Peter Zimm’s Post

Looking forward to lively discussion with Richard Aboulafia, Ronald Epstein, and Kevin Michaels on the "Bold Predictions" panel moderated by Joseph Anselmo at AeroOne next week!

2024 editions of our Aerospace Raw Material Reports are coming soon!

Boeing's acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems - value-creating reunion or ill-timed distraction? In an article in the latest issue of Forbes, Our Favorite Texan (Cliff Collier) delivers characteristic straight talk about the pending deal. https://lnkd.in/gj9CMHVz (article may be behind a paywall) #aerospace

Persistent (and increasingly significant) under-supply of jet transport #aircraft by Boeing and Airbus is creating pressures for alternatives. The longer this persists and the greater the under-supply, the more these pressures will be amplified, especially if #airlines have no line of sight to relief.     Embraer is a capable designer and manufacturer of airplanes. They are the only successful entrant into the large jet transport space since Airbus entered the market. This said, they will need significant resources to enter this market. Embraer must not only develop a new airplane but also build a supply base (the current supply base is constrained), both of which will take time and resources. So, they will need partners.    Who would be the best collaborators for Embraer? Looking at this from a country standpoint, which nations have the means (and the willingness) to invest and/or #aerospacemanufacturing capability?   * Saudi Arabia – While domestic #aerospace manufacturing is less developed than MRO, the Kingdom has resources, willingness to invest, and ambitions to grow in aerospace. * South Korea – They have invested in aerospace and have elevated their capabilities, perhaps best embodied in the development of a new 4.5 generation fighter. * Japan – The nation has a considerable aerospace manufacturing experience and while the lessons of the SpaceJet / MRJ were painful, they may also prove instructive. Also, their industry is debating its reliance on widebody aircraft. * India – They have been building their aerospace design and manufacturing capability, seek to assert their aerospace technical and manufacturing independence in a context of growing geopolitical rivalry, and have a large, nascent domestic travel market to boot. * China – They already have a narrowbody offering (so are likely to benefit from under-supply situation have less of a need to partner) but a second generation C919 would be much more competitive in the global market.   Boeing and Airbus can’t fill all the orders for narrowbody aircraft right now. Ironically, this was Bombardier’s thesis for launching the CSeries. They developed a state-of-the-art airplane for the same cost as each of Boeing’s and Airbus’s narrowbody re-engining programs but were not able to break into the market. The incumbents were able to defend their positions at that time.    There is no doubt there are significant barriers to entry into the large jet transport space. The time to develop a new airplane and its supporting supply base may prove more effective than money in deterring prospective new entrants from success. Or, the time may be right this time around.

I just registered for MRO Americas 2024! Bringing together 16,000+ industry professionals, MRO Americas is the leading #MRO event in the industry and world renowned opportunity to connect with the entire aviation aftermarket. The three-day exhibition features nearly 1000 exhibitors from around the world, representing all levels of the airline supply chain. Content is available on the show floor at the Go Live! Theater and through a senior level conference providing a strategic look at the regional aftermarket. Join me in Chicago, IL on April 9-11, 2024. Register >> https://lnkd.in/gSkT-Nn2 I look forward to seeing YOU there! #MROAM #AviationWeek

Heartfelt thanks to Joanna Speed for a tremendous inaugural Raw Material Edition of The Aerospace Event! Speakers, panelists, and audience members shared and discussed views on raw material supply constraints, willingness to invest in capacity, pressures from other industries, enduring labor challenges, the need for financially healthy subtiers, and technological change, all of which are occurring against the backdrop of long term industry cycles and a shifting geopolitical environment. #theaerospaceevent #aerospace #rawmaterials

AeroOutlook authors Cliff Collier and Peter Zimm are featured speakers at The Aerospace Event's Raw Material Edition in Beverly Hills next week! #TAE2024 #TheAerospaceEvent #rawmaterials

Cliff Collier and I are looking forward to attending and speaking at the Raw Materials Edition of The Aerospace Event! The aerospace industry’s forum for all things raw materials promises insightful content, substantive discussion, and lively networking. Will we see you there? #AerospaceEvent #aerospacesupplychain