Redbud VC’s Post

The madness of crowds  None of us are rational investors. We’re humans – fuelled by fear, overconfidence, and sometimes greed – to survive. Psychologists have long argued that we allow ourselves to be influenced by the “madness of crowds”. Mob mentality, herd mentality, groupthink – the concept has many names. But they all boil down to the same idea: Individuals are influenced by a larger group. So, if tech stock is on the rise, FOMO kicks in, and we all invest more in tech........Click the link below to read more and subscribe to our newsletter https://lnkd.in/dQABiBVm

What does #3Roots President, Founder, and CEO Grady Vanderhoofven predict for 2024? teknovation.biz is back with its Investor Outlook series with six local prognosticators, including Vanderhoofven. First question: “Many predicted at least a mild recession in 2023, but it did not occur. What does your crystal ball say for 2024?” See what Vanderhoofven and others had to say ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/e3ADPdAW

In the past, poets, philosophers, and religious figures were considered the 'experts' in political, economical, and social matters. But today, who are the professional figures we tend to follow in a follower-leader system? Are scientists and financial analysts or financial institution figures always the best voices to listen to for a better society and for a long term vision investment? It's a question worth pondering. Reading about designers and consumer goods companies facing challenges due to investing solely based on projected numbers and "macho return strategy" makes me question the radical judgments applied to investments. Reflecting on these thoughts and the impactful article by Joan Westenberg on VC disasters, it's interesting to consider if a shift in perspective is needed for a more balanced and value-based approach to decision-making. #ProfessionalInsights #CriticalThinking #InvestmentStrategies #SocietyBuilding #humanvision #professional #valuesystems

What do ALL investors want? Good market? Good tech? Good founder? None of the above. All investors are just driven by loss aversion. It is mental torture to lose money. When I asked 653 deep tech investors across the globe what they backed: markets or tech or founders, I was more interested in the reasons they gave. Most said markets. The 3 men who answered differently had specific reasons. 1. One said focusing on founders helps for an early exit 2. One said focusing on founders helps achieve pivots in failing markets 3. One said focusing on buyer ROI compels buyers to keep buying What was the driver behind all 3? Loss aversion. Loss aversion is why investors always prefer an early exit to a late one. Loss aversion is why investors always prefer you pivot rather than shut down. Loss aversion is why investors want your buyers to want to keep buying. And loss aversion is why the majority of investors who back markets back markets. These 4 propositions are always true. Why? Investors just want to avoid losing money if possible. This seems ridiculously common sensical. It is not the popular view. Why? Modern Portfolio Theory. MPT says that since investors have a portfolio of other investments, their overall risk is lower. So all you do is sell the investor the upside. Don't worry about the downside. Not really. Startup investments are illiquid. There is no portfolio rebalancing like public markerts. Diversification does NOTHING to reduce an investor's anxieties about losing money. To raise money: 1. Do sell the upside 2. But worry twice as much about the downside 3. Tell the investor you know the downside Simple as.

Interesting interview—VC is a very hot topic all of sudden with the market conditions, treasuries at historic levels affecting interest rates, inflation, many Fed rate hikes this past year or so, article after article almost daily about VC and Ai popularity/concerns—along with Wars, Foreign Affairs/Relations, Economic factors here & abroad, Semiconductor Industry/Manufacturing issues in China/Taiwan, and much more. Regardless, people & companies will always need/rely on “Money” needs, valuations will stabilize is the message and like a “stock” or 401k, VC Investments are primarily for the long-term/hold-on position for the most part, so Breathe-in😤🧘♂️….and Breathe out💨….Cycles occur, Markets’ fluctuate, and there are Entrepreneurs’ & Opportunities’ happening/developing daily, weekly, monthly, & annually.😉💵💡🌎☮️🙏World Peace!! ~Hamptons at Boca Raton, Florida

