NOC Innovations’ Post

Curiosity needs a topic. Some focus. The lightning rod on the town hall roof. My current subject? Blue Carbon: you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention. Blue Carbon benefits immediately from both an excellent name and marketable image, catchy and capable of conjuring idyllic images of seagrass, kelp and mangroves. Such traits can be a boon to engage people in marine conservation but has also helped bring the focus of the financial markets, of the carbon credit world: if this is to be the eye of Sauron or a bit fugayzi remains to be seen. This aside, it is clear Blue Carbon has great potential and but also real challenges. Despite the need for speed, these challenges must be addressed properly, and I believe with science and industry working together. I am not a Blue Carbon expert. But here at NOC, our scientists have a very particular set of skills and knowledge. I’m going to sit down with our scientists to pose some of my key questions: 🐙 What role can/does Blue Carbon have in the blue economy? 🐙 Is Blue Carbon truly one of the climate avengers here to help save the planet? 🐙 What are the challenges of measuring/valuing/quantifying Blue Carbon - how do we know what we are gonna get? 🐙 What is the role of Science, of NOC? 🐙 What of the future: - Are we moving quickly enough? - How do we deliver? - Is it time to do, or do not?   As I go along, I’ll try to share things I find curious, important, or hopeful - hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things as we look for practical solutions to the climate and biodiversity challenges we face. In the meantime, it is clear to me already that blue carbon requires a realistic approach around the current hurdles of implementation, policy and robust evidence collection. However, collaborations, openness and informed strategies can unlock Blue Carbon’s potential for climate mitigation. Where we go from here, is up to us.   As an added bonus for this post, I’m going leave you with a choice of two questions, depending on your mood (you can of course do both!): 1. Serious question - am I asking the right questions? 2. Less serious question – there are 12 nods to movies in this Blue Carbon post, did you spot them all?

The Busy Worker’s Handbook to the Apocalypse | Sam Hall | Medium On the topic of the upcoming Global Climate Apocalypse. Abstract Climate change will cause agricultural failure and subsequent collapse of hyperfragile modern civilization, likely within 10–15 years. By 2050 total human population will likely be under 2 billion. Humans, along with most other animals, will go extinct before the end of this century. These impacts are locked in and cannot be averted. Everything in this article is supporting information for this conclusion. Target audience is the educated but busy / swamped American worker who reads the occasional article on climate change and concludes that everything must be under control or else there would be urgent alarms going off right? That was basically me until a couple years ago when a period of unemployment gave me the opportunity to dive into the science and start evaluating the conclusions for myself. I do not expect anyone to read this entire article from start to finish. My hope is that it can serve as a decision making aid for answering some of the critical questions that we face when trying to make major life decisions and deciding how best to prepare for the future. It is organized like a reference book to make it easy to find a relevant section when a situation arises and you need specific information. “The most revolutionary thing one can do is always to proclaim loudly what is happening.” — Rosa Luxemburg Copyright Disclaimer: Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for fair use for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. https://lnkd.in/dYy5auxA

