Proactive’s Post

The Australian share market is set to open lower today after Wall Street reversed earlier gains spurred on by a positive report that showed US retail sales in March exceeding expectations with a 0.7% increase. #ASXFutures were down 0.9% to 7,720 points early this morning. A surge in US Treasury yields and escalating tensions in the Middle East put a dampener on the rest of the day’s proceedings, prompting a downturn across the major indices. The Dow dropped by 248 points, or 0.7%, despite an initial rise of more than 1%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices followed suit, sliding 1.2% and 1.8% respectively. Technology giants such as #Microsoft and #Nvidia stared down substantial losses, dropping between 2% and 2.5%, while Apple's shares fell 2.2% following a 10% drop in smartphone shipments as reported by IDC for the first quarter of 2024. More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors #ASX #ASX200 #ASXReport #SP500 #Nasdaq #DowJones #MorningCatchUp http://ow.ly/lpV2105pAu3

Retail investors are buying small-cap stocks at a record pace, with hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates soon. This surge reflects optimism about economic growth and potential rate cuts. Tracking these developments has been interesting - staying informed is a major key in making smart investment choices and navigating the markets. #Investing #SmallCapStocks #MarketTrends #FinancialPlanning

The FTSE 100 is predicted to extend its losses on Wednesday morning, the day of its 40th anniversary, after a big session of falls for US tech giants overnight. London’s blue-chip index is heading for a fall of around 10 points, according to spread-betting platforms. Yesterday the Footsie closed in the red on the first trading day of the year, down 11.72 points, 0.2%, at 7,721.52. The mid caps of the FTSE 250 fell 177.83 points, 0.9%, to 19,511.80. Last night was mostly worse on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq tumbling 1.6% and S&P 500 falling 0.6% as all of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech megacaps declined, led by a 2.2% fall for Nvidia and 1.5% slide for Meta Platforms. The Dow Jones meanwhile inched up 0.07%, led by big pharma, health companies and banks. Later this morning we will get some data on UK grocery prices and sales for the past month. More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors #LSE #TSCO #Tesco #Nvidia http://ow.ly/Yyml1057GEe

"Off the Cuff" - Markets started off the new month and quarter with negative bias. This was the culmination of several factors. First, there was some reaction from economic figures that were out Friday that the markets were getting a chance to react to. Then Fed Chair Powell spoke on an NPR show and reiterated that the Fed doesn't need to be in a hurry to cut interest rates since the labor market and economic growth is still strong. Lastly, the ISM manufacturing data out this morning was stronger than expected (highest level since Sept '22) backing up Powell's comments causing yields to spike, and stocks don't really like that. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 12 basis points to 4.33%. Oil also rose again by over a ½ % to nearly $84 also causing some inflation concern. The Nasdaq eked out a gain of 0.11%. The S&P, Dow, and Russell all fell 0.20%, 0.60%, and 1.02% respectively. The VIX jumped up nearly 5% to 13.65. Eight of the eleven major sectors finished lower. Despite the negative bias today, there were still several sub-sectors that were will into the green. Those were Semiconductors, Natural Resources, Copper, Rare Earth Metals, Lithium, Metals/Mining, Metaverse, EV, and Online Retail. There is only one earnings report after the close today and that is from PVH (Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, and more). There is one earnings to watch in the morning from Paychex. Economically, it's a busy day tomorrow. The JOLTS labor data is out first thing along with factory orders, vehicle sales, and four Fed officials speak throughout the rest of the day. As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me. Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news.

"Off the Cuff" - Markets couldn't gather momentum in either direction today ahead of the holiday tomorrow. Yields moved lower after the weaker retail sales number and a better than expected 20-year bond auction, but that couldn't move stocks much. The S&P managed a 0.25% gain, the Nasdaq scratched out a 0.03% green day, the Dow was up 0.15%, and the Russell advanced 0.16%. The VIX moved lower by 3.5% to 12.30. As I mentioned, yields were lower with the 10-year falling back to 4.22%. Oil was higher again today, but still at $80.81 remains in the top of that range I wrote about yesterday. Eight of the eleven major sectors finished positive today. Semiconductors were a standout in the sub-sector area as NVIDIA surged past Microsoft to become the largest market cap company in the world and it drug along some of its semi friends to the upside. Other sub-sectors outperforming today were Copper, US Industrial tech, Travel, Specialty Real Estate, Infrastructure, Natural Resources, Robotics, AI, Defense, and many more up 0.10-0.35%. Earnings of note Thursday morning are from Darden, GMS, Jabil, and Kroger. Even though the markets here are closed tomorrow, they'll have to wait and react on Thursday from UK inflation data and US housing figures. Thursday before the open markets get react to a UK interest rate decision, more US housing data, weekly jobless claims, and more Fed speak. REMINDER, markets are closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth holiday.  As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me. Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news.

