Noemie Benhamou’s Post

This is the FT explaining why Japan has been hit particularly hard in the recent global market meltdown Despite recent bullish “Japan is back” rhetoric, and the all-time highs hit by Tokyo stocks in July, the story only ever had fragile support. Domestic institutions and individuals were never buying into the market with strong conviction, meaning that the heavy lifting of the recent rally was largely driven by foreigners. It means these investment “tourists” can pull out of the market with extraordinary speed — and they have done so. So the market rally would have been more durable if Foreigners AND Individuals AND Domestic Institutions had all been buying “with strong conviction”. Which raise the interesting - and unaddressed - question. Who would they have been buying from ? These three groups hold the vast bulk of Japanese equities . The only other major shareholders, Corporates and Banks, are but a shadow of their former selves. Contrary to conventional wisdom a bull market does NOT occur because everyone is buying as every share bought is also a share sold. Or am I missing something?

⚠🎌 𝗡𝗞𝗬 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘂𝗻 𝗳𝗹𝗮𝗴   Exciting news from Japan's financial markets! 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗶𝗸𝗸𝗲𝗶 𝟮𝟮𝟱 (𝗡𝗞𝗬) 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟵.   Amidst the hype surrounding Japan's market resurgence, there are compelling reasons to believe this rally could be more than just a flash in the pan. Corporate fundamentals are showing real promise, with earnings per share projections for 2024 and 2025 bucking the global trend and remaining optimistic. Additionally, Japan's corporate governance reforms, part of the Abenomics plan, are beginning to bear fruit, evident in record corporate buybacks.   Japan's market dynamics, including a greater prevalence of passive investment and healthier corporate balance sheets, offer a unique landscape for value investors. Coupled with the optimism reflected in the Tankan survey of Japanese executives, driven by robust labour market conditions, there's a solid case for continued growth.   While risks remain, the overall outlook for Japanese stocks appears favourable, grounded in tangible economic factors rather than mere speculation. If on top of that you add a baby boom largely encouraged by the government and the first initiatives put in place by Yoshiharu Izaki, the mayor of Nagareyama… Perhaps we can finally say that Japan is on the road to recovery.   Let's see!   #Japan #Nikkei225 #MarketFinance #BabyBoom #AllTimeHigh   𝘗𝘚: 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦.

Hey LinkedIn Friends! Recent events of the Japanese Yen's 💴 decline has left me wondering what does this mean globally? Where are the opportunities in this? ✨Let me give you a quick dive into strategic Insights for curious Investors The recent dip in the Japanese yen isn't just a currency fluctuation—it's a signal to global investors. Here’s what you need to know: 💡Immediate Impact - A weaker yen makes Japanese goods more competitive internationally, potentially boosting Japan's exports. For countries and businesses importing Japanese products, costs may decrease, affecting global supply chain economics. 📈 Long-Term Effects - This currency shift could influence investment flows. U.S. and global investors might find Japanese assets more attractive, as their lower prices could promise higher future returns once the yen rebounds. Additionally, Japanese companies could leverage their increased competitiveness to expand overseas, impacting local markets and competitors in emerging economies. 🌟 Innovative Opportunities - The dynamic created by the yen's volatility can inspire new financial products and strategies. For example, investors could explore currency-hedged investments to capitalize on these fluctuations or consider entering Japanese markets with a long-term growth perspective. 🤔 What's Next? - Monitoring how Japan's monetary policy responds to the yen’s movements will be crucial. Strategic investors will need to consider the potential for regulatory changes, interest rate adjustments, and economic interventions that could either stabilize or further fluctuate the yen. How do you feel about this? Let me know your thoughts below! #GlobalFinance #InvestmentStrategy #EconomicInsights #EmergingMarkets #JapaneseYen #USD #MiddleMarkets #Economy #Investing #Finance #Opportunities

