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The monthly decreases for June 2024 across all segments could indicate the start of a correction. However, since both the 6-month and 12-month trends are still positive, it is too early to say https://lnkd.in/gFdSm3Kg

September is September. September is a decline from the start.

The Conference Board #ConsumerConfidence Index® fell in September to 98.7 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August. #PresentSituation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 10.3 points to 124.3. The #Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined by 4.6 points to 81.7, but remained above 80. (A reading below the threshold of 80 usually signals a #recession ahead.) “Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current #labormarket situation softened further. #Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income." https://lnkd.in/eZEpHGqe

Today's consumer confidence bounce reflects both a recovery from what were very weak sentiment levels across the board in June as well as the interest rate cuts both actual and expected since then. As you can see, the confidence seems to line up well with interest rates when we account for longer term downtrends in both variables.

The annualized reading of the closely-watched consumer price index increased by 3.5% last month, above the pace of 3.2% notched in February, and more than the 3.4% expected. The year-on-year core figure, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel, stayed at 3.8%. Month-on-month, the overall consumer price index rose by 0.4% in March, staying at the 0.4% uptick seen last month, above the 0.3% expected. The core gauge also came in at 0.4%, above February's 0.3% growth. Our view: we should expect stock market drop today as investors will concern about financial performance of the companies going forward. The probability of the interest rate cut in June may decrease after today's released CPI data. So, the stock market will be disappointed and correction should finally start.

Positive news from today's #PCE data and yesterday’s surprising GDP report! The #Fed faces a balancing act: avoid rates too high for too long while not cutting too rapidly and risking #inflation. @DianeSwonk is sticking her forecast for a May rate cut. Find out why in her latest report.

Positive news from today's #PCE data and yesterday’s surprising GDP report! The #Fed faces a balancing act: avoid rates too high for too long while not cutting too rapidly and risking #inflation. @DianeSwonk is sticking her forecast for a May rate cut. Find out why in her latest report.

Positive news from today's #PCE data and yesterday’s surprising GDP report! The #Fed faces a balancing act: avoid rates too high for too long while not cutting too rapidly and risking #inflation. @DianeSwonk is sticking her forecast for a May rate cut. Find out why in her latest report.

Positive news from today's #PCE data and yesterday’s surprising GDP report! The #Fed faces a balancing act: avoid rates too high for too long while not cutting too rapidly and risking #inflation. @DianeSwonk is sticking her forecast for a May rate cut. Find out why in her latest report.

Positive news from today's #PCE data and yesterday’s surprising GDP report! The #Fed faces a balancing act: avoid rates too high for too long while not cutting too rapidly and risking #inflation. @DianeSwonk is sticking her forecast for a May rate cut. Find out why in her latest report.