Raghunadh Dasari’s Post

In an interview with Investment Magazine our Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Cash Katie Dean discusses adjustments AustralianSuper has been making to its bond portfolio in response to global trends, interest rate movements and inflation expectations. “It’s a classic asset allocation decision. When rates look like they have peaked it is normally a good time to start reducing your fixed income holdings,” Katie said. “What we would expect to see over the next six to 12 months is a reduction in the fund’s exposure to fixed income, very much predicated on the view that there’ll be higher returning asset classes.” Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gnYs7fux

The Resurgence of Bonds: A Strategic Opportunity for Canadian Advisors In recent weeks, I have personally observed a significant change in investment sentiment. My advisor clients enrolled in the Dynamic Funds "Investment Management Workshop" are increasingly inquiring about the possibility of boosting the fixed income allocations in their portfolios. According to the accompanying article, this shift is not merely a passing trend; it signifies a growing awareness of the essential role that bonds can play in a well-diversified investment strategy. KEY POINTS: • Market Dynamics: Following a downturn in the stock market, the demand for bonds surged, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting their lowest levels since mid-2023. This shift underscores the age-old relationship where bonds serve as a safety net during stock market volatility. • Historical Context: The correlation between stocks and bonds, which faltered in 2022, is showing signs of normalization. As inflation stabilizes and recession fears loom, bonds are regaining their status as a reliable hedge against market downturns. • Portfolio Performance: The traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy—60% stocks and 40% bonds—has outperformed all-stock portfolios during recent market fluctuations, demonstrating the importance of asset diversification. • Expert Insights: Some Wealth managers emphasize the renewed case for bonds, highlighting their defensive characteristics in uncertain economic times. As inflation concerns ease, many advisors are strategically reallocating towards fixed income. • Future Considerations: While the current landscape favors bonds, it's essential to remain vigilant. Upcoming economic reports could influence yields, and advisors should prepare to adjust strategies accordingly. CALL TO ACTION: As investment and financial advisors in Canada, now may be an appropriate time to reassess your clients' portfolios. Engage in discussions about the potential benefits of bonds and diversification strategies that can mitigate risk in an unpredictable market.

Want to get paid for holding money at “risk free*”? I’ve been asked many times lately where to invest money with “no risk”? – the traditional question of the risk-averse average person – if interest rates at banks are still yielding very low or even 0% on traditional deposits. Some individuals are holding a considerable amount of money, yielding 0%, when they can make 5% with no work at all. That is definitely worth taking the time to change the money to something that yields.Don’t be lazy! The last decade made us lazy about leaving the money not working for us. Times have changed! Earning 5% by essentially losing 1 hour is worth it! I am not talking about stocks and volatility… just basic very low risk government bond ETFs. We are Back to Bonds – ETFs/Funds of bonds – Low-risk investing! A quick answer – Buy IB01 ETF for 5.29% in USD, for EUR you can buy LU0128494944 for 3.59% (final July, it has increased now) … Go through a broker (Degiro, IBKR, and search for it) but it is better to read the rest! Finally, after many years where a traditional portfolio allocation consisting of a % of bonds and % of stocks didn’t make any sense, we are back to bonds, at least I am. The traditional 80%-20%, 50%-50% to 20-80% allocation depending on whether you were bullish on stocks or not didn’t work for the past decade. Why should you allocate any value to bonds when they were yielding 0% or negative? Why chase the 1% and 2% for long 20-30 year returns with huge duration risks? (the reason why SVB and others collapsed!) Fortunately, as opposed to fund managers, we as individual investors don’t have to show clients/investors that we’re allocating cash to something and having (miserable) returns so clients think we’re managing their money… meaning that in the last few years I was just holding cash and stocks. But things have changed considerably! The 3-month T-bill is now 5.5% and the 30-year is now at 4.28%. S&P 500 Earnings are now at 3.95% (or a 25 PE ratio)! Staying in bonds vs stocks is now a discussion. Governments across Europe are begging banks to increase their interest rates on deposits. Does this make any sense? The government’s view is that banks should increase deposit interest rates since the central bank has increased its reference interest rate and banks are lending (in Europe) at Euribor + spread, so their interest rate margin (the difference between the interest rate at which banks lend and the rate they pay on deposits) has increased dramatically. That represents a big part of a bank’s business that practically was dead for years and was replaced by charging fees on absolutely everything. (It may indicate that some banks will have big profits in the coming years, maybe I’ll do one post analysing that). Continues.. Read the rest at the following link #investing  #ETF #investing #lowrisk