🚨NEW BLOG 🚨 Read our July blog, "Can Iron Fertilization of the Oceans Help to Alleviate the Climate Crisis?" In the quest to mitigate the effects of climate change, innovative solutions are being explored across various scientific disciplines. Among these, marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) methods have gained attention for their potential to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. One of the most promising approaches within mCDR is ocean iron fertilization, recognized for enhancing the ocean's natural carbon sequestration processes. Understanding Ocean Iron Fertilization Iron is a critical micronutrient that phytoplankton — tiny marine organisms — require for photosynthesis. Ocean iron fertilization involves the deliberate introduction of the metal into iron-limited ocean regions. When these areas receive an iron infusion, it stimulates the growth of phytoplankton blooms. These blooms, in turn, absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and transfer a portion of it to the deep ocean when the phytoplankton die and sink. This process effectively removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and stores it in the ocean, thereby helping to mitigate climate change. Scientific Recognition and Research The potential of ocean iron fertilization has been underscored by significant scientific bodies. In their 2022 report, for example, the U.S. National Academies acknowledged the method as one of the key strategies for enhancing natural carbon sequestration in the oceans. Similarly, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) highlighted its potential in their special report from 2023, emphasizing ocean iron fertilization’s role in exploring innovative solutions to combat climate change. Criticisms and Challenges However, ocean iron fertilization is not without controversy and challenges. Critics argue that its long-term environmental impacts are not yet fully understood. Concerns include potential disruptions to marine ecosystems, alterations in nutrient cycles, and uncertainties about the permanence of carbon storage in the deep ocean. Regulatory frameworks and international agreements also need to be developed to effectively govern and monitor such large-scale interventions. As scientists continue to explore and refine ocean iron fertilization techniques, it remains a compelling avenue for leveraging nature's mechanisms to combat the climate crisis. Through responsible research and global collaboration, we can harness innovative solutions like ocean iron fertilization to create a more sustainable future for generations to come. Join Vortex Universe in creating a better tomorrow, and visit vortexuniverse.com to read additional resources.

URGENT CLIMATE ACTION Focusing on CO2 emissions from human activities is justified due to the direct influence we can exert over these emissions and the strong link to global warming, but it is also essential to maintain a broad perspective that includes other factors affecting the Earth's climate system. This balanced approach ensures a comprehensive strategy for addressing the multifaceted challenge of climate change. The Theory of Anthropogenic Climate Change is that humans are causing most of the current changes to climate by burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Unlike cosmic or solar events, human-generated CO2 emissions are directly controllable through policy, technology, and behavioural changes. Focusing on reducing these emissions can lead to immediate and measurable impacts on the planet's climate. There is a robust body of scientific evidence that links CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted by human activities to global warming and climate change. This provides a clear target for mitigation strategies. "The Earth's average land and ocean surface temperature in 2023 was 2.12 degrees F (1.18 degrees C) above the 20th century — the highest global temperature among all years in NOAA's 1850-2023 climate record." https://lnkd.in/gicveXK8 Emphasizing CO2 emissions allows for the development and implementation of specific policies and technologies, such as renewable energy, energy efficiency improvements, and clean technologies, which can directly reduce the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere. Transitioning to low-carbon technologies and practices can drive economic growth through new jobs in renewable energy sectors, energy efficiency industries, and green technology innovations. While CO2 is a significant driver of climate change, the climate system is influenced by a variety of other factors, including solar activity, volcanic eruptions, and natural variability. Focusing too much on CO2 might oversimplify the complex interplay of factors that affect the climate. Heavy reliance on certain technologies to reduce CO2, like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), could lead to negative consequences such as biodiversity loss and competition for land with food production. Other Considerations – Solar Activity, Cosmic Events, and Planetary Climates: SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar irradiance has a role in climate variability. However, the consensus is that changes in solar energy output are minor compared to the effects of greenhouse gases during the Industrial Era. COSMIC EVENTS: Events like meteor impacts or supernovae are rare and largely unpredictable; their potential to affect climate is significant but not a practical target for climate action. PLANETARY CLIMATES: Studying other planets can provide valuable insights into atmospheric processes and climate dynamics, but these findings are less directly applicable to immediate climate action on Earth.

Trust in science often hinges on whether people perceive the implications of that science to threaten their lives and identities. For example, the complex and evolving science of dark matter rarely faces public skepticism, and it’s uncommon for those who study it to be the target of ad hominem attacks. The basic science of climate change, on the other hand, that explains how burning fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases that warm the planet, has been well understood for nearly two centuries; yet it is often publicly contested and scientists who study it, accused of venality and more. This isn’t due to any legitimate doubts about the scientific basis for climate science, but rather because of the implications it holds for individual and societal decisions. That’s why, when I talk about climate change with people, I don't usually spend much time on the physical science of climate change, even though that’s my primary research field. Instead, I emphasize how climate change affects our everyday lives and I also spend a lot of time talking about what social science shows will catalyze action: positive updates on climate solutions, stories of people and organizations making a difference, and ways everyone can catalyze change where we live, work, or study. My aim is to leave people feeling empowered and motivated to act—and based on some of the data I’ve collected, I think that’s possible. Read more of my interview here:

