RespectUs’ Post

I joined CNBC Asia Squawk Box last night to chat sanctions, oil markets and other risks. Shared my view about the difficulties of imposing new sanctions, which suggests new measures will be incremental for oil markets. Risks tilted to tightening and less revenues to Iran due to new networks being developed. Other fundamentals, Russian supplies (still ample for now, maybe more so for crude) and Chinese demand (including the more flexible small refineries) are perhaps more important. Focus of new sanctions likely to be on segments of oil trade seen to be linked to IRGC, which could have minor declines in trade and increase costs, but unlikely to be game changer. Why? Trade is already using illicit networks which are harder to disrupt. Not impossible but difficult as blunter tools would be required. Tradeoffs with other policy objectives (China balance, regional priorities and oil supply). Also why? G7 can agree on targeting missile program etc. Tho I am skeptical it will do much. Risks tilted towards greater volume loss, but that may also reflect price negotiations and navigation of new/existing sanctions and competition between different sanctions jurisdictions. The partial removal of Venezuela’s sanctions relief Theres been a lot of talk about Iran’s oil supplies being highest in 6 years. I will be watching if that is sustainable and how much it reflects a payback from some of the moderation in november to february when price spats kept some oil on sidelines. Also a little discussion(rare for news chats re sanctions effectiveness and how they often facilitate power consolidation)

The U.S., EU, UK, Canada, and Australia have unveiled a comprehensive set of new sanctions and restrictions targeting over 900 entities and individuals linked to Russia, as a response to Russia's continued aggression in Ukraine and the death of opposition figure Alexei Navalny. If you missed last week’s live Quick Take discussing these issues; you can now view it on-demand. In it, Kharon's experts, Freya Page (former UK OFSI), Mark Nakhla (former U.S. Treasury), and Joshua Shrager (former U.S. Treasury) dissect the breadth of these latest measures and their historical context, explore the details of the entities affected, and provide guidance on navigating the complexities posed by these enhanced sanctions. Watch now: https://bit.ly/3v3jbkX

Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted the US and its allies to impose sanctions, isolating the Russian economy. As these measures evolve, now amendments allow for sanctions on foreign financial institutions. These are known as secondary sanctions and carry potential consequences for institutions worldwide. Learn how Oliver Wyman can help navigate these complexities and mitigate sanctions-related risks > https://owy.mn/3SrsNxy #Sanctions #Compliance #FinancialInstitutions

Interesting Sanctions implications: The complex effects of Sanctions. Details in the article.

Sanctioned Realities: Iran and the Failure of Economic Warfare Sanctions have long been a staple in US foreign policy, on the assumption that they are an effective alternative to war in shaping the behavior of U.S. adversaries. But a new book by Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, and Ali Vaez, How Sanctions Work: The Impact of Economic Warfare on Iran, demonstrates that punishing sanctions are not only ineffective, but actually counterproductive. The case of Iran, which has undergone U.S. sanctions for over four decades — is instructive. Escalating U.S. sanctions have only furthered enmity between the U.S. and Iran, increasing the likelihood of lethal conflict and the prospect of a nuclear Iran, all the while compelling the Iranian population to pay the price. At a time when the risk of a region-wide war in the Middle East is growing, it is important to consider the extent to which economic warfare has helped bring us to this point, an…

Join my colleagues for a timely webinar on the impact of Russia sanctions as we approach the 2 year landmark of the war in Ukraine. Register for free, below. #sanctions #webinar #russia #russiaukrainewar #evasion #riskandcompliance

In the wake of the U.S. Government’s imposition of sanctions on over 500 Russian targets today as a continued response to the conflict in Ukraine and the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, our upcoming Quick Take webinar next Thursday will provide an in-depth analysis of these developments. Join Kharon's experts for a concise 30-minute discussion on the expanded sanctions landscape, the intricacies of the targets involved, potential evasion tactics by Russia, and strategies to effectively manage and mitigate the risks posed by these comprehensive measures. https://bit.ly/3uAjOm9

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine two years ago, the EU, U.S., and other governments have implemented some of the most robust and far-reaching sanctions and trade controls in history, targeting Russia and its supporters. Jooin Kharon experts and industry peers for a quick take webinar with an overview and some analysis on the impact so far. #sanctionscompliance #russiaukrainewar #globalsecurity #riskmanagement

The latest US #sanctions on #Russia and Russian sanctions evaders underscore the US’s continued commitment to a whole-of-government approach in this area. Our alert takes a closer look at the sanctions and what they mean for both Russian and non-Russian entities. #GlobalSanctions #OFAC #Ukraine #Energy #Electronics #Diamonds

On March 26, the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) unveiled an ambitious endeavor with the inaugural meeting of the U.S.-ROK Enhanced Disruption Task Force (EDTF). This bilateral initiative marks a significant step forward in the global effort to enforce sanctions and disrupt illicit activities by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), #autonomoussanctionsdesignations #DPRKsanctionsevasion #illicitrevenuestreams #internationalsecurityandnonproliferation #refinedpetroleumprocurement #strategiccollaborationenforcement #USROKEnhancedDisruptionTaskForce #UnitedNationsSecurityCouncilResolutions #UnitedStatesforeignpolicy #WMDandballisticmissileprograms