Aloha Good financial investments can vary depending on individual goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. However, here are some commonly considered investment options: 1. Stocks: Investing in individual stocks or stock market index funds can provide the potential for long-term growth. It is important to research and diversify to mitigate risk. 2. Bonds: Bonds are debt securities issued by governments or corporations. They offer regular interest payments and return of principal at maturity. Bonds are generally considered to be lower risk compared to stocks. 3. Mutual Funds: Mutual funds pool money from multiple investors to invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, or other assets. They are managed by professional fund managers and offer diversification. 4. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): ETFs are similar to mutual funds but trade on stock exchanges like individual stocks. They offer diversification and can be a cost-effective way to invest in various asset classes. 5. Real Estate: Investing in real estate can provide both income and potential long-term appreciation. This can include rental properties, real estate investment trusts (REITs), or real estate crowdfunding platforms. 6. Index Funds: Index funds are passively managed funds that aim to replicate the performance of a specific market index. They offer diversification and tend to have lower fees compared to actively managed funds. 7. Retirement Accounts: Contributing to retirement accounts like 401(k) or Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) can provide tax advantages and long-term growth potential. 8. Peer-to-Peer Lending: Peer-to-peer lending platforms enable individuals to lend money directly to borrowers, earning interest. It is essential to assess the risks and diversify across multiple loans. 9. Commodities: Investing in commodities like gold, silver, oil, or agricultural products can act as a hedge against inflation and provide diversification. 10. Education and Skills: Investing in oneself through education, training, and developing new skills can lead to higher earning potential and career growth. It is crucial to conduct thorough research, seek professional advice, and consider personal financial circumstances before making any investment decisions. Diversification and a long-term perspective are key to managing risk and maximizing potential returns. #fypシ゚viral #therebirthofthegentlemen #thestyledoctor #Yo

Navigating Market Shifts and Economic Signals In the latest AmericaFirst Funds Investment Outlook, our Chief Investment Officer, Daniel Lew, CFA, and Head of Fixed Income, Michael Cheah, provided a detailed analysis of market trends as of August 19, 2024. The 10-Year Treasury Yield saw a slight decline to 3.89% from 3.94% the previous week, reflecting cautious optimism in the bond market, while concerns over equity market valuations and economic indicators continue to grow. Analysts are projecting a 5.2% earnings growth and a 4.9% revenue growth for Q3 2024, though challenges such as rising U.S. interest payments—now nearing 40% of tax receipts—raise concerns about long-term economic sustainability. Key insights include:  · 10-Year Treasury Yield: Decreased to 3.89%, indicating a cautious bond market sentiment.  · U.S. Tax Receipts vs. Interest Payments: Interest payments now account for nearly 40% of tax receipts, highlighting potential long-term economic challenges.  · Equity Market Valuations: Valuations are high, but Q3 earnings and sales growth remain modestly positive.  · Q3 GDP: The New York Fed’s Nowcast for Q3 2024 GDP growth was revised to +2.24%, alleviating some fears of an imminent recession. At AmericaFirst Funds, we are closely monitoring these developments to navigate potential economic turbulence with strategic adjustments. As we continue to leverage data and AI in our investment strategies, we remain vigilant in adapting to the evolving market landscape. Watch here: https://lnkd.in/euwUG3Ey Curious about how these insights can influence your portfolio? Reach out to us for a personalized consultation.  Call us at 916-865-9070 or schedule an appointment: Schedule Appointment Disclosure: For Institutional Investors. This material is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities. The opinions expressed are as of August 19, 2024, and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. The views expressed in this material are the views of AmericaFirst Wealth Management Investment Team through the period ended August 19, 2024, and are subject to change based on market and/or other conditions. AmericaFirst Wealth Management, Inc. is the investment adviser to the AmericaFirst Funds, distributed by Arbor Court Capital, member FINRA/SIPC. #InvestmentOutlook #MarketAnalysis #EconomicTrends #AI #InvestmentStrategies #AmericaFirstFunds 

