OUSH-OHPU’s Post

🇺🇸🇨🇳 As China rises in Indo-Pacific, US must avoid ‘devastating’ budget cuts: senior diplomat Substantial budget cuts could ruin American overtures in the Indo-Pacific region as China’s military footprint and diplomatic muscle expand rapidly, Daniel Kritenbrink, the State Department’s assistant secretary, told the US Congress. The administration of President Joe Biden has requested US$511 million for diplomatic efforts in East Asia and the Pacific region. It has also sought US$2 billion for a new infrastructure fund to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative, US$1.4 billion for foreign aid and US$2 billion for “game-changing” investments in the region. Republican lawmakers have countered that much of the spending is frivolous and wasteful, calling for a 12% cut in outlays. #USA #China

In an analysis for @ForeignPolicy, I explore the prospects for a peace deal between #Armenia and #Azerbaijan and the opportunities and challenges it could bring for regional economic connectivity. A few key highlights: -As fighting rages in the Middle East and Ukraine, another conflict-ridden region adjacent to both war zones may be on the precipice of a long-elusive peace. That region is the South Caucasus, where diplomatic efforts are underway between Armenia and Azerbaijan to strike a peace agreement following Azerbaijan’s victory in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. -The road to peace here may be quite literal. On Oct. 26, while at a summit in Tbilisi, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced an initiative known as the Crossroads for Peace, which calls for building transport connections to each of Armenia’s neighbors—Georgia, Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. However, there are many potential hurdles to this initiative and the broader peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan that underpins it, including domestic opposition and the position of key actors like Russia.  -Despite potential hurdles, there is a real chance for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which could significantly enhance the connectivity of the region to the benefit of millions of people. 

Peace initiatives Russia’s preconditions for peace talks will change depending on the situation on the ground. Russia is ready to negotiate a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict as early as tomorrow, its proposals "are on the table," and it does not matter where the negotiations will take place: in Minsk, Istanbul or Switzerland. However, the negotiations "will never happen" if Kiev continues to name the withdrawal of Russian troops among its essential preconditions. West’s response to Russia’s peace initiatives was expected: " I think that some level-headed politicians will think about whether my proposals are realistic enough, unbiased, and in accord with the interests of all contracting parties." Kiev government The incumbent Kiev government is reluctant to give up power and, therefore, has no plans of holding elections in accordance with Ukraine’s constitution: "They will keep delaying a ceasefire, they are interested in our military presence in these territories, because they are not interested in holding elections." NATO in Asia The bloc system is becoming more active in Asia, NATO is practically ‘moving’ to the region, which poses a security threat to Russia and demands a response. "We see what is going on in Asia: the bloc system is being put together. NATO is practically moving there permanently. This, of course, poses a threat to all countries in the region, including Russia. We are obliged to respond to this, and we will do so," Putin said. South Korea’s concerns The Republic of Korea has nothing to worry about the new Russian-DPRK treaty, because Russian military aid "will happen only in case of an aggression against one signatory." the Russian leader said. South Korea does not plan an aggression against North Korea, which means "there is no need to be afraid of our cooperation in this area." (Part Two, Continued in Part Three in the next post) #business #finance #financialservices

#Transnistria and #Moldova a minor drama but shows Russia's periphery will not settle Transnistria, the pro-Russia, separatist region on the border of Moldova and Ukraine, had appealed mainly to Russia, but also multilateral organisations such as the UN, to provide "protection" against what it describes increasing pressure from the government of Moldova, eg higher import taxes imposed earlier this year. The political body issuing the declaration, the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies, has not assembled since 2006, when it successfully initiated a referendum in favour of joining the Russian Federation. The Congress stopped short of an explicit request to annex with Russia, contrary to the prediction of at least local politician. The internationally-recognised government in Moldova is aligned with the EU, with negotiations underway for accession, and NATO, with ongoing military assistance. Echoes here of Georgia and Ukraine but Transnistria is unlikely to develop into another front of direct military conflict: Russia focused (bogged down) on eastern Ukraine and there is no direct supply line to Transnistria. But this is another example of how Russia's periphery will not settle down any time soon. More in my full report on Tellimer on the implications for some the best performers in global emerging markets over the last year, #Georgia #Hungary #Kazakhstan #Poland #Romania. https://lnkd.in/ej9ER4Ty #easterneurope #russiaukrainewar #russia

