Mykhailo Savchenko, M.Sc.’s Post

https://lnkd.in/dbu-iXMu The Potential for Russia to Supercharge North Korea’s Nuclear and Missile Pro... Robert Peters Oct 22, 2024 North Korea is fast becoming a weapons supplier of choice for malign actors around the world and almost certainly sees opportunity in a closer relationship with Russia. Such a closer relationship undoubtedly includes hard currency, food, and raw materials in exchange for North Korean weapons, but it could also include technical assistance with Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear weapons programs. Because a more modern North Korea would almost certainly be emboldened and far more aggressive, Washington, Seoul, and Japan must forge a strong, committed, and unified partnership that fields credible and capable militaries that will not be coerced even by a confident, nuclear-armed North Korea. The trilateral relationship should be expanded to include more military command and control integration and interoperability of capabilities among their fielded forces. North Korea is fast becoming a weapons supplier of choice for malign actors worldwide and almost certainly sees opportunity in a closer relationship with Russia. Such a closer relationship could well include technical assistance with Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear weapons programs. Washington, Seoul, and Japan must forge a partnership that fields capable militaries that will not be coerced even by a confident, nuclear-armed North Korea.

According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India now ranks ahead of Pakistan in terms of nuclear weapons, with India possessing 172 warheads as of January 2024 compared to Pakistan's 170. This places India 6th among the world's nuclear-armed states. China's arsenal saw a significant increase, growing from 410 warheads to 500 within the same period. The SIPRI report highlights ongoing modernization of nuclear arsenals among the nine nuclear-armed nations, which include the US, Russia, France, China, India, Pakistan, the UK, North Korea, and Israel. Key findings from the report include: The global nuclear arsenal totals approximately 12,121 warheads, with around 9,585 in military stockpiles and 3,904 deployed with missiles and aircraft. Approximately 2,100 of these deployed warheads are on high operational alert, primarily held by Russia and the USA, with China joining this category for the first time. Russia and the USA collectively possess nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. India's nuclear deterrent continues to focus primarily on Pakistan but is increasingly prioritizing longer-range weapons targeting China. The UK plans to expand its nuclear stockpile from 225 to 260 warheads, and France is developing new nuclear systems. North Korea has about 50 assembled warheads and enough material to potentially increase its total to 90. Israel is modernizing its nuclear arsenal and enhancing plutonium production. The report also discusses the weakening of nuclear diplomacy due to conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and tensions in Gaza, including the suspension of arms control agreements and increased nuclear exercises by Russia. #NuclearArms #India #Pakistan #SIPRI #GlobalSecurity #NuclearModernization #China #Russia #US #NuclearDiplomacy #InternationalRelations #DefenseUpdates #Pakpresstoday

Excited to have my most recent article published with The Diplomat! The Washington Declaration has failed to effectively deter North Korea and reassure South Korea, as evidenced by North Korea's increased missile tests and South Korea's growing support for developing its own nuclear weapons. North Korea's new security alliance with Russia further complicates the situation, necessitating a more robust U.S. deterrence strategy. Potential solutions include enhancing the Washington Declaration, redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, or passing a legislative commitment similar to the Taiwan Relations Act to reaffirm U.S. support for South Korea. https://lnkd.in/eyeqe2ee

𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗩𝗹𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗿 𝗣𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗻𝘂𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗻 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁 On Monday, Russia announced its intention to conduct military drills involving troops near Ukraine, rehearsing for the potential use of battlefield nuclear weapons. The announcement was made by the Russian Minister of Defence Sergej Šojgu and came as a reaction to what the Kremlin sees as "provocative statements and threats by certain Western officials against the Russian Federation", alluding, among other things, to the British Foreign Secretary David Cameron's comment that Ukraine is free to use British weapons to strike inside Russia. NATO condemned this declaration as "reckless", saying that Moscow's nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible and reaffirming its unconditional support for Ukraine through collective deterrence. Ukraine sees this announcement as the usual blackmail measure from Moscow, yet it has quickly mobilised its intelligence services to collect all the necessary information to find out what could be the Kremlin's next moves. The threat of using tactical, non-strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed for battlefield use, is Russia's clearest indication yet of its willingness to employ such weaponry within Ukrainian territory, consolidating its dangerous nuclear posture and significantly heightening tensions with Western nations. Photo by Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