“The only way to solve the climate crisis is to phase out fossil fuels and transition the global food system…simultaneously.” – Johan Rockström Not one or the other. Both. Simultaneously. Far too often, solutions focus only on one or the other. But both are essential. And both are urgent. Who is Johan Rockström and what does he know? He’s a Swedish scientist. And not just any scientist –  Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He just won an award. And not just any award –  The Tyler Award. (commonly described as the “Environmental Nobel Prize”). Even if none of that means anything to you, this might: Rockström authored the Planetary Boundaries framework. (That’s why he won the Tyler Award.) Maybe you’re familiar with Kate Raworth’s “Doughnut”. Or maybe you’re familiar with the 9 boundaries themselves. They are (simplified for readability): 1. Climate Change (atmospheric CO2 <350 ppm) 2. Biosphere Integrity (<10 extinctions per million species / yr) 3. Stratospheric Ozone Depletion (<5% reduction) 4. Ocean Acidification (> 80% of mean saturation rate) 5A. Biogeochemical Flows (Phosphate: 11 Tg of P year) 5B. Biogeochemical Flows (Nitrogen: 62 Tg of P year) 6. Land System Change (75% Wt Avg of individual biomes) 7. Freshwater Change (Blue: 10.2%, Green: 11.1%) 8. Atmospheric Aerosol Loading (0.1 mean ann. difference) 9. Novel Entities (0 released w/o adequate safety testing) As of September 2023, 6 out of 9 boundaries have been crossed. So what? Phasing out fossil fuels is urgent & essential. But so is transforming our food system. And all of us can play a role – 3x/day – with what we buy & eat. #sustainability #leadership #food

Six of the nine defined planetary boundaries have now breached safe operating limits, primarily due to human impact. This is a shocking statement, and one which I referenced extensively in my last semester. Richardson et al.’s research, published in Science Advances in September 2023 (just before I began my final year as an undergraduate) explains that although these breaches are severe, humankind now faces a significant opportunity to safeguard our planet. With exam results published yesterday, I have officially completed half of the final year of my undergraduate degree! My learning and research so far completely support the importance of collective action of businesses and policymakers, to ensure our planet’s remaining carbon budget is not exhausted and further safe operating limits are not breached. Two recent pieces of my research were a meta-analysis of biodiversity hotspot data and their species-area relationships, as well as my final year project, which investigated the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on oceans and the implications for biodiversity, both of which scored an upper First class. My final year project called for less siloed approaches to anthropogenic climate change research and policy. Climate perturbations are occurring simultaneously and at an unprecedented rate; cooperative, meaningful action is more important now than ever before. I really look forward to this coming semester, continuing my studies of climate change policy, economic development, and the economics of social issues. I plan to use and develop my knowledge as a graduate and hope to contribute to important climate goals in the future! (A good summary of the paper is available here, if you’re interested! https://lnkd.in/ei92E4_m.)