🐂 "Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks": so writes today's Wall Street Journal. It's a corny headline yet when reviewed with stats from The Fed, U.S. Retail investors are very savvy, far more than their counterparts over here in Europe. https://lnkd.in/e4-HyxRi ✈ Although I haven't been over the pond for some time I do recall that investing is a means to an end for many; running parallel, not secondary to their day to day jobs. The same appears to be beginning to happen in the UK as digital platforms and new instruments provide younger generations with an opportunity to build up portfolios of ETFs rather than stock picking. 🏦 The link, below, is from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System . Have a look at the charts provided in the link, they're very interesting. For example, back in Q1 2009 direct ownership of stock was 47.4% of Disposable Personal Income. By Q1 2021 that had risen to 170%, declining to 142% in Q3 2023 but recovering to 165% in Q1 2024. That, of course is partly a function of higher prices. https://lnkd.in/eu9-BYry 💵 Take a look at the breakdown in holdings (%): the percentage of directly held equity was 11% in 2009. As of Q1 2023 that had reached 28%. Again, this could be a function of rising share prices but it could also suggest greater market confidence. The value of these (direct) holdings was $34.1 trillion in Q1 this year. Go back to Q1 1984 and that value was (a mere) $867 billion! ❓ What does this reveal? Depth is one answer, something lacking in any of the other major markets. What conclusions do you draw?

The major indexes experienced a relatively muted day, with certain areas of big tech buoying the broader market. Meanwhile, a bounce in bonds helped to boost small-cap stocks, which are still trying to find direction. Sector Performance: Consumer discretionary led the gains, up 1.20%, while consumer staples lagged with a 0.43% decline. The broader market showed mixed results, with 7 out of 11 sectors closing in the green. International Markets: The Bank of Mexico left its key interest rate unchanged at 11%, noting market volatility amid upcoming elections and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan remains focused on the Yen ahead of its July policy meeting, as the currency falls to a 38-year low against the U.S. Dollar. Economic Indicators: U.S. first-quarter GDP’s final reading came in at 1.40%, up 10 bps from the last estimate. Consumer spending rose at its slowest rate in a year and a half. Manufacturing activity remains mixed, with May durable goods orders inching up just 0.10% and April’s number being revised down by 40 bps. May wholesale inventories rose 0.60% MoM, while retail inventories were flat excluding automobiles. Pending home sales fell by 2.10% to an all-time low in May, with transitions dropping 6.60% YoY. Corporate Moves: Hims & Hers Health fell 7% after Hunterbook Media published a report on alleged issues about the company’s sale of weight loss drugs. International Paper dipped 7% as Suzano is no longer pursuing its acquisition of the company. SM Energy Company is attempting to purchase XCL Resources in a $3 billion deal. RH jumped 9% after CEO Gary Friedman purchased $10 million in shares. Faraday Future Intelligent Electric surged 31% following speculation of a new equity investment after a meeting with UAE investment firm Master Investment Group. Earnings Recap: Nike cut its full-year guidance and expects revenues to fall 10% YoY in the current quarter. Fiscal 2025 revenues will be down mid-single digits versus previous expectations of slight growth. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and operational missteps, sentiment is currently in “extremely bullish” territory. Walgreens Boots Alliance’s adjusted earnings per share of $0.63 missed the $0.68 expected. The company cut its full-year adjusted profit outlook due to a “challenging” environment for pharmacies and U.S. consumers. News Briefs: The Center for Investigative Reporting sued OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement. Uber is paying participants to ditch their cars for five weeks to highlight the high costs of personal car ownership. Amazon plans a new budget storefront to compete with low-cost sellers from China. Closing Market Figures: S&P 500 closed at 5,483 (+0.09%), Nasdaq at 17,859 (+0.30%), Russell 2000 at 2,038 (+1.00%), and Dow Jones at 39,164 (+0.09%). Stay tuned for more insights into market movements and corporate developments. #Investing #MarketUpdate #EconomicIndicators #Earnings

