NASIC (National Air and Space Intelligence Center)’s Post

When future US military capabilities are discussed these days, #artificialintelligence and how it will change the nature of warfare is at the top of the list. But within the Pentagon and the services, AI ambition does not match current budgetary realities...

Chair Harmon noted DoD leveraging the tech sector more, and, more importantly, moving away from the risk averse to a tolerance to experiment and fail culture. We need more entrepreneurial thinking, seeking new approaches with technology to address objectives. For example, target tracking technology is not just for movement patterns, or identifying potentially new targets via association (once confirmed) it can also open new weapons and supply caches, provide new comms intercepting or recruitment moves, and so on. Vice Chair Edelman's comments on multi-front conflicts and better conflict management brought up to me the fluidity we need to approach conflicts. We are too categorical. In business, you need to think of how one function or feature can apply in a different product or service - and industry. Often, you open up new markets for products and services, helping them show a unique differentiator. Similarly, we need to be nimble in our thinking on conflict, stepping away from categories. Terrorism and contrived protests can be population unsettling and resource diversion tactics for a later overthrow attempt or low-level conflict. That might offshoot to weapons buying thru a 3rd party financing with its own motives. Both the Chair and Vice Chair were serious and non-partisan. They offered solutions that are imaginative, workable, and sobering. Both continued to show their dedication to protecting this country.

DAF leaders lock arms, present plan to reoptimize Air Force, Space Force   In a show of unity fueled by a sense of urgency, senior United States Department of the Air Force civilian and military leaders unveiled Feb. 12 a set of sweeping decisions designed to reoptimize the United States Air Force and United States Space Force to maintain preeminence, deter adversaries, and prevail in an era of Great Power Competition. The leaders – Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Financial Management and Comptroller performing the duties of the Under Secretary Kristyn Jones, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin, and Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman – outlined 24 specific decisions during a panel discussion at the AFA Warfare Symposium. The package of decisions, they said, will position the services to better confront China and maintain the hard-won superiority in air and space that has been a crucial foundation for deterrence and for protecting the nation’s security. Read more https://lnkd.in/e-pdpctX

My new piece in Journal of Strategic Studies is now on-line and free to access! The digital cult of the offensive and the US military For the US, the information age seemed to advantage the offense, with technologies and campaigns of long-range, fast, and overwhelming first strike advantage. But where did the US digital cult of the offensive come from? To answer this question, I examine the development of two key US warfighting concepts – the Army’s field manual 100-5 and the 2012 Air Sea Battle. The exploration reveals a complicated relationship between civ-mil relations, an American and Army culture at a key domestic moment, and a geopolitical context which culminated to create a digital cult of the offensive in the information age. #civmil #digital #innovation #airlandbattle #airseabattle https://lnkd.in/gPWk5Usi

"What does this tell us about how cults of offensive arise? First, the information age case (like previous work on earlier cases) suggests that technology and political variables interact with each other in complicated ways. Humans and organizations may overestimate the offensive advantage of emerging technologies, but they are more likely to do so when the technology is relatively difficult to differentiate between offense and defense and when the geopolitical context allows for ambiguity. Domestic factors, whether it be the budget cycle or domestic control of the military, can cement some of these perceptions because of the long life cycle of research, development, and acquisition of large weapons systems. Finally, while this paper has largely focused on domestic- and national-level explanations for the cult of the offensive, the large role of DePuy and Starry suggests the role that individuals can play in shaping these perceptions – especially as the intellectual head of an organization with power to fund weapons and build training and concepts."

The Pentagon is pressing ahead with new tech and new tactics in 2024, many inspired by the conflicts in Ukraine, the Red Sea, and elsewhere. It's also working hard to boost production of existing weapons and figure out just how it would wage a major conflict in the Pacific. But progress has been hindered by the budgetary chaos in Congress, where debate is just beginning on next year's spending plan. Defense One is proud to present State of Defense 2024, a service-by-service look at how the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Space Force are modernizing and positioning for the year ahead.

Some great points made by INDOPACOM Commander, - Adm. Sam Paparo, at the recent Indo-Pacific Irregular Warfare Symposium, as highlighted in Defense One. The USINDOPACOM theater demands greater SOF investment “SOF’s greatest power is early leverage” in deterring conflict “SOF is a cognitive space. It’s an idea space.” On information operations: “We should be in and among our adversaries, learning from them. They should never learn from us. If they are learning, it should be the wrong lessons.” Quick but interesting read: https://lnkd.in/efYUffhk

The Pentagon’s next Global Information Dominance Experiment — GIDE 12 — will put the minimum viable capability for Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control that officials have been collaboratively refining in recent years via this rapid experimentation series, to its most international test yet. Roots of the Defense Department’s GIDE series trace back to 2020, but in 2022, it was revamped when Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks tasked the Chief Digital and AI Office with strategically enabling technologies that could help realize the U.S. military’s nascent CJADC2 warfighting construct through the initiative. Each GIDE event is now leading up to a worldwide, joint activity where U.S. combatant commands and multiple international military partners collaboratively are expected to unleash next-generation command-and-control capabilities in late 2025. https://lnkd.in/gmdzTSXY

Missed the Forward Defense program's Oct. 12 panel of space experts, featuring John Klein, Dean Cheng, Col El Gardner, Franco Ongaro, and Audrey Schaffer? This conversation focused on irregular warfare in outer space and was moderated by Breaking Defense Space and Air Force reporter, Theresa Hitchens. Here are some key takeaways from the discussion: 1. Irregular warfare includes those malign behaviors that degrade an adversary’s advantage but fall short of armed conflict. 2. While irregular warfare in space is nothing new, it presents unique threats due to our adversaries’ growing reliance on irregular tactics, and the vulnerability of commercial space assets. 3. The most common irregular threats are non-kinetic, and involve dual-use systems used for military and non-military purposes. 4. Technological superiority alone will not effectively counter these threats. Successful strategy must be developed through coordination with the domestic private sector and our allies. Watch the discussion here: https://bit.ly/3F1e724 🚀

The Pentagon’s next Global Information Dominance Experiment — GIDE 12 — will put the minimum viable capability for Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control that officials have been collaboratively refining in recent years via this rapid experimentation series, to its most international test yet. Roots of the Defense Department’s GIDE series trace back to 2020, but in 2022, it was revamped when Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks tasked the Chief Digital and AI Office with strategically enabling technologies that could help realize the U.S. military’s nascent CJADC2 warfighting construct through the initiative. Each GIDE event is now leading up to a worldwide, joint activity where U.S. combatant commands and multiple international military partners collaboratively are expected to unleash next-generation command-and-control capabilities in late 2025. https://lnkd.in/eykf6ziE