NewEdge Wealth’s Post

See how the S&P 500 Index performed this week as tech continued to lead the rally and markets reacted to Fedspeak. Also, get a look ahead at upcoming economic and earnings releases. Inflation data, personal income, and personal spending along with updates on GDP, consumer confidence, and the housing market will be in focus. #Investing #WealthBuilding #RetirementPlanning

As we reach the midpoint of 2024, the economy grapples with familiar question that has persisted over the past couple of years. When will the substantial increase in interest rates significantly impact economic conditions? The famous “long and variable lag” associated with monetary policy appears to be slowing down the pace of growth. While stock markets continue to exude optimism, the fixed income landscape is adopting a more cautious stance. https://lnkd.in/g7yuPNNM

Since Invesco's 2024 outlook was published late last year, growth has remained considerably more resilient and inflation more stubborn than we anticipated. The degree of divergence across economies has also increased, with inflation taking different paths in major economies. In our midyear outlook update, we focus on the trajectory of inflation and how central bankers around the world are weighing the balance of risks as they begin to cut interest rates. Learn more.

Since Invesco's 2024 outlook was published late last year, growth has remained considerably more resilient and inflation more stubborn than we anticipated. The degree of divergence across economies has also increased, with inflation taking different paths in major economies. In our midyear outlook update, we focus on the trajectory of inflation and how central bankers around the world are weighing the balance of risks as they begin to cut interest rates. Learn more.

Since Invesco's 2024 outlook was published late last year, growth has remained considerably more resilient and inflation more stubborn than we anticipated. The degree of divergence across economies has also increased, with inflation taking different paths in major economies. In our midyear outlook update, we focus on the trajectory of inflation and how central bankers around the world are weighing the balance of risks as they begin to cut interest rates. Learn more.

I believe it is too early to sell stocks. However, if there is one risk that investors should monitor, it is a possible resurgence of inflation. There is a plausible scenario in which the economy does well this year, inflation increases, the new US President announces new spending programs, the market loses confidence in the sustainability of US debt, long term interest rates surge to 6-7%, and a financial crisis results. For more, click on the link below.

Since Invesco's 2024 outlook was published late last year, growth has remained considerably more resilient and inflation more stubborn than we anticipated. The degree of divergence across economies has also increased, with inflation taking different paths in major economies. In our midyear outlook update, we focus on the trajectory of inflation and how central bankers around the world are weighing the balance of risks as they begin to cut interest rates. Learn more.

Since Invesco's 2024 outlook was published late last year, growth has remained considerably more resilient and inflation more stubborn than we anticipated. The degree of divergence across economies has also increased, with inflation taking different paths in major economies. In our midyear outlook update, we focus on the trajectory of inflation and how central bankers around the world are weighing the balance of risks as they begin to cut interest rates. Learn more.

Since Invesco's 2024 outlook was published late last year, growth has remained considerably more resilient and inflation more stubborn than we anticipated. The degree of divergence across economies has also increased, with inflation taking different paths in major economies. In our midyear outlook update, we focus on the trajectory of inflation and how central bankers around the world are weighing the balance of risks as they begin to cut interest rates. Learn more.

Take a look at our firm's US macro outlooks weighted by probability. We have seen stickier insurance inflation and wage inflation as well as cracks in the economy appearing in select sectors. Junk bond defaults are up from 1.5% to 5% and the US consumer is showing signs of weakness. While "soft landing" remains probable; for these reasons we see cautiously optimistic tactical positioning as the best way forward for 2024.