The latest statistics for England and Wales indicate that levels of recorded crime have fallen to an all-time low, yet there has been little mention of the significant drop by the media, the Government or forces themselves; in this second of two articles, Policing Insight’s Ian Wiggett considers the implications for how police performance is judged.
❝Confidence in police crime data has been under attack for decades, despite significant investment to assure the data’s integrity and major changes in police recording practice.❞
❝Selected crime categories, such as knife crime and shoplifting, are becoming the new ‘signal’ crimes, with the presence of a security guard in a local supermarket or news reports of another stabbing sending a message of rising disorder and insecurity.❞
❝The public can detect changes in local crime, but they consistently over-estimate the actual level of crime. The CSEW [Office for National Statistics Crime Survey of England & Wales] has found that “individuals’ perceptions of crime on a national level do not typically match well to reality.❞
❝In this election year we are likely to be bombarded with data in support of political arguments. The ONS [Office for National Statistics] found that while its data was largely trusted, only 35% of the public thought that the Government presented data honestly, and just 24% believed that the media presented data honestly.❞
❝Although the public are experiencing less crime, YouGov found that 70% of the public say the Government is handling crime badly. This creates a perverse incentive though. Politicians think it’s a vote winner to show toughness on crime and policing. They need to keep presenting it as a problem that needs fixing – but what exactly is the problem?❞
❝Current performance priorities are around certain high-profile crime types, public protection and risk management, integrity, and service levels. The performance focus is much more likely to be about the police response to the problem than the practical effect on crime levels.❞
❝Current performance priorities are around certain high-profile crime types, public protection and risk management, integrity, and service levels. The performance focus is much more likely to be about the police response to the problem than the practical effect on crime levels. Burglary offers a prime example. Since 2010, residential burglary has fallen by over 63% according to the CSEW, or by over 36% according to police records. You would expect either of these reductions to be considered a success – people would far rather not be a victim of burglary, than hear about latest detection rates.❞
❝We should still be interested in understanding what affects crime levels, what has changed in the past decade, and what that tells us about how to cut crime.❞
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Instructor - Research and Evaluation at Ontario Police College
2wLooking forward to the evaluation of the pilot !