I am very happy to share the second paper of my PhD, published yesterday in Environmental Research Letters: https://lnkd.in/eBCwUxbX. This paper takes the work that we published last year on the potential of #forests to store #carbon one step further. I looked at the interaction between climate, growth and forest disturbance in the light of #climatechange. I developed a modelling framework that uses machine learning to combine different sources of information on climate and forests in such a way that it becomes possible to evaluate how different sources of information change our understanding of how forests will develop in the future. The result of this analysis shows that that different sources of information on the direct effect of CO2 on vegetation growth (through potentially enhanced photosynthesis) lead to even higher uncertainties than the simulations of future climate do. Especially worrying: the IPCC assessment and policy making rely predominantly on the most optimistic approach, in which forest will be able to continue taking advantage of higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. Instead, the most pessimistic approach shows only very little room to store more carbon in forests, without very substantial afforestation/reforestation. Particularly important to this is the intensitification of natural disturbances such as fire, storms and floods, which are all enhanced by the changing climate. What does this mean in practice? We need to carefully evaluate the initiaves and policies that aim to reach carbon neutrality in the coming decades. Forests play a crucial role in these initiatives, but how forests will deal with a changing climate and if they will be able to help us mitigating climate change is still an open question. In the worst case scenario we would hardly be able to count on forests for #climatechangemitigation, which would require a substantual increase in needed efforts to reduce carbon emissions to compensate for the lack of 'planned' carbon storage in forests. Relying on forests to achieve carbon neutrality in the coming decades is therefore a risky bet according to current scientific developments. Thanks to all the coauthors: Luca Caporaso, Alessandro Cescatti, Gregory Duveiller, Edouard Davin and Sonia Seneviratne

Have you wondered why inspite solid scientific evidence that anthropogenic climate change will affect the conditions for life on earth, little climate action is taking place?. To answer this question, one has to understand the overlapping contradictions and paradoxes around climate change issues when coceptuallised in a societal context. These can be categorised into the following; - Competition between traditional and modern environmental problems(eg Climate change) - The paradox of the irrelevance of tacit knowledge (Knowledge acquired by people through their long-standing experiences and skills). This knowledge shapes the lenses through which people with the exception of climate scientists make sense of contemprorary climate change. - Specialization versus the need for integrating knowledge; science has removed itself from society and become more and more closed to non-scientists making fewer and fewer people ‘competent’ enough to control the increasing number of specialists. There is practically no room left for the ‘public intellectual’ in modern society. The more society gets dependent on advanced and specialized knowledge, the more difficult it will be for non-experts to grasp and critically relate to this exponentially growing body of knowledge. And hence knowledge itself will not be enough to cause action on a problem to be taken. - The impossibility of scientific solutions to modern environmental problems. Science can through engineering skills develop ‘scientific solutions’ to problems in society. Engineering skills will also be important for meeting many of the challenges of climate change. However, the solution lies in the interaction between nature and society and will require new ways of linking natural and social sciences to practical problem-solving. This, however, also means that the natural scientists will need to enter into much of the same role in relation to society as the social scientists have had to accommodate to for a long time, that of taking part in a bargaining over political priorities and competing values. - The top-down versus bottom-up paradox. This leads us to a fundamental question concerning the linking of science and action: Who are the relevant users of knowledge? The fundamental challenge of climate change is the way in which the problem has become an integrated part of both nature and society. The well-known slogan ‘Think Globally but Act Locally’ hits at the core of the dilemma. The challenge is global but it is caused by billions of individual acts and decisions every day; and in order to address the problem, billions of big and small actions and decisions all over the globe have to be changed. That means the users of knowledge are found everywhere.

Our latest collaborative review paper is now available online 👇 “A systematic review of the nexus between climate change and social media: present status, trends, and future challenges” Social media and climate change are some of the most controversial issues of the 21st century. Despite numerous studies, our understanding of current social media trends, popular hot topics, and future challenges related to climate change remains significantly limited. Our latest research, therefore, presents a systematic review of climate change and social media for the first time. We reviewed the studies published between 2009 and 2022 in places like Google Scholar, Science Direct, Web-of-Science, Scopus, ResearchGate, and others. After extensive screening, the articles that are most relevant to our goals and study design, were reviewed following the PRISMA framework. The study has now been published in the Frontiers in Communication (Q1) journal, under the Science and Environmental Communication section. Please take a look if you are interested. Thanks to all the coauthors for their valuable contributions. Special thanks to the corresponding author Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam, PhD for including me in this exciting research project. https://lnkd.in/ghpQ7BNx #climatechange #environment #futuretrends #sustainablefutures #socialmedia #systematicreview #prisma #collaboration #research #q1