Rohit Sarkar’s Post

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Research Analyst @Crowwd| Master of Science in Finance

Suriname's financial outlook is improving dramatically, mainly due to the anticipated impact of a major oil discovery. On July 25, 2024, TotalEnergies' CEO Patrick Pouyanne hinted at a potential $9 billion investment in deepwater drilling at Block 58, which could hold up to 700 million barrels of oil. This has caused Suriname's dollar bonds due in 2033 to rise by 3 cents on the dollar, with Barclays lowering the chance of the project not moving forward from 10% to 5%. Suriname's bonds have surged this year, returning 14.7% compared to the average 5% for other emerging markets. The yield spread over U.S. Treasury bonds has dropped by 200 basis points to 479. Foreign bonds due in 2033 have risen to 97 cents on the dollar from 83 cents. The value recovery instrument, tied to oil royalties from Block 58, has more than doubled to 85 cents and could climb another 10 to 24 cents. In addition to the oil developments, Suriname has made significant fiscal reforms, such as removing fuel subsidies and expanding VAT, reducing its central government debt from 146% of GDP in 2020 to under 90% in 2024. However, risks remain, including political uncertainty from the May 2025 presidential elections and potential social unrest due to the economic reforms. #oilboom #emergingmarkets #totalenergies #barclays #commodities #bondmarkets Source: Bloomberg

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