An important hashtag #chart by J-C Parets >>> High Beta outperforming Low Volatility stocks is usually something we see in healthy market environments. This year, however, High Beta has been struggling to make any progress vs their Low Volatility counterparts. "Beta" is essentially how volatile a stock is relative to its benchmark. So High Beta think $SMCI, $NVDA, $AMD, etc.. You have half the S&P500 High Beta Index in Technology and another 17% in Consumer Discretionary. In contrast, for Low Volatility think Berkshire Hathaway, Coca-Cola, Visa, Procter & Gamble. You'll find a lot of Financials, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Industrials in this group. Source: J-C Parets …more

An important hashtag #chart by J-C Parets >>> High Beta outperforming Low Volatility stocks is usually something we see in healthy market environments. This year, however, High Beta has been struggling to make any progress vs their Low Volatility counterparts. "Beta" is essentially how volatile a stock is relative to its benchmark. So High Beta think $SMCI, $NVDA, $AMD, etc.. You have half the S&P500 High Beta Index in Technology and another 17% in Consumer Discretionary. In contrast, for Low Volatility think Berkshire Hathaway, Coca-Cola, Visa, Procter & Gamble. You'll find a lot of Financials, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Industrials in this group. Source: J-C Parets …more

📊 Markets Enter Consolidation - Nearing Highs... Market Overview: 📈 Previous Trading Day: Indices showed movement in local consolidation, near significant levels of highs and upper boundaries of upward growth channels. SPX exhibited local consolidation, continuing its movement near the level of 4977 and the upper boundary of the channel. NQ also displayed consolidation dynamics, moving close to the highs under the level of 17790. 📈Today: It is crucial for the indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 17200 for NQ and 4800 for SPX to prevent a pullback from current levels and to ensure the possibility of continued growth in case of breaking through the nearest levels at 17900 for NQ and 4980 for SPX. 📈Current Market Drivers: ▶️ The Q4 earnings season continues. ▶️ Investors respond to cautious views from several Fed speakers, including Powell. ▶️ A stronger economy gives the Fed more time before cutting rates. ▶️ Chinese authorities have intensified efforts to rescue the market. 📈Sectors: ✳️ Cyclical sectors showed a pullback dynamic, with XLB, XLRE, XRT, and XLY leading the decline. ✳️ Growth sectors displayed mixed dynamics, with MJ, TAN, and IPO experiencing the most significant decreases, while SOXX was stronger than the market, attempting to grow. ✳️ Defensive sectors showed divergent dynamics, with XLV being stronger than others, balancing near local highs, while XLU retreated, approaching a test of the local minimum. 📈Stock News: ⬆️ JNJ - J&J publishes positive data on PFA system for arrhythmia treatment. ⬆️ CAT - Caterpillar shares hit record levels after earnings surpass forecasts. ⬆️ HLT - Reports suggest Hilton is considering acquiring Graduate Hotels brand. (=) AA - Alcoa drops as Trump's tariff threat on Chinese imports revives bad memories. (=) AAPL - Apple's iPad shipments fall following a lack of new launches in 2023. (=) TTWO - MoffettNathanson downgrades to Neutral from Buy due to fewer growth catalysts until the GTA 6 launch. ⬆️ SOXX - Semiconductors in focus as Citi raises sales estimates for 2024 after a strong December. ⬆️ JNJ - Johnson & Johnson successfully completes autoimmune drug trials. ⬆️ AAPL - Early attractiveness of Apple Vision Pro "amazing" and could be a game-changer: Wedbush. ⬆️ NVDA - Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy rating on Nvidia and raises target price to $800 from $625. 📈Intermarket Analysis: Oil attempts a local rebound from the lower boundary of the channel and level 71.4. Yield shows continued upward dynamics, approaching 4.2%. VIX continues consolidation movement near level 13.8. Gold shows a pullback with a break below the lower boundary of the local channel and level 2046. #investment #stockmarket #stockbroker #makemoney #exchange #ipo #join_ipo_deals_and_make_money #atranicapital #momentum #etf #portfolio #UHNWI #HNWI #analytics #financial #investmentportfolio #hedgefund #financialadvisor #familyoffice #investmentbank