"Russia said on Monday that it would hold military exercises with troops based near Ukraine to practice for the possible use of battlefield nuclear weapons, ratcheting up tensions with the West after two European leaders raised the prospect of more direct Western intervention in the war. These weapons, often referred to as “tactical,” are designed for battlefield use and have smaller warheads than the “strategic” nuclear weapons meant to target cities. Russia’s Defense Ministry said that President Vladimir V. Putin had ordered an exercise for missile, aviation and naval personnel to “increase the readiness of nonstrategic nuclear forces to carry out combat missions.” The announcement of the exercise was Russia’s most explicit warning in its more than two-year invasion of Ukraine that it could use tactical nuclear weapons there. Russia has seized the battlefield initiative after a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive last year. But Moscow’s advances remain slow and bloody, and new deliveries of Western weapons are on their way, including those from a $61 billion military aid package that the United States approved last month. The Kremlin wants to discourage the West from deepening its support for Ukraine and to exploit divisions within the NATO military alliance over the risks of doing so — a schism that was on display in February after Mr. Macron first mentioned the possibility of putting Western troops in Ukraine. Mr. Peskov said that such a move would lead to a direct clash with Russian forces. Recent months have marked a hawkish shift for Mr. Macron, who more than two years ago tried to head off the invasion of Ukraine by dangling the possibility of integrating Russia into a new European security architecture. Russia’s announcement of tactical nuclear drills drew a sharp response from NATO on Monday. “Russia’s nuclear rhetoric is dangerous and irresponsible,” said Farah Dakhlallah, a NATO spokeswoman. “NATO remains vigilant.” She added: “Ukraine has a right to self-defense, which is enshrined in the U.N. Charter, and NATO Allies will continue to support Ukraine. Russia has started this illegal war and must end it.”

VOA [excerpt]: #China said it opposes a deployment of #nuclearweapons to #SouthKorea as it would pose danger to regional countries. Beijing was reacting to a report suggesting the United States should take such a measure to enhance deterrence against threats from #NorthKorea. "If the U.S. deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Asia-Pacific region, it will be a dangerous move that will seriously threaten the security of regional countries and undermine regional peace and stability," said Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington. "We will continue to handle Korean Peninsula affairs based on their merits and our own position," he said in a statement sent to VOA on Monday. The embassy spokesperson described China's position on the Korean Peninsula as ensuring peace and stability and advancing political settlement that suits the common interests of all parties. The remarks were made in response to a report released May 29 by U.S. Senator Roger Wicker, the highest-ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, calling for a major boost to U.S. #military buildup and readiness against countries such as North Korea and China. In the report, "Peace Through Strength," Wicker suggested the U.S. explore new options, such as a "nuclear sharing agreement in the Indo-Pacific and re-deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in the Korean Peninsula." He said these would "bolster deterrence on the Korean peninsula" as North Korea "continues to build more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles capable of striking the United States and our allies in the Indo-Pacific." In response to Wicker's report, a U.S. State Department spokesperson told VOA's Korean Service on Friday that "the United States does not assess returning nuclear weapons to the Indo-Pacific as necessary at this time" and "has no plans to forward deploy nuclear weapons to the Korean peninsula." The spokesperson continued, "U.S. security commitments to allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region are steadfast and U.S. extended deterrence commitments to the Republic of Korea, Japan, and Australia remain ironclad." In 1991, the U.S. withdrew from South Korea its nuclear weapons, which had been stationed there since the late 1950s. The U.S. has been providing extended deterrence commitment to South Korea and Japan, which means the U.S. military would use its full range of capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to defend its allies. Washington and Seoul will hold their third Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting next week in Seoul to discuss ways to enhance extended deterrence, South Korea's Defense Ministry said Tuesday. The NCG was set up under the Washington Declaration announced in April last year when U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol held a bilateral summit in Washington. #news #Geopolitics

