NewEdge Wealth’s Post

There has been “a change of speed, a change of style” for the U.S. economic growth outlook. For the first time in over twelve months, U.S. GDP forecasts for 2024 have been trimmed, and with these cuts, the “new dawn” has faded for continued growth acceleration in the U.S. Read this week's #WeeklyEdge here: https://lnkd.in/eYjz_jTU #NewEdgeWealth

Banks tightened lending standards throughout 2023 as the impact of higher rates and stress in the banking sector caused concerns about the overall economy. More than half of banks reported tightening business lending standards in the second quarter, in the third quarter that number fell to around a third. While standards are tightening at a slower pace, the data is still consistent with an economy that should be slowing. Historically tight standards are not a guarantee of a slowdown coming, the tightening we’ve seen as of late suggests the economy should slow over coming months.

✍ Jonathan Prynn: Britain’s economy was flat in the third quarter — right? Well, no actually. Although the official GDP growth headline was zero, a closer inspection of the figures shows that output actually declined very slightly — by 0.0285% to be precise. The ONS statisticians just did what they always do, perfectly reasonably, and rounded it up to the published figure — 0.0%. Here's why this means we're closer to a recession than you think https://lnkd.in/emM-NKfK

From unexpected GDP estimates to shifting investor sentiment, the recent economic data has been nothing short of a rollercoaster ride. Dive into the details of the latest market movements, Fed policies, and the looming concerns over the commercial real estate market. Join us on a journey through the highs and lows of the economy with a hint of optimism in the air. #EconomicInsights #MarketMovements #FedPolicies #RealEstateConcerns #OptimisticOutlook

📈 U.S. Economic Snapshot: Q4 2023 📉 As we await Thursday's GDP report, forecasts predict a notable slowdown, with expectations of a 2% annual growth rate in the fourth quarter—down from 4.9% in Q3. The Federal Reserve's strategy of anti-inflation rate hikes has indeed impacted the economy, yet the resilience of consumer spending has mitigated the expected downturn. Key Insights: - Q4 GDP growth estimated at 2%, a significant drop from the robust 4.9% in Q3. - The Fed's anti-inflation measures, including rate hikes, have influenced credit costs but prevented a severe economic downturn. - Consumer spending remains a driving force, counteracting the impact of higher borrowing expenses. - Ian Shepherdson warns of potential surprises, emphasizing the uncertainty in economic data accuracy. While forecasts indicate a growth deceleration, variations in actual GDP figures may occur, and the latest government data release schedule adds an element of unpredictability. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Now tracker offers a slightly more optimistic outlook at a 2.4% annual growth rate. Stay tuned for Thursday's official figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, providing a comprehensive view of the economic landscape. #EconomicOutlook #GDPForecast #FedPolicyImpact

Just finished UMB Review of the Economy. In 2024, expectations are for the following growth rate: Real GDP--------------------------1.5-1.8% Inflation Core (sans Housing)----2.5-2.8% Unemployment------------------ 4.2-4.5% Fed Funds------------------------4.75-5.0% 10-YR Treasury-------------------3.75-4.0% S& P 500------------------------+10.0-14.0% If inflation slows down, Fed Funds can come down. Debt spending is here to stay and still has room to expand the deficit spending! in the short-run there won't be any impact on the economy. So, things aren't as bad as some politicians are making us to believe!

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that US real GDP expanded at a 1.6% annual pace in Q1 2024, a pace well below expectations and off from a 3.4% pace in Q4 and a 4.9% pace in Q3. The economy is slowing. Compared to year earlier, real GDP was up 3.0% y/y, a slightly slower comparison. The Q1 gain reflects increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, business fixed investment, and state & local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in inventories and stable federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Per dollar of output, goods are four times as chemistry intensive as services. The implicit price deflator is the broadest measure of inflation and it increased at a 3.1% pace in Q1, up from a 1.7% pace in Q4. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index less food and energy (or core inflation) is the Fed’s preferred measure and that increased at a much higher than expected 3.7%, up from a 2.0% pace in Q4. Inflation remains sticky (higher for longer) and this will weigh on the Fed’s decision on rate cuts or holding steady. The slowing of growth is towards the long-term potential of the US economy and nothing of alarm to the Fed at this point. The Fed’s tightening of monetary policy is fostering slower economic growth but limited success in slowing inflation. 

Can the economy keep up its momentum? Dive into our blog to explore the factors influencing economic acceleration and what it means for your investments. The U.S. economy is strong with Q2 2024 GDP up +2.8% and consumer spending rising +2.3%. However, cooling signs like higher rates and rising unemployment might lead to Fed rate cuts. Learn more here: https://loom.ly/Y1QbgKU #EconomicInsights #ACG #InvestmentInsights