Numerator’s Post

Heatflation. 🌡️🫰🥒🥔🫘🍎🌽 "heatflation could drive up food prices around the world by as much as 3 percentage points per year in just over a decade" "For overall inflation, extreme weather could lead to anywhere from a 0.3 to 1.2 percentage point increase each year" "Though that might sound small, it’s actually “massive,” [...] “That’s half of the Fed’s overall goal for inflation,”" 🪴As the environment becomes less and less predictable, we'll rely more and more on greenhouses in order to take back control when growing food. Shout-out to our portfolio company SERA, which helps run such greenhouses at maximum efficiency. https://lnkd.in/egS9NcpW

Between war and extreme weather patterns, the food supply chain has experienced quite a strain in recent years. Read about this and more affected industries: https://ow.ly/zn5O50QwKGp Source: Supply Chain Dive #FoodSupplyChain #GlobalSupplyChain #SupplyChainStruggles #FoodIndustryTrends #SupplyChainDisruptions

⛈️🛒 WEATHER FORECASTS DRIVE GROCERY PRICES UP It’s no secret that a warming world will drive food prices higher, a phenomenon increasingly known as “heatflation.” What’s less known, but a growing area of interest among economists and scientists alike, is the role individual extreme weather events — blistering temperatures in Texas, a destructive tornado in Iowa — may have on what U.S. consumers pay at the supermarket. At first glance, the answer might seem logical: A drought or flood that impacts agricultural production will, eventually, drive up prices. But it’s not that simple, because what consumers pay for groceries isn’t only reflective of crop yields or herd sizes, but the whole supply chain. That’s where it gets interesting: Economists are beginning to see a growing trend that suggests weather forecasts play a part in sticker shock. Sometimes the mere prediction of an extreme event — like the record-breaking temperatures, hurricanes, and wildfires forecasters are bracing for this summer — can prompt a spike in prices. It isn’t the forecast itself to blame, but concerns about what the weather to come might mean for the entire supply chain, as food manufacturers manage their risks and the expected future value of their goods, said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at The Ohio State University. “When it comes to the climate risk on food prices, people typically look at the production side. But over the last two years, we learned that extreme weather can raise food prices, [cause] transportation disruptions, as well as production disruptions,” said Lee. Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are among the reasons food prices have climbed 25 percent since 2020. Climate change may be contributing as well. A study published earlier this year found “heatflation” could push them up by as much as 3 percentage points per year worldwide in just over a decade and by about 2 percentage points in North America. Simultaneous disasters in major crop and cattle-producing regions around the world — known as multi-breadbasket failure — are among the primary forces driving these costs. Crop shortages in these regions may also squeeze prices, which can create volatility in the global market and bump up consumer costs. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/entr4td2 #GreenQueen #sustainability #climateaction #climatechange #foodsystems

🌍🍫 New Blog Update: What’s Driving Chocolate Prices? 🌧️Curious about the factors affecting chocolate prices? From unpredictable weather in cocoa-producing regions to fluctuating milk and sugar costs, the market is more changeable than ever. 🍫Check out our latest article on what’s happening and what it means for chocolate! ✨ 👉 https://lnkd.in/eJvBcmja #CocoaMarket #Sustainability

🌍🍫 New Blog Update: What’s Driving Chocolate Prices? 🌧️Curious about the factors affecting chocolate prices? From unpredictable weather in cocoa-producing regions to fluctuating milk and sugar costs, the market is more changeable than ever. 🍫Check out our latest article on what’s happening and what it means for chocolate! ✨ 👉 https://lnkd.in/eVfnjKQ2 #CocoaMarket #Sustainability

🌍🍫 New Blog Update: What’s Driving Chocolate Prices? 🌧️Curious about the factors affecting chocolate prices? From unpredictable weather in cocoa-producing regions to fluctuating milk and sugar costs, the market is more changeable than ever. 🍫Check out our latest article on what’s happening and what it means for chocolate! ✨ 👉 https://lnkd.in/eXsQ8Cr9 #CocoaMarket #Sustainability

