ODRIMEDIA.co.ke’s Post

Polls show Trump & Biden getting equal support from the youngest voters (18-34), versus huge pro-Democrat voting margins in 2016 (+19% pts) and 2020 (+24% pts). Other evidence also suggests that “Gen Z” (birth years 1997-2012) is more pro-liberty, pro-capitalist, and pro-America than the prior 3 generations. ——— Douglas Murray: “There is an expectation that young voters must vote left because we see and hear the screaming, camping protestors on privileged Ivy League campuses. These people seem to act like automatons — all repeating whatever far-left orthodoxy they are expensively educated to chant that week. But these people are not representative. Most people in this country do not go to Ivy League campuses.” “And while much attention is paid to these privileged kids in privileged institutions, they do not represent their generation any more than they represent this country. What is more, a lot of students and other young voters absolutely hate this stuff. They hate the demand to conformity. They hate the presumptuousness of these people. And they hate the way in which the culture tells them that there is only one way to think or vote. Young people are meant to rebel. If the orthodoxy is blindly leftist then it is likely that a lot of younger voters are going to rebel against that. They might express that by becoming more conservative or right-wing. Or they might express it in the most ‘screw-you’ way possible: which is to vote Trump.” https://lnkd.in/e69NDkEX

Vice President Kamala Harris’s emergence as the Democratic Party’s nominee for president has changed the dynamics of the race with Donald Trump by energizing the party’s base. While the Harris-Walz campaign is gaining momentum in national polls, the swing states that will matter most in the election remain tied in most polls. Moreover, two weeks after VP Harris entered the race, swing state polls continue to show that a large segment of Black voters are not yet willing to commit to voting for the Democratic ticket. Many statistical models show that a 5-to-7 percent decline in Black votes from where the Biden-Harris ticket performed in 2020 will make it very difficult for the Harris-Walz campaign to win. Therefore, we must do everything we can to convince Black swing voters to stay with the Democrats! The Alliance for Black Equality (https://lnkd.in/gWjp4YDd), a 527 independent expenditure committee (or Super PAC), is taking up this challenge by educating Black swing voters in Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia about the dangerous threat that Donald Trump’s anti-Black policy agenda as outlined in Project 2025 presents to their futures. Using the insights generated from message-testing experiments we’ve been running since the start of the cycle, ABE will attempt to inform and mobilize 300,000 Black swing voters through digital ads on X (formerly Twitter), TikTok, and YouTube. Our first two ads will go into production next week, but we want to produce six more before November 1st. If you would like to help us hold Donald Trump accountable for his racist agenda and contribute to Kamala Harris’s historic bid to capture the White House, please register to join the national kickoff call next Thursday, August 15th at 7:00 PM CT | 8:00 PM ET | 5:00 PM PT. You can register for the call here: https://lnkd.in/gjxcVaEB During the kickoff call, we will present detailed findings from the tracking polls of the Black electorate that we have commissioned, preview our ad content, and gather your feedback on the project. If you can’t join us next Thursday but would still like to support the project, please visit our ActBlue page: https://lnkd.in/gnkvmvPB.

New Post: Walz vs. Vance: New poll reveals which vice presidential nominee is favored among voters - https://lnkd.in/g6frf8ez Gov. Tim Walz currently has a higher favorability rating than Sen. JD Vance among voters, according to a new 2024 survey on the vice presidential candidates.A new Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos survey found that Walz is favored by 39% of Americans, compared to Vance's 32%, while 30% have an unfavorable opinion of Walz. However, Americans may still be forming an opinion of Vice President Harris' running mate, as 31% of respondents did not answer the question.Additionally, 44% of Americans said they disapprove of Walz as Harris' running mate.MINNESOTA BUSINESS OWNERS SOUND ALARM ON HARRIS' ‘NIGHTMARE’ VP PICK: ‘REALLY BAD FOR THE US’ Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaks during a campaign rally with Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, at the Liacouras Center at Temple University on August 6, 2024, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Andrew Harnik)Asked about their opinion of Vance, 32% of respondents have a favorable view of the Ohio senator, while 42% have an unfavorable opinion of Trump's running mate. About 26% of respondents did not answer the question, 5 percentage points less than those giving an opinion of Walz. VP candidates Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance. (Left: Jeff Swensen/Getty Images, Right: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)VIDEO SHOWS WALZ PRAISING CONTROVERSIAL MUSLIM CLERIC HARRIS CAMPAIGN SAID HE HAD NO ‘RELATIONSHIP WITH'Among rural voters, Vance is up 13 percentage points over Walz. The Ohio senator also holds a significant lead, net positive 37 points, among White evangelical Protestants. U.S. Senator and 2024 Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance speaks during a campaign rally at the 2300 Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on August 6, 2024.  (Ryan Collerd/AFP)Walz remains ahead by 16 points among people under 40 years old and is seen more positively among both men and women, according to the survey.CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPThe poll was conducted from August 9 to 13 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.The two dueling candidates are expected to go head-to-head in the first vice presidential debate on CBS News on Oct. 1. Aubrie Spady is a Writer for Fox News Digital. Source link