💡 "Take a simple idea and take it seriously." — Charlie Munger This quote resonated deeply with me, especially as I embarked on the journey of creating Trending Stocks by Stock Trend Spotter, LLC. During my time as Senior Vice President at one of the nation’s leading healthcare insurance providers, I witnessed three serious financial downturns within just eight years. Many of my colleagues, friends, and family suffered significant losses in the stock market because they were led to believe that a buy and hold strategy was the best path to financial security. Determined to find a better way, I began extensive research and discovered the highly successful investment strategy known as trend following. However, I recognized the major drawback: the time and labor required to identify and chart trending stocks. Combining my experience in developing IT software for Fortune 500 companies with my passion for investing, I set out to create a Platform that would empower investors of all backgrounds to manage their portfolios with confidence. Trending Stocks is a simple idea: to allow investors to reduce the noise and feel more empowered in their decision-making with less time. Our proprietary algorithms, based on decades of successful trend following strategies, combined with a decade of testing and optimization, make it easy for you to select criteria that fit your investment objectives and execute all the time-consuming calculations with just the click of a button. Discover the power of Trending Stocks and take control of your investment journey today. Sign up for free at trendingstocks.io. 📈 #investor #founder #fintech #investing #entrepreneurship

Silicon Valley Bros get to shape the narrative I understand why TechCrunch journalists have to give these two a microphone. But this analysis is without merit and the Silicon Valley high priests do not have to provide any evidence. Was it over regulation that prompted these guys to bet on Adam Neumann twice. There greatest hits include a number of other questionable investments. VC as a segment of the finance world is under pressure being shown up for being wasteful and not adhering to its posture of merit since funds with Black and brown leaders perform better but are statistically smaller. They do not get allocations of equivalent size or raise as fast. Exits are drying up and so maybe these guys are worried about rates of wealth creation slowing. Claiming that concern about fiscal policy being less regressive and industry rules supporting fairness underlies this political choice is not courageous or compelling. Then their is technodeterminism dressed up as optimism. This claim is not for critical thinkers and I do not have the time to drag their argument. Let me say this the Biden Harris industrial policy in clean tech and semi conductor manufacturing has done more for America's tech positioning than decades of betting on SaaS and now AI. And, has the advantage of being employment generating. This version of financial sector leadership needs to be in our rearview mirror and the sooner the better. take note ImpactAlpha

Private market investments make you look smarter. I’m serious. Let me show you how: Stock market investors often get swayed by short-term news and media noise, leading to poor decisions. While starting off with a good plan, daily market price movements, minor quarterly earnings misses, macro news, or unfavorable media coverage often cause the investor to throw in the towel. These behavioral finance mistakes are errors people make with their money because of emotions or bad habits. And these mistakes often lead to poor investment performances. In fact, a study by Dalbar & J.P. Morgan found that the average (retail) investor's return during a 20-year timeframe was 2.6% p.a.. That is marginally above the average annualized inflation rate of 2.1%. So barely any real return! They lagged the S&P 500's average annual return by a substantial 5.2%. That is huge! Now, what does private market investing have to do with any of this? Well, in the first place, private investments tend to come with some restrictions on when I can sell. This means I cannot just panic and sell when a bad earnings report comes in, for example. I am incentivized, and in some cases required, to keep my investments for the long term. This is actually good because if I invest for long enough, it is almost impossible to lose money with a diversified private market portfolio. But not only that, private market investments are known to generate higher returns. In our case, the Morningstar PitchBook Unicorn Select 20 Index, an index of the global Top 20 private tech companies, generated 19% p.a. after considering hypothetical fund fees over the last 10 years. At this point, you might be wondering what the catch is. After all, if private market investing is so great, why isn’t everyone doing it? The short answer is, that accessing these investments in the first place has been virtually impossible. That’s what we’re changing at Stableton. Starting with a portfolio that contains all the Top 20 global private technology companies such as SpaceX, Stripe, Revolut, Epic Games, Databricks, etc. Want to find out more? Check out our newsletter: https://lnkd.in/eG6ufZtT #investing #growthequity #marketaccess #stockmarket #fintech

It is inevitable valuations will come down