***Fast Company: Just the idea of future bad weather makes your food more expensive*** How does this impact food and beverage companies? 1. Food companies operate on thin profit margins, so any increases in producer prices are typically passed on to consumers. To cover anticipated higher costs for commodities due to forecasted extreme weather, food manufacturers may boost prices preemptively as a risk management strategy. 2. Extreme weather events intensifying due to climate change are making the food supply chain more vulnerable to disruptions, increasing the likelihood of price hikes by food companies. 3. Major weather-related disruptions at "supply chain chokepoints" like vital shipping channels during harvest seasons can significantly impact food companies and drive up consumer prices. https://hubs.la/Q02B-Sx-0 #climatechange #cropsupply #foodsupplychain

Skimpflation vs. shrinkflation, or quality vs. quantity. In the example here, (a Whole Foods Market berry chantilly cake with a strong following), quality was the factor. A CNN article: https://lnkd.in/eEi2T9NH Due to the rise in cost, Whole Foods opted for using less expensive ingredients, but the followers wanted the recipe unchanged and expressed so on the #SNS. The only solution (for now) is to make it smaller - if the price is to remain the same. We will see how this turns out in a week or so. It depends on the context, but it is time for us to mull the impact of the #geopolitics AND the #climatechange on the #supplychain (and thus the price tag on everyday necessities). Taming #inflation should start somewhere, and the above is a practical point. This will eventually lead to a decrease in theft/violence at retail locations. #socialmedia #globalwarming

#inflation A view from the ground-level - living in the USA in 2024. Inflation has kicked in - rent went up by $50 a month last year and again $50 a month this year. Other utitilities and basic monthly commodities have gone up as well. So how do I cope ? No eating out - I'm a better and healthier cook than restaurants. I pick and choose among quality and cost and schedule my eat-out treats. I'm increasingly replacing eating out with nature walks, reading and with fruits and soothing drinks (climate warming is affecting me, or I'm changing my eating patterns to adapt to longer periods of warmth). I've zeroed out fried foods, seed oils and vegetable oils - that's a big saving in price and in health. I've cut back on moisturizers. Maybe I'll give the Feds some Vaseline. Oh - no more ice cream. Sorbets and iced teas are fine. Lemonades are great. Pineapple juice, mango anything is terrific (king fruits). I looked at juicy strawberries ... and apples and instead went for hydrating plums and am looking forward to watermelons.

*Coffee Market's Rally on Frost Scares* Weather forecasts circulating this week indicating cooler temperatures in Brazil have raised alarms about potential frost, triggering rallies in the Arabica and Robusta coffee markets. Unlike last winter, which had multiple frost warnings on temperature maps, this is the first alert of the season, possibly a contributing factor to the intense market reaction. However, when analyzing temperature maps, the risk of frost seems relatively low, or at least, unlikely to be widespread across the main growing areas. The Canadian model (which typically indicates colder temps) shows risk of frost in a small area of Sul de Minas for next Sunday, unllike the GFS model, which shows warmer temperatures. All the remaning timeframes in both models are consistent in showing above freezing (non-risk) temperatures. Notably, the cold front is mostly affecting the south of Brazil and making headlines on news, as its typical during winter. Although there is some coffee grown in the south (north Paraná), the bulk of growing regions is concentraded towards the Center-South, which faces low risk. Temp maps are subject to change and have recently been trending cooler rather than warmer, which means we can't disregard the risk of frost this season: as seen in Jul 2021, frost was initially underestimated, but it subsequently proved to cause significant damage to the crop. This means that ultimately we will have to wait and see what unfolds over the coming days. Should frost risk prove to be minimal as the charts indicate, the coffee markets may seek a correction on the downside, but if a Brazil frost strikes this market (which already faces deficit), we could see coffee prices climbing to rival all time highs.