Biden Seeks to Deter Israel From Attacking Iranian Nuclear Sites Netanyahu vows reprisal against Iran after missile barrage UN calls to end escalation, G-7 chiefs see room for diplomacy - President Joe Biden said Israel should hold off from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in retaliation for a missile barrage this week, as Group of Seven nations sought to tamp down a spiraling conflict that threatens to pull the US even deeper in. - Asked if he would support such a response, which some Israeli politicians have called for, Biden responded, “The answer is no.” He said he was set to speak with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later in the day and the G-7 planned a statement in a bid to head off further escalation, while further sanctions will be imposed on Iran. - Israel has defied calls from Washington for a cease-fire in Gaza, and on Wednesday pressed ahead with a ground incursion against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon despite pressure from the US to de-escalate on that front. - The likelihood of the conflict easing appeared even more out of reach as initial assessments came in from Iran’s strike on Tuesday, in which it fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. Some of them got through and caused damage at Israeli military sites, though only one person was reported killed. - In Lebanon, Israel said eight of its soldiers were killed in clashes with Hezbollah, the first casualties it’s reported in an expanding ground incursion targeting the Iran-backed militia there. https://lnkd.in/gkyMDZ9r

Poland has warned that if the West fails to support Ukraine, it could lead to a global arms race for nuclear weapons, with countries looking for ways to guarantee their safety. The warning comes amid the impasse in Washington over military aid for Ukraine and frustration over Germany's reluctance to provide Ukraine with cruise missiles. The fear is that unchecked behavior by autocrats like Vladimir Putin in Ukraine could embolden other countries to seek nuclear weapons. Additionally, Poland has stated willingness to join NATO's Nuclear Sharing program. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Japan Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/g-3Y-49y

The idea of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons is resurfacing due to the military partnership between North Korea and Russia. Some U.S. pundits suggest this possibility, but local analysts find it unlikely and unrealistic. South Korean officials have raised concerns about the North Korea-Russia pact and warn against the feasibility of South Korea obtaining nuclear weapons due to international opposition and potential destabilization in East Asia. Despite the increased military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, experts urge neighboring countries, including South Korea, to respond rationally. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #SouthKorea Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gkxXyZjC

Nuclear Brinkmanship: US-Russia Tensions Escalate Over UK Weapon Deployment **Geopolitical Tensions:** * The potential deployment of US nuclear weapons in the UK highlights the heightened tensions between the West and Russia, particularly fueled by the ongoing war in Ukraine. * Both sides view this move through the lens of deterrence and escalation, indicating a fragile security environment. **Strategic Calculations:** * The US may see this deployment as a deterrent to deter Russian aggression and reassure its European allies. * Russia, on the other hand, perceives it as a threat and is prepared to respond, potentially fueling an arms race or military build-up. **Military Imbalance:** * The significant difference in military size between the UK and Russia raises concerns about the UK's ability to respond to a potential conflict. * This imbalance might influence calculations on both sides and necessitate further cooperation within NATO. **Limited Information:** * The information available is primarily through media reports and official statements, which might be subject to bias or incomplete. * A more comprehensive understanding would require access to classified information and diverse perspectives. **Potential Consequences:** * This situation could escalate tensions, leading to unintended consequences or miscalculations. * The risk of nuclear proliferation and accidental conflict could increase. * Diplomacy and open communication are crucial to de-escalate the situation and find peaceful solutions. **Points to Consider:** * The long-term implications of this potential deployment are yet to unfold. * The role of other actors, such as China and other European nations, is crucial in shaping the overall geopolitical landscape. * Arms control treaties and disarmament efforts might need revisiting to address the current challenges. Remember, this is just one interpretation of the situation. It's essential to explore diverse perspectives and engage in critical thinking to form your own conclusions. Read "Kremlin issues chilling warning as US moves nuclear weapons closer to Russia" on https://lnkd.in/gVRhshG8 #NuclearWeapons #USRussiaStandoff #UkraineWar #NATOSecurity #ArmsRace #DiplomacyNeeded #WorldPeace