Oxford Economics’ Post

How would a Trump presidency affect Latin America? We remain concerned about the potential fallout in Latin America from a second Trump presidency in areas other than a renewed trade war with Mexico. Nearshoring offers a potential offset to concerns over trade wars as efforts to reduce US dependency on China and Taiwan will continue. However, we are sceptical this will bring a broader uplift to Latin America or a regional FDI boom. Learn more: https://okt.to/ij1UG6 #USElections2024 #latinamerica #Trade

After spiking above $80pb on geopolitical risk, Brent fell this week as bearish fundamentals—driven by lacklustre demand in China—took over sentiment. Weak demand and strong supply growth will keep oil prices on a downward trajectory. Read our outlook: https://okt.to/vN0fh7

What are your predictions for the new governments first Budget on the 30th of October? We expect the government to present new fiscal rules, and increase both government spending and taxation. Join our webinar on 1 November as we analyse the main policy changes and assess the implications for our economic forecasts. https://okt.to/5xiPWe #ukbusiness #budget2024 #macroeconomics

What are top 5 retail markets that are set to benefit from megatrends? Our Commercial Real Estate Megatrend Resilience Index ranks the resilience of CRE markets across regions and sectors in relation to four critical megatrends: demographics, technology, geopolitics and climate. Demographics are an important driver for retail, especially population growth and income. This is reflected in our ranking where there is a mix of strong population growth – Australia, Sweden, and Malaysia – with high incomes – Sweden, Singapore, the US. For the full index and rankings, check out here: https://okt.to/E6jqlI #Megatrends #CRE #realestateresilience

Which Canadian metros are still hotspots for jobs? Canadian metro labour markets experienced a lukewarm first half of 2024, with slower job creation and rising unemployment rates. High vacancy rates and increasing underemployment suggest a mismatch in supply and demand for workers across the largest cities. Read our latest report on job prospects across Canada and the world’s major cities here: https://okt.to/Pt5Nqm We forecast hiring to slow through the rest of the year with Halifax and Calgary performing the best. From 2025, employment growth should pick up in the metros that have struggled in 2024, including Montreal and Edmonton. Calgary and Toronto will experience the fastest employment growth of the major metros in the period to 2028, like many others, buoyed by recent record population growth as these newcomers integrate more fully into metro labour forces. #Canada #metros #jobs

Is your business ready to tackle nature-related risks and new sustainability regulations? Ahead of COP16 Colombia starting in 6 days, watch our recent webinar where our economists delved into how businesses of all sizes integrate nature-related risks into business decisions and reporting requirements. https://okt.to/7CDRSm #naturerisks #sustainability #ClimateReporting

Explore our latest study quantifying Shell’s socioeconomic footprint in the Netherlands. 🔗 Download the full report: https://okt.to/9ruHnb In this study, commissioned by Shell, we consider not only the substantial economic contributions from Shell’s direct on-site operations, but also the indirect impact it sustains through its supply chain spending and tax payments. Furthermore, we also consider Shell’s wider contributions to society, the economic impact of its R&D spending, and its contributions to energy security. #Shell #economicimpact #supplychain

Is OPEC’s Oil Demand Forecast Too High? 📉 Find out more: https://okt.to/GTkXuw OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast to 1.9 million bpd for 2024 and 1.6 million bpd for 2025, citing slower growth in China. This remains above IEA's estimates of 900,000 bpd for 2024. We expect oil prices to stay pressured, closing the year near $70 per barrel if tensions in the Middle East remain stable. Meanwhile, Saudi inflation hit 1.7% in September due to rising housing costs, while Jordan’s eased to 1%. We forecast 1.7% inflation for both countries in 2024. MENA in a minute with Scott Livermore #OPEC #OilDemand #Inflation #MENAinAMinute

In general, emerging cities will be the star performers across APAC, while advanced cities in the ageing economies of Japan and South Korea will lag. That said, Australia’s major cities are exp ected to rank alongside India’s major cities in terms of employment growth over the next five years; aided by the recent surge in overseas migration to the country. Read more on our outlook for urban jobs growth across the world: https://okt.to/hRUeIi There are also many variations within countries, especially in China. We expect the relatively young tech city of Shenzhen to record robust rates of jobs growth between 2024 and 2028, while we forecast the northern city of Tianjin to see employment fall over the same period. And although we forecast Beijing and Shanghai to see significant employment growth in their office-based sectors, such as ICT and finance, employment falls elsewhere mean we expect total jobs to remain broadly flat over the next five years. #Asia #cities #jobs

Where will the fastest growth in tech spending come from in 2025? Find out here: https://okt.to/fpg5Q2 The prominent role of device spending and the sector’s cyclicality mean Asia’s tech spending is highly exposed to risks. If the speed of AI adoption proves slower than expected, demand for semiconductors could be suppressed. #TechSpend #supplychainmanagement #enterpriseIT