond more strongly to adverse shocks to avoid significant losses. If such behaviour takes place in a jittery and illiquid market environment, volatility could be further exacerbated, and a negative feedback loop could be kindled". Link: https://lnkd.in/d842DxqW #bis #carrytrade #financialmarkets

Outstanding, to the point interview on Bloomberg, Middle East yesterday by our colleague Todd Schubert, Senior Fixed Income Strategist. Todd elaborates on the following key points: 1. We expect a mild recession in H2, 2024. Only about a 30% chance of a soft landing. 2. We expect 3 rate cuts in 2024, starting in June 3. We expect the 10 year UST to trade around 4% in the near term, moving to 3.5% by year end 4. We favour DM IG paper, though believe there is selective opportunity within the EM HY space 5. EM currencies expected to do well as rates start to fall Jean Chia 谢佩华 Mansoor Mohi-uddin Todd Schubert, CFA Bank of Singapore, Asia's Global Private Bank

What is the outlook of global and Asia markets? Adam Whiteley, our Head of Global Credit discussed with Bloomberg TV to share where he sees opportunities in the global credit market. Click to watch the interview at 1:02:50. https://bloom.bg/3xuOKFH #FixedIncome #GlobalCredit #MarketOutlook #BNYInvestments