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After a downwardly revised 165K jobs in April, the US economy with an upside surprise added 272K jobs in May 2024, the most in five months, and significantly more than the 185K forecasted employment. Additionally, the reading exceeds the average monthly rise of 246K in the first four months of the year and 232K over the previous 12 months. Several industries saw continued increases in employment, with health care (68K) leading the way, particularly ambulatory health care services (43K), government (43K), leisure and hospitality (42K), which primarily included food services and drinking establishments (25K); and professional, scientific, and technical services (32K). Additional job growth was observed in retail trade (13K) and social assistance (15K). Meanwhile, jobs in manufacturing, wholesale trade, construction, information, banking, transportation and warehousing, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas production showed little to no change in employment. Additionally, March's data was corrected downward. Employment is 15K less than previously reported when the revisions from March and April are combined. After climbing from 3.9% in April to 4% in May 2024—the highest level since January 2022—the unemployment rate in the US surprised the market, which had predicted it would stay at 3.9%. A 157,000 rise in the number of jobless people to 6.649 million, while the number of employed people fell by 408,000 to 161.083 million. The employment-population ratio fell from 60.2% to 60.1%, and the labour force participation rate fell from 62.7% to 62.5%. With the upside surprise in NFP numbers and the uptick in the unemployment rate, next week's interest decision will be interesting to follow. I expect the rates to remain at their current rate, with a likely cut coming in July, if the FED does not want the rate cuts to be politicise. #economy #nonfarmingpayroll #nfp #unemploymentrate #market

Are you ready for the #jobs report this Friday? Payroll gains have slowed over the past two years, while the unemployment rate has been rising on-trend. With the Federal Reserve on the verge of more interest rate cuts, the jobs report will be a key data point informing markets of future Fed policy actions. A solid September employment report with payrolls above August levels with an unemployment rate at or below 4.2% is likely to signal that the Fed can take its time with rate cuts, which would likely support the greenback and bond yields. Additionally, a solid report could still have positive impacts on equities, oil prices, and industrial metals prices because it would assuage concerns about recession. A weak September employment report with payrolls below August levels with an unemployment rate at or above 4.3% would signal that larger interest rate cuts are more likely. This would, in turn, likely weigh on the greenback and bond yields. However, a weak report could still have mixed to bearish implications for equities, oil prices, and industrial metals prices because downside risks could exacerbate concerns about #recession. What do you expect from the employment report this Friday? Follow me - Jason Schenker - for updates about #economics and #markets. https://lnkd.in/g9Q8uQjn

Friday’s Jobs Report for August Expected to Have Major Economic Impact All eyes are on the Labor Department’s August jobs report, which is set to be one of the most critical economic releases of the year. The results will provide key insights into the labor market’s health and play a major role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decisions. Key Expectations: – Job Growth Forecast: The consensus is for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 161,000, with a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. – Federal Reserve Outlook: Markets anticipate the Fed will begin lowering interest rates soon, potentially opting for a jumbo rate cut depending on the report’s outcome. – Labor Market Concerns: Recent reports have highlighted a slowdown in hiring, raising concerns about a weakening economy. Wider Implications: – Economic Slowdown: Payroll growth has been decelerating through 2024, with July marking one of the weakest gains of the year. The August report will be crucial for determining if this trend continues. – Skills Gap and Job Seeker Sentiment: Job seekers remain cautious, and the labor market still shows a significant skills gap, with health care and remote work leading the demand. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/g3_aHSzv #JobsReport #LaborMarket #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #Employment

In June, the U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs, although previous months' estimates were revised down. For May, the original figure of 272,000 jobs was adjusted to 218,000, and for April, from 165,000 to 108,000. This shows a slowdown in the three-month moving average for hiring. Sectors leading the job increase were government, healthcare, social assistance, and construction, while professional and business services and retail trade saw declines. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, up from the expected 4.0%, the highest since October 2021. In June of the previous year, the unemployment rate was 3.6%. The average hourly wage increased by 0.3% in the month and 3.9% annually, in line with expectations but below the 4.1% annual rate in May. The average workweek remained stable at 34.3 hours. The slowdown in job creation, along with a potential drop in June inflation to 3.1% annually, might allow the Federal Reserve to consider a 25 basis point rate cut during their meeting on September 18. The probability of a rate cut has risen to 73%, compared to 46% a month ago. #Activest #USEconomy #Employment #Unemployment #Wages #FederalReserve #Inflation #Hiring #LaborMarket #InterestRates #GovernmentSector #Healthcare #Construction #RetailTrade

Last month's unemployment rise to 4.3% does not foreshadow a severe job market slump, a The Conference Board economist said. “The signals of softening that have emerged so far remain well within historic ranges and do not portend broader deterioration,” Mitchell Barnes, CFA, Conference Board economist, said in a statement. However, even with unemployment rising, the labor market still remains tight in some ways, according to Conference Board data. #labormarket #inflation #interestrates https://lnkd.in/ejxKT7-e

