Hedge Funds: The "Dark Arts" of Merger Arb
For ~7 years I was the "not arb" guy on a team of merger arb jedis. I had a front row seat to the $ABBV / Shire drama, $NXPI and many other sorted episodes of craziness. With $SAVE / $JBLU in the headlines, we hope everyone is taking it in stride...
...Among the worst things about merger arb is the marriage of the (1) complexity (high...you need to be in the weeds)...(2) low ROA (3) downside jump / negative convexity (3) fixed universe and (4) performance pressure... these factors often combine to "make you do things, you don't want to do." During the inversion crazy of $ABBV and Shire, most funds had 9 and 10 figure positions in each. They were monster positions. The risk to the "guys in the seats" was missing the trade and "underperforming seat BETA." All the billionaires PMs were talking constantly about these trades..."I spoke to XXX and "his guy" said "blah blah blah" and that is why they are X% bigger than us..." The pressure to be involved, and in size, can be massive. Add in, like with $SAVE $JBLU that only things with big spreads allow you to outperform - duh ...so every year you have this big risk of under performance (and getting fired).
It is probably optimal to actually blow up once or twice in your career vs. playing it safe...from a personal compensation standpoint - which is a profoundly scary thought. Let me explain...if you "miss" the big ones regularly, you WILL GET FIRED. If you blow up when everyone else blows up...you might not get fired. The guy that takes irresponsible risk is going to get paid for 3-4 years, advance in their career and even if they blow up, will be able to get another gig. The guy that, perhaps, takes prudent risk, depending on the 2-4 year period, might get fired and never promoted so could be labeled a "bad PNL generator." This dynamic is certainly not just relevant to merger arb btw...
#mergersandacquisitions #riskmanagement #hedgefunds #mutualfunds #investmentmanagement #regulatory
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3wGood luck Ben! ✨