Election 2024: Those Who Lecture Versus Those Tired of Being Lectured Hectoring the electorate on its supposed ignorance or moral shortcomings has become a Harris campaign trademark. By Victor Davis Hanson October 17, 2024 The election is finally shaping up to be not only liberal Democrat Harris versus conservative Republican Trump. Instead, it has become a larger contest between those who talk down to their fellow Americans and those who are increasingly sick and tired of being lectured. How smart is it, for example, for Harris supporters to claim nonstop that ex-president Trump is a fascist dictator—and thus, by extension, those also who vote for him? Women voters poll about 53-5 percent for Kamala Harris. Trump enjoys a similar, although likely somewhat smaller, majority margin of male voters. Yet Harris—along with campaign surrogates Barack Obama and Bill Clinton—has been lecturing both black and white male voters nonstop that they are misled. The Harris campaign was further hurt by past videos that keep popping up of Harris lecturing voters about how they either must think correctly or remain cluelessly selfish or ignorant. So, a recent clip surfaced on Columbus Day 2021 of a Vice President Harris lecturing America about Western civilization’s “shameful” sins in discovering the new world. Another video reveals Harris warning the country in 2020 on national television that the massive post-George Floyd demonstrations—that had turned violent and deadly—were not and should not stop, as if the country had to pay collective penance for its sins. Or they supposedly suffer from false consciousness—as if they have no clue that Harris and her progressive agenda are really in their own self-interest. Such haughtiness reached a zenith when Harris ran ads of actors costumed as supposedly working-class men. They voiced scripted talking points to prove that “real” men are progressive Harris supporters. But the actors were so patently ridiculous, their canned lines so unreal, that most viewers likely thought the ads were run by Trump himself—to show how arrogant, out-of-touch elites must imagine how the so-called “clingers” and “deplorables” think and talk. The Trump campaign also tries all sorts of strategies to win over women voters, from promising to rectify the Biden-Harris hyperinflation to reducing spiraling crime in towns and cities. But one method they avoid is claiming women are ignorant of their real self-interest and deluded by Harris—accurately assuming that a candidate does not win voters by belittling their intelligence. Harris and Obama both dressed down black men, claiming they are especially culpable for not voting en masse for Harris—even though a far higher percentage of black males will vote for Harris than for Trump. This hectoring the electorate on its supposed ignorance or moral shortcomings has become a Harris campaign trademark.

Trump has launched a campaign targeting Black voters. According to CNN, "an aggregate of network polls found dwindling interest in President Biden among Black voters." Although there was a drop among Black voters ages 50 northward, those under have no doubt gone south by more than 40 points leaving Biden with 37 points as opposed to his 80 in 2020. However, this is not new with big names that have a direct ear into the conversations of young Black voters, such as Curtis "Fifty-Cent" Jackson and Charlamaigne from the Breakfast Club with over 5 million listners. Biden is old and out of touch. Among Black men, Biden had never beat Trump for their votes. Many Black males suffered under the Clinton-Biden "Anti-Terrorism Effective Death Penalty Act" (AEDPA ) which doled out longer sentences and dangerously limited the number of appeals. Black men and entire Black families suffered tremendously under AEDPA. While Clinton publically apologized to the Black community, Biden has not. One of the mistakes that Democratic leaders make when attempting to court the Black vote is to seek approval from the Black elite. The Black elite, who are often out of touch, have little if any, influence among the Black youth. As a result of not understanding how to reach Black youth, the Democratic party is out of touch. The Black population is relatively young. In 2022, according to Pew Research, the Black median age was 32.1 and just under half was younger than 30. Harry Enten, data reporter for CNN said, "we’re careening towards historic performance for a Republican presidential candidate, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades." Whether this is the case or not will be seen in approximately north of four months. Personally, I think that Black voters will simply not show up at the polls, which in any case will be a victory for Trump.