Jobs on the line... 🙄 The U.S. economy created fewer jobs than expected in August, raising concerns about a slowing labor market and signaling potential challenges for the Federal Reserve. ➡ According to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 during the month, falling short of the 161,000 forecast and down from July’s 89,000 increase. ➡ Impact on the Labor Market: The lower-than-expected job growth indicates that the labor market is losing steam, which could point to waning demand for workers. This slowdown may suggest that businesses are becoming more cautious amid uncertain economic conditions. The Federal Reserve, which has been closely monitoring labor trends to gauge the overall health of the economy, could see this as a sign that inflationary pressures are easing. ➡ Implications for Fed Policy: With futures now pricing in a half-point interest rate cut, the Fed may feel compelled to act sooner than previously anticipated. This suggests that the central bank may believe the economy needs additional support to prevent a deeper downturn. The rate cuts could provide relief, but they also raise questions about whether the Fed is adjusting its policy due to a sharper-than-expected slowdown. ➡ Is a Soft-Landing Still Possible? The weaker job numbers raise doubts about the likelihood of achieving a soft landing, where inflation cools without triggering a recession. If job growth continues to slow, it may signal that the economy is in a more fragile state than initially thought. ➡ The market shows a 55% probability of a 50-basis point cut, up from 40% on Thursday, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. The probability of a 25-basis point reduction was at 45%. -The market is weak. Beat up stocks are not rebounding. Volume is light. There will be a correction soon IMO. Hedge your long bets. Like this post? 😁 More here. 👇 ⚔Patreon.com/Eqwitty⚔ Disclosure. Opinions my own. Not investment advice. Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com #Jobs #PatternRecognition #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #StockMarket #Investing #StockTrading #FinancialStrategy #StockMarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategy #MarketVolatility #FinancialAnalysis #StockMarketPatterns #TradingSignals #FinancialMarkets #Options #Traders

Overall, the mixed jobs data indicated a resilient labor market without inflationary pressures from wage growth, which is what the Federal Reserve is hoping for – a soft landing for the economy – which boosted the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June from 75% to 87%. But one interesting piece from CFO Mark Yoon: businesses found it harder to pass through higher costs to their customers, who became increasingly sensitive to price changes. https://lnkd.in/eMWc38rZ #ratecut #employementdata #CFOinsights #economicreview #communitybanking #smallbusinessstrategy #labormarket #inflation

Previously, good news was good news. Now, bad news is good news. At 175K new jobs added, today’s US jobs data release is significantly lower than economists’ consensus expectations (estimate of 240K). Fewer than forecast jobs added, unemployment is ticking up (3.9%), wage increases are slowing down and inflation is heading north. Put it all together and you have stagflationary conditions brewing. The equity market is perversely celebrating this mosaic of bad news. The prima facie reason for this celebration: markets will get rate cuts in 2024 from the Fed. If / when the market gets rate cuts, it will be for all the wrong reasons, i.e. surge in unemployment and sharp slowdown in GDP. The market is not paying attention to the direction of travel for the US economy — which is stagflation. Worst of both of the worlds. Goldilocks is that fleeting moment when it feels like one is flying when one is actually falling. Myopia is in full force. Speculation reigns supreme...until it won't. This is not an equity market that is credible. This is not an equity market that is discounting future prospects of the US-listed companies which are inextricably linked to the US economy and US fiscal and monetary policies. We’ve officially entered La-La Land!

The U.S. job market surged in September with the biggest increase in job gains in six months, signaling a resilient economy that likely won’t require aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year. The Labor Department’s report revealed a jump of 254,000 nonfarm payrolls, well above expectations, and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. This solid employment growth, along with upward revisions to job figures from July and August, suggests that fears of a major labor market downturn may be overblown. Wage growth remained strong, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% in September after a 0.5% gain in August, further supporting consumer spending and economic momentum. Despite the robust data, hiring challenges and economic disruptions from Hurricane Helene and a machinist strike at Boeing could cloud October's job numbers. The labor market’s strength, combined with moderate inflation, seems to support Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious stance on further rate cuts. Financial markets adjusted, pushing the odds of a smaller 25-basis-point rate reduction in November to 95%, while largely discounting the chance of a larger 50-point cut. Key industries leading the job gains include restaurants and bars, healthcare, government, and construction, while manufacturing and warehousing saw job losses. Despite the turbulence, economists remain optimistic that wage growth will not reignite inflation, and productivity growth could further temper inflationary pressures. This resilient job market strengthens the case for more gradual Fed rate cuts, signaling confidence in the economy’s ability to weather near-term challenges. However, with external factors like strikes and natural disasters on the horizon, the October job report may introduce some volatility before the Fed’s next meeting. #USJobs #LaborMarket #EconomicGrowth #FederalReserve #NonfarmPayrolls #InterestRates #WageGrowth #UnemploymentRate #EconomicResilience #FinancialMarkets #JobGains #FedPolicy #USEconomy https://lnkd.in/eHHxaAN2

U.S. job growth in August came in lower than expected, signaling a slowdown in the labor market, yet the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, reinforcing the notion that the economy is not collapsing. Despite the weaker-than-forecast increase of 142,000 jobs, solid wage growth and steady consumer spending suggest the economy is still on solid ground. This tempered labor market cooling supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will opt for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting rather than the more aggressive half-point cut that some had speculated. The Labor Department’s report on Friday highlighted job gains in sectors like construction and healthcare, though manufacturing and retail saw declines. Revised data also showed 86,000 fewer jobs were added in June and July than previously thought, further pointing to a slowdown in hiring. However, wage growth remained robust, rising 0.4% month-on-month, which could keep consumer spending afloat and help stave off a recession for now. Fed officials have signaled readiness for rate cuts in the face of slowing labor market momentum, though the likelihood of a larger cut appears to be fading. With unemployment slightly down and wages holding strong, the Federal Reserve is likely to opt for a measured approach. #USJobsReport #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #WageGrowth #JobGrowth #EconomicOutlook #RecessionFears #Inflation #ConsumerSpending #SoftLanding https://lnkd.in/daskTVpU