Picheny’s Post

This metric tracks the gap between how consumers perceive their current situation and their expectations for the future. Historically, recessions haven't materialized until future expectations fall below present situation confidence. In other words, the risk of recession grows when consumers anticipate the future to be worse than the present. This spread often remains negative for a period before a downturn. What sets the current recovery apart is its unprecedented nature—it's the only expansion where the confidence spread has been negative almost from the start. While this doesn’t necessarily render the indicator obsolete, its consistent sub-zero readings throughout this recovery raise questions about its reliability compared to previous cycles. #Economics #RecessionIndicators #ConsumerConfidence #MarketAnalysis

Are you interested in learning how to predict a recession? Look no further than Dow Theory. This theory suggests that when transportation drops but production increases, there is a divergence that signals a decline in demand. In fact, this very divergence occurred before the 2020 recession. Understanding leading indicators like this can help you stay ahead of economic trends and make informed decisions for your business or investments. #recessionprediction #economicindicators #DowTheory

🔍 Why Do Recessions Happen? Understanding the Economic Downturn 🔍 In the world of economics, a recession isn't just about numbers—it's about the chain reactions that impact businesses, consumers, and industries alike. So, why do recessions occur? Here’s a breakdown of some key factors: 📈 High Interest Rates: Central banks often raise interest rates to control inflation, but this makes borrowing more expensive, leading to reduced spending by both consumers and businesses. 😟 Decreased Consumer Confidence: When people are uncertain about the future, they tend to save more and spend less. This drop in demand leads businesses to cut back, slowing down the entire economy. 💥 Stock Market Crashes: Sharp declines in the stock market can wipe out wealth and confidence, causing investors to panic and leading to a broad economic slowdown. 🌍 Global Economic Shocks: Events like oil price spikes, wars, or pandemics can disrupt supply chains and trade, contributing to a drop in global economic activity. 🏦 Debt Overload: Excessive borrowing by households, businesses, or governments can lead to defaults and reduced lending, which further restricts economic growth. In 2024, as we keep a close eye on global markets and policies, it’s crucial to understand these triggers. Whether you're a business leader or an employee, staying informed about the economic landscape is the key to navigating uncertain times. 💡 Pro tip: Recessions also bring opportunities. Companies with strong fundamentals often emerge stronger, and smart investors find ways to capitalize on downturns. Focus on resilience and adaptability! #Economics #Recession #FinancialGrowth #BusinessStrategy #EconomicTrends #Leadership

Do you have the right data to spot recessions? Our Economic Momentum Indicators provide the data you need to track recession risks across advanced economies, offering timely detection and regular updates so you can adjust your portfolio with confidence. Learn more today https://lnkd.in/eX6j_6uy #recessions #DMs #globaleconomy

In the ever-swinging pendulum of economic surprises, January served us a fire-ballular inflation report, leaving market temperatures—and tempers—higher than anticipated. 🔥 As raging shelter costs feed the flames, Wall Street weathered a cold shower never seen in recent history. 🌧️ But beyond the sprints of uncertainty lies a financial ecosystem robustly evolving; one where traditional indices wobble under the heat yet remain standing — demonstrative of endurance rather than fragility. As speculations mount on the Fed's next move, consensus leans towards steadiness amidst turbulence: holding rates steady seems likely in March—a testament to strategic patience and informed decisiveness. A calm amid an economic storm if you may. ⚖️ This tableau isn't merely about numbers fluctuating on screens but reflects deeper narratives—of families adjusting budgets at dinner tables and businesses recalibrating strategies in boardrooms. Question looms large: Can stability be summoned amidst chaos? Will holding rates steady awe or anchor investor confidence as we navigate through these rippling waters? The potential for unforeseen impacts on various sectors looms ominously but also brims with opportunity—for those with keen eyes and resilient strategies to adapt swiftly can not just survive but thrive. Engage below 👇with your insights or share how your sector is gearing up for uncertainties ahead. Perhaps anticipation mixed with tactful response is what crafts resilience in today’s dynamic economic climate. #EconomicTrends #Inflation #FOMC #Strategy #MarketDynamics

Is a #recession coming? Columbia economist Glenn Hubbard spoke with Andy Serwer about rates, inflation, the difficulty of executing a 'soft landing,' his outlook for the economy and business in 2024, how AI will continue to transform business, his concerns for universities today, healthcare, and more. "For rates to be at this level, for the monetary tightening to have happened, the weakness that we're starting to see in pockets of the job market, I do think we're still likely to see a recession over the next year or so. I don't think a very significant one but I think it will be there." #economy #stocks #inflation #business https://lnkd.in/dXEZwdTS

New #mondaymessage (brief as always)! 🔮 This time of the year always brings predictions about what the coming year will bring. Unfortunately a few things remain consistent with these predictions - First, the more daunting, negative, "world ending" ones tend to get the most visibility and frequency. Second, even the "experts" rarely get held to any scrutiny should these predictions not come through, so it's worth the risk to make more outlandish ones that grab more attention. 💲 The perfect example is the thousands of voices saying that 2023 would be the year of the great recession. With inflation up and interest rates rising, they "guaranteed" one was coming. It never did. 👎 The problem this caused was many companies started acting as if a recession was inevitable and that had a negative affect in many different economical areas. 👩🏫 My #MM is take predictions for what they are, educated guesses and that is it. Don't let them affect the way you do business or go about your day to day. 😎 I hope everyone has a great week and enjoys this #MM.

Forecasts Are Unpredictable

Summer's heating up, and so are the markets! As you plan your vacations, keep an eye on these key factors: 1️⃣ Fed's rate decisions and economic forecasts 2️⃣ Inflation trends resuming downward 3️⃣ Continuation of positive earnings streak 4️⃣ Potential election-related volatility 5️⃣ AI trends and tech developments Read the full insights from CIO Larry Adam and make the most of market opportunities: https://lnkd.in/eqN3QZ-D #FinancialMarkets #Investing #MarketTrends

Correction Map: "the average S&P 500 correction during non-recessionary periods is -15.4% and -36% during recessions" (i.e. why investors care about recessions) More charts: https://lnkd.in/gH_z-vxn