New Post: Everything, and nothing, is black and white in US elections - https://lnkd.in/gVmtZDVE: For most blacks in America, Donald Trump's claims of bettering their lives is a great white lie. But that hasn't stopped the former President from trying to pry away Black votes from Democrats with the latest tactic of questioning Kamala Harris' black identity. Trump supporters are now bombarding social media with visuals purporting to show Kamala Harris' Indian heritage, which she has happily owned while embracing a primarily Black identity.Trump's MAGA flock though cannot seem to get their heads around the fact that people can be bi- or multi-racial. Hashtags such as #KamalaisIndian and #FakeBlack trended in the MAGAsphere, while Trump himself led the way on Thursday by posting a photo of Kamala dressed in a sari sitting with her maternal grandfather P.V.Gopalan and her grandmother Rajam, with a cheeky message that read: Thank you Kamala for the nice picture you sent from many years ago! Your warmth, friendship, and love of your Indian heritage are very much appreciated.” Also seen in the photo is Kamala's sister Maya Lakshmi Harris, who is married to Tony West, a former U.S. associate attorney general. Both Tony West, who is Black, and Maya Harris, who has been Kamala's campaign manager in the past, are part of her inner political circle. Since Trump himself said earlier this week that he has known Kamala only indirectly, it is unlikely she sent him the photo. But such claims are par for course considering current political playbook (on both sides) involves fudging, distorting, and conflating issues and data to score political points. So far, there are no indications that Trump has made any dent in the Democratic stranglehold on the Black vote after initial signs of weaning away some when Biden was the Democratic nominee. A CNN poll of 1,631 registered voters, conducted between July 22-23, found Kamala Harris has the support of 78 percent of Black voters, with Trump at 15 percent. A previous poll taken before Biden pulled out the race showed 23 percent of Black voters backing Trump.Those numbers seem generous considering Trump received only 8 percent of support from Black voters in 2020, according to Pew Research. One political commentator said the swift shift in support from Trump to Harris among Black voters "tells you something about how fickle Trump's support was among these voters...Once they had a viable alternative that also happens to share their racial identity, they jumped ship from Trump almost instantly." While Trump going below the 8 per cent black vote he got in 2020 is hard to imagine, even some of his supporters are aghast that he inadvertently tried it at the trainwreck of an interview earlier this week at a convention of black journalists. In one crash and burn moment during event, Trump said illegal immigrants are taking away "black jobs," leading th

Why It Matters

At 2040 Strategy Group, we've been advising candidates and campaigns on how to connect with Black voters in 2024. Some pundits think conservative messaging to Black men will help consolidate this group; the evidence suggests this would be a mistake. In our first Medium post digging into the 2024 election, we look hard at how Black men see themselves, and how Democrats can reach them more effectively. https://lnkd.in/gWQf_RbA

Some highlights from the latest Times/Siena polls on the presidential race... - Trump leads Biden among likely voters in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and (narrowly) in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. - RFK Jr. still winning an average of 10% of the vote across 6 swing states, drawing roughly equally from the two major-party candidates. - Nearly 70% of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely. - Among the 15% of voters who believe that the political and economic systems ought to be torn down, Trump leads by 32 points. - Biden’s losses are concentrated among moderate and conservative Democratic-leaning voters, who nonetheless think that the system needs major changes or to be torn down altogether. - Trump’s strength is largely thanks to gains among young, Black and Hispanic voters. (1) https://lnkd.in/e6S2xXk2 (2) https://lnkd.in/ezrUrAUU

In my opinion, latest polls demonstrate the urgent need for popular-majority-winning political innovation among those committed to a stable constitutional democracy. Demand for change is growing, and voters will turn to fringe or anti-democratic candidates if they are the only ones offering it. Read more about this in my latest post to Medium: https://lnkd.in/eAfcR6Dr