Investment Review of 2023 and Strategy for 2024. We started 2023 with the 10-year Treasury bond yielding 3.88%, spot gold (London Fixing) at $1,812, and the SP500 at 3849. My advice was to avoid bonds and to hold gold. I also recommended to keep a steady hand on the tiller with equities, avoiding efforts to time the market.  As of now, December 15, 2023, 10-year Treasury yields are 3.91%, so prices are down just a touch thanks to the recent furious rally, gold is over $2,000, up more than 10%, and the SP500 is 4719, up 22%. I suggested in this space on October 29, when the 10-year yield hit 5%, that buying it made sense: “At a yield of 5% -- perhaps 2% real and 3% expected inflation – the bond may be nearing fair value.”  This is the first time I recommended buying the10-year and those who did it earned a capital gain of more than 7%. So, what should investors do next year? As usual I suggest keeping both stocks and gold at “normal levels.” That means about 3% in gold and 30-80% in stocks depending on who you are – risk preferences, age, and what you do for a living. The main issue is bonds. I think the one-year Treasury note (yielding 4.93%) dominates the 10-year (yielding 3.91%). And that is for two reasons: uncertain inflation and uncertain real yields. The current yield on the 10-year Treasury reflects a real yield of about 2% to compensate savers for not consuming plus about 2% to compensate for expected inflation. But both of those underlying factors are likely to turn out higher than expected, which would produce losses. Ten-year TIPS, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, would eliminate the risk of inflation uncertainty but would still expose investors to uncertain real yields. The one-year Treasury, however, allows investors to “reset” compensation for both inflation and real rate changes after a year. Over the past 50 years the real rate has been more stable than inflation but that might not be true going forward. America’s federal deficit remains at 6% of GDP, an unprecedented number with full employment in peacetime. Congress seems uninterested in reining in the budget and that could easily drive-up real yields demanded by saver/investors. Buying one-year Treasuries and rolling them over protects investors. See You in January, Bill Silber December 17, 2023, 5pm. #investing #stocks #bonds #gold #strategy     

A summary of what the top investment banks forecast for 2024. We took forecast reports from 8 of the top investment banks* and summarised them into one outline. Here’s what they predict for the year ahead: 1. Macroeconomic Outlook: Geopolitical uncertainty is the predominant theme, but global recession is deemed unlikely. Economic growth is expected to trend lower, occasionally approaching contraction. The unusual mix of high inflation and interest rates with low unemployment, and robust growth in some emerging markets prompts a reevaluation of traditional macroeconomic patterns. 2. Private Markets: Multiple forecasts highlight the expectation of a rebound in private equity activities. Fueled by debt market optimism, private equity firms are poised to re-enter the M&A arena, with increased comfort in leverage-driven deals. The revival hinges on improved exit strategies, particularly through a revitalised IPO market. Private credit growth will continue. 3. M&A Dynamics: The cautious approach to dealmaking is expected to soften, with certain tech areas such as AI and climate likely experiencing most gains. Clarity in economic outlook and the end of the rate-hiking cycle could drive increased M&A. Antitrust scrutiny remains a potential obstacle. 4. Government Policy: The US faces potential spending declines and election friction, Europe grapples recession concerns and China must solve a property crisis. Ongoing tight financial conditions will impact growth, prompting governments to shift focus from fiscal support to debt reduction. 5. Portfolio Strategies: Forecasts advocate rebuilding portfolios with more diversification. Opportunities in municipal bonds, private credit, and real assets are highlighted, as are positions in oil, gold and alternatives. 6. Technology & AI: Several forecasts underscore increased opportunities in AI-enhanced software and healthcare solutions, and biotech. The transformative potential of AI, coupled with opportunities in disruptive technology sectors is highlighted as a key factor for future investment. Supply chain reorientation is a noted opportunity stemming from geopolitical fragmentation. 7. Investment Approaches: Strategies suggest to manage liquidity, buy quality bonds and stocks, trade currencies and commodities within expected ranges, hedge against market risks, and diversify with alternative credit. 8. Sustainability & ClimateTech: Sustainability emerges as a recurring theme, noting opportunities in both public and private markets. Transition and improver funds, alongside climate technology companies, are recognised as attractive to investors seeking competitive returns within the space. Stay tuned for next week when we release our Simple 2024 Outlook For Family Offices.  * Forecast reports from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, UBS, Lazard, BlackRock & BNP Paribas; insight also taken from S&P Global. #PrivateWealth #FamilyOffice #WealthManagement #Trends