The recent significant drop in the Japan stock exchange has sent ripples through the global financial markets. This downturn, influenced by a mix of economic indicators and geopolitical factors, highlights the interconnected nature of our world economy. Key economic indicators from Japan, including export data and manufacturing output, have shown signs of slowing growth. These trends can affect investor confidence and market stability. For businesses, understanding these market dynamics is crucial. It’s essential to develop strategies that can weather such economic fluctuations. Diversifying investments, maintaining liquidity, and focusing on long-term goals can provide stability during turbulent times. Staying informed and adaptable is key to resilience in today’s volatile market environment. #japan #nikkei #yen

Japan was in the news not too long ago for finally setting a new market high since its previous high in 1989. Revisiting Japan's market history can be a good example of a country going years/decades without positive returns. Although the U.S is not the same as Japan, many investors do expect the U.S to continue to outperform into perpetuity. Using Japan as an example though, may be a good idea. Investors in the 80's likely did not expect the Japanese market to go 30 years without new high's. Some of the concerns about the Japanese markets in 1989 do resemble some of the same concerns as the U.S markets now (a few companies carrying returns and high valuations). This is not a prediction that the U.S market will have the same outlook as Japan did after 1989. Rather, this example is a reminder of why global diversification in portfolios can be crucial for long term investors. #WealthManagement #Investing

Reminder: Japan's Nikkei index is almost at its historic high of some 30 years ago. What's going on? Excited to have economist Anne Vandenbeele, Partner at The Capital Group and long-time Japan hand, join me to make sense of it all. Next Tuesday, 4-5pm Pacific (Wed, 9-10am JST), https://bit.ly/49qzKWF UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS) JFIT, UC San Diego #japaneseeconomy #japanesemarket #Japan #businessinjapan #businessreinventionjapan #business #nikkei225 #nikkei #stockmarket #japanesepolitics #japanesesociety #innovation #usjapan #japanus #capitalmarkets

Crash-testing Japan's New Capitalism https://lnkd.in/e7eCFa4z Global macro-cycle inflection — America’s cyclical downturn is poised to force the next round of Japan’s economic restructuring. "So if, as I suspect, the global macro cycle has started to reverse, U.S.$ appreciation is a thing of the past. From here, Y115-120/$ has become a reasonable target, likely to be reached over then next 6-12 months. For Japan this means corporate earnings expectations are now too high by around 15-20%, while at the same time forecasts for a Japan consumer-led recovery are too low." #japan #carrytrade

There is a lot of ink spilled on how we are a multipolar world - with America and China being two of the big ones. But in 2023 the big economic story in my eyes for Asia was essentially "JAPAN IS BACK BABY!" The stock market has been up and up. Investment is pouring in. But not just that - Japan is increasingly looking outward. India led a survey of Japanese manufacturing companies about promising countries or regions for business development for the second year in a row, as China slipped to third place behind Vietnam. https://lnkd.in/gCJEWm2C For many South-East Asian countries, Japan offers a vital hedge against the rival powers, as a source of capital, technology and aid. Over the past decade, Japanese foreign direct investment into ASEAN countries has totalled $198bn, behind America’s $209bn, but beating China’s $106bn. https://lnkd.in/gUAGuf7t Japan already has incredible soft power. When the hard power of investment follows that, I can only imagine the result being net positive. #asia #japan #globalization

Japan has always captivated macro enthusiasts like us. From our first visit over three decades ago to the highs and lows of its stock market, the nation's story is one of adversity and change. But as optimism resurges, we ask: Is this time different? Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/eaikDRc2 #Investing #Japan #MarketTrends #ForstrongInsights #ThoughtLeadership

As domestic yields have been depressed for so long, Japanese investors looked for ways to invest abroad to generate higher returns. They own $1+ trillion in Treasuries and $0.5 trillion in EUR bonds. Now that domestic yields in Japan might be on the rise, will they stop investing in foreign bonds? Welcome to another potential source of macro volatility.