Hungary supports Chinese peace plan on Ukraine — Orban Hungary urges for an immediate ceasefire and peace talks, the prime minister said BUDAPEST, May 9/ Hungary supports any international initiatives aimed at putting an end to the conflict in Ukraine, including the peace plan proposed by China in February 2023, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told reporters after his talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Budapest. "We urge for an immediate ceasefire and peace talks. We support all international efforts aimed at attaining such goals. Accordingly, we support China’s peace initiative put forward by President Xi Jinping," he said. Orban pointed out that never in recent decades has the world faced such a serious military threat, "even the danger of a new world war." "Debates are underway whether the war will go on or whether we will have peace," the prime minister said, adding that Hungary was the only member of the European Union that calls for peace in Ukraine. "We, the Hungarians, are convinced that this conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield. The battlefield only leads to casualties and destruction. We are convinced that a solution can only be found at the table of peace negotiations and a ceasefire is needed to launch them," Orban concluded. #business #finance #financialservices

Excited to partner with former Senator Cory Gardner in today's The Dallas Morning News about the importance of supporting Taiwan as a beacon of democracy and as a US strategic priority, in the wake of Taiwan's peaceful, free and fair elections last week. BLUF: "Our policy should be to help Taiwan with robust U.S. military aid as well as renewed diplomatic efforts to rally nations around Taiwan. All of these activities are fully supported by a suite of U.S. laws, including the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, as well as more recent efforts, such as the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018 and the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act of 2019. .... Congress must move quickly to approve additional support to Taiwan along with aid to Ukraine and Israel, other democratic allies that are currently under attack. We must realize that the fight against authoritarianism is a global fight, and the United States cannot shirk our responsibilities as the leader of the free world." Read the whole piece here: https://lnkd.in/gTuxdRfY

China, Turkey could mediate Russia-Ukraine peace talks — former Czech president According to Milos Zeman, a ceasefire must be reached first PRAGUE, May 15/ China or Turkey could act as mediators in peace talks on the Ukrainian conflict, former Czech President Milos Zeman (2013-2023) said. "It is necessary [to start negotiations], to find a mediator that both sides [of the conflict] can trust at least a little bit," Zeman said in an interview published by the blesk.cz news outlet. "This could be China, or Turkey. These diplomatic negotiations are going on behind closed doors, which should prepare the ground for peace talks [between Russia and Ukraine]," he emphasized. According to Zeman, a ceasefire must be reached first. This will save "thousands of lives on both sides." The former Czech president also admitted that there is a "risk of Ukrainian defeat," which he "does not want." "Ukraine above all deserves peace, a dignified peace, not capitulation," he said. Zeman recalled that after February 24, 2022, he advocated comprehensive assistance to Ukraine, including military assistance. At the same time, he rejected the notion that this should have been provided starting in 2014, after Crimea joined Russia. At that time, he said, the most important thing was "the accession of the historical part of Russia inhabited by the Russian-speaking population." #business #finance #financialservices

The next Plenary Session is a special one! In the context of the war in #Ukraine, we have the opportunity to assist to a conversation between Thierry de Montbrial, chairman and founder of Ifri - Institut français des relations internationales and of the World Policy Conference, and 🗣️Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine). Follow this conversation on our livestream on our Youtube channel➡️🎥 https://bit.ly/40hToRk #WPC2023 #WorldPolicyConf #GlobalGovernance

In our piece for The National Interest, Riccardo Gasco and I analyze the dynamics of U.S.-Turkey relations under the Biden Administration, particularly focusing on issues concerning NATO/Russia and the Middle East. The article attempts to challenge the black-and-white narrative and explores the current complexities, particularly the ones caused by wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Plus, how will U.S. presidential elections shape the future of the US-Turkey relations? Find out at the link below.

EU Foreign Ministers' Historic Meeting in Kyiv For the first time, the EU Foreign Ministers are convening outside of their usual venues, choosing Kyiv for an informal meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council. This significant gesture underlines the EU's message of unwavering support and solidarity with #Ukraine. Foreign Minister Baerbock aptly captured the sentiment: "With this Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Kyiv we are bringing the European Union to where the heart of Europe is currently beating most strongly. The future of Ukraine lies in the European Union, our community of freedom.“ 🔹 Key Points of Discussion: • A comprehensive winter air defence shield for Ukraine to safeguard against infrastructural damages. • Addressing the long-term vision of Ukraine's EU membership, ensuring progress on the extensive reforms, especially in justice and the rule of law. • Security guarantees, building on the joint declaration on security commitments for Ukraine from the last NATO summit. For more detailed insights on the meeting's agenda, please see: https://lnkd.in/gePbjb2Y