The AIC has published a list of the 39 investment trusts that invest in alternatives, yield at least 5% and have delivered a positive share price total return over the past five years. Annabel Brodie-Smith comments: “Alternative income investment trusts grew rapidly during the period of ultra-low interest rates, but the picture has changed over the past couple of years as central banks have raised rates to try and contain inflation. This list shows how many investment trust discounts have widened as investors have sought yields that compete with bonds and cash. “Although the list contains several long-established trusts with good track records of paying dividends, there are no guarantees. Investors should use this list as a starting point for their own research only, and if in doubt, should consult a financial adviser with experience in investment trusts.” Read the full release here: https://lnkd.in/eTaGjxRc Nick Britton ACSI Vanessa Booth Juliet Webber Richard Stone #investmentcompanies #investmenttrusts #investing

Explore the dynamic contrasts between day trading and long-term investing, two distinct approaches to navigating the financial markets. Each strategy offers unique advantages and challenges, catering to different investor profiles, time commitments, and risk tolerances. 📊 ▶ Our trading platform: https://bit.ly/3R8Vtvx Day Trading: Harnessing Market Volatility Day trading involves buying and selling securities within the same trading day. Traders capitalize on short-term market fluctuations to earn profits, often executing multiple trades in a day. Pros of Day Trading Immediate Results: Profits or losses are realized quickly, allowing traders to adjust strategies without delay. High Potential Returns: Skilled traders can achieve significant returns, leveraging small price movements for substantial gains. Market Independence: Day traders can make money in both rising and falling markets through different trading techniques like short selling. Cons of Day Trading High Risk and Volatility: The rapid pace and frequent trading increase the risk of significant losses, especially without proper risk management. Intensive Time Commitment: Requires constant market monitoring and quick decision-making throughout trading hours. Costly: High transaction fees and taxes, especially short-term capital gains taxes, can erode profits. Long-term Investing: Building Wealth Over Time Long-term investing involves holding assets for extended periods, often years or decades, to benefit from the market’s overall upward trend. Pros of Long-term Investing Compounding Returns: Allows earnings to generate their own earnings over time. Reduced Impact of Volatility: Long-term perspectives help ride out short-term market fluctuations. Lower Costs: Fewer transactions mean lower associated fees and favorable long-term capital gains tax rates. Cons of Long-term Investing Capital Immobilization: Money invested is not readily accessible for long periods, which might be a disadvantage during financial emergencies. Delayed Gratification: Requires patience as significant returns are realized over time. Market Risk: Exposure to longer-term market downturns can affect investment values. Choosing Your Path Whether opting for the high-speed world of day trading or the gradual growth of long-term investing depends on your financial situation, lifestyle, risk tolerance, and investment goals. Tools and Insights with SimpleFX SimpleFX offers tools and resources suitable for both day traders and long-term investors. From real-time data feeds for day trading to extensive research materials for long-term investment strategies, SimpleFX supports traders in navigating their chosen paths effectively. Understanding the pros and cons of each investment style allows you to make informed decisions that suit your personal and financial aspirations, enhancing your potential for success in the financial markets. 🗒 #simplefx #daytrading #investmentstrategies

Reflecting on our 2024 Investment Forecasts   This week, Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee published our 2024 Midyear Outlook, presenting an opportune moment to assess how our beginning-of-year forecasts have played out so far:   Rates: Higher-for-longer short-term rates continues to be the story of the year. We’ve been consistent with our higher-for-longer theme, which has carried out as expected. While declining longer-term rates have yet to take place, we do expect for interest rates to fall in the second half of the year, so stay tuned.   Inflation: We thought market consensus of 2.4% for year-end core PCE was too optimistic about disinflation at the start of this year, and we have been right. We forecasted 2.75%, and consensus has moved exactly to us.   GDP & job growth: We forecasted slower GDP growth in 2024 and that is playing out, though we’re looking out for the deceleration to continue for the rest of the year. As our forecast of 4% unemployment for year-end 2024 has already occurred, we could be at risk of slightly underestimating this statistic.   We remain constructive on fixed income as an asset class and continue to stress the attractiveness of the current yield environment and related income generation potential. We see solid opportunities in higher quality areas of senior loans and collateralized loan obligations, which present strong fundamentals and should continue to benefit from the higher-for-longer theme. We also favor preferred securities that benefit from a solid issuer base and emerging markets debt investments that feature improving credit quality. Furthermore, municipal bonds offer enticing yields with the opportunity for additional total return as longer-term rates decline. Our top investment convictions continue to center around flexibility and diversification across credit sectors as yields continue to offer a once-in-a-generation opportunity for active bond investors. To learn more about our positioning within fixed income and top investment ideas across asset classes, check out our Midyear Outlook here: https://lnkd.in/ep5Pv7R4