Rosa Roubini Associates’ Post

The content of our weekly ViewsLetter "Making Sense of this World" is available on Rosa Roubini Associates' website. In my column, titled “The world’s Major Central Banks Are at a Turning Point”, I discuss: 1. The announcements and decisions made by the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ over the last couple of weeks; 2. Why the Federal Reserve System left its #policy unchanged in July but is ready to start cutting #rates in September; 3. How the European Central Bank left its rates unchanged in July but is “wide open” to cut them again in September; 4. The Bank of England's decision to start cutting rates in August; 5. The #BoJ’s decision to increase rates in July and its announcement of the #QT parameters; and 6. Why the #G4 central banks decided to put their houses in order before the summer break. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/dHv6f6Z

The content of our weekly ViewsLetter "Making Sense of this World" is available on Rosa Roubini Associates' website. In his column, titled “Markets Now More Aligned To Central Banks’ Likely Policy Moves”, Prof. Brunello Rosa Rosa reviews and discusses:  1. The shift in tone most hiking #centralbanks did at the end of last year; 2. The latest decisions by the world’s major central banks (#Fed, #ECB, #BoE, #BoJ); 3. How many cuts the #market now expects from the Fed in 2024; 4. The BoE’s “table mountain” approach; 5. Why the ECB may be the first major central bank to cut rates in this cycle; 6. The BoJ’s attempt to move away from its ultra-loose policy stance, possibly in April. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/dHv6f6Z

The content of our weekly ViewsLetter "Making Sense of this World" is available on Rosa Roubini Associates' website. In my column, titled “Markets Now More Aligned To Central Banks’ Likely Policy Moves” I discuss: 1. The shift in tone most hiking #centralbanks did at the end of last year; 2. The latest decisions by the world’s major central banks (#Fed, #ECB, #BoE, #BoJ); 3. How many cuts the #market now expects from the Fed in 2024; 4. The BoE’s “table mountain” approach; 5. Why the ECB may be the first major central bank to cut rates in this cycle; 6. The BoJ’s attempt to move away from its ultra-loose policy stance, possibly in April. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/dHv6f6Z

All investor eyes are on September’s central bank meetings, with the Bank of England meeting on September 19th, the Fed on September 18th, and the ECB today. The European central banks have already begun cutting rates, and their American counterpart is widely expected to begin reducing rates next week – but there is always room for a surprise. What do you think - is the market right to expect more cuts, or have investors got it wrong this time? #CentralBanks #InterestRates #investing #FinancialMarkets #inflation 

Julian’s post today highlights the upcoming central bank meetings that are going to be a critical signal for global markets as we look towards the end of the year. Given the recent rate cuts in Europe and the expectation of more to come, what are your thoughts on the market’s current expectations? Do you think the market is accurately anticipating further interest rate reductions, or could there be a surprise in store? Share your insights below. #CentralBanks #InterestRates #investing #FinancialMarkets #inflation 

For professional investors only. Capital at risk. In this week's midweek market update, my focus is firmly on central banks once again — this week the Bank of England takes its turn in the spotlight. While the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged for now, we'll be keeping a close eye on how many members vote for a rate cut this time. In the meantime, the ECB still looks on course to cut rates in June — could the BoE and the ECB end up being a little too aggressive on rate cutting? Tune in to hear the answers: https://lnkd.in/e5gDawdD

We had great questions at our Quarterly Global Macro Update Webinar yesterday. I'll be sharing a few charts from the deck over the coming days. We forecast the Fed to bring interest rates down to 4.2% this year and to 3.00% by mid-2025. This will allow other central banks to ease policy as well, while also putting some downside pressure on the USD. https://ow.ly/hLXX50Tv4Fr #BMI, #Fed

Taking a closer look at the overall macro environment, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to begin their easing cycles, possibly as early as June. The two central banks may adopt different tactics as a result of the anticipated differences in the rate at which further interest rate cuts occur. However, it is not anticipated that the ECB will fall much behind the Fed. The upward resistance for EUR/USD is expected to be tested at the March 8 high of …, the weekly high of …, and the psychological barrier of ... From here, further gains can bring the price back to its December 2023 peak of ... A stronger decline to the 2024 low of … could be triggered by a sustained breach below the pivotal 200-DMA at ... From here, the weekly low of …, the 2023 bottom of …, and the round level of … are in order of decreasing value. Visit our website to learn more: 📌www.etomarkets.com #etomarketsph #EveryonesTradingOpportunities #forexph #tradingph #financialmarket #ForexTrading #TradeAndEarn #InvestSmart #TradeWithConfidence #MaximizeProfits #TradingOpportunity

European central banks have met over the past two weeks. The general tone of these meetings was that policy rates were at levels sufficiently restrictive to allow underlying inflation to fall back toward target. This is consistent with what we have been saying since the end of 2023 at BCA Research: Push back against rate cuts in the first half of 2024, but prepare for more easing than currently priced in in the second half of the year. You can register for a free trial to read more about what it means for European fixed-income portfolios: https://lnkd.in/gzZTHBjm

𝗚𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝗮𝗰𝗵𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝘁𝘀. The timing of the first rate cut is becoming clearer in most DMs, and we now expect that the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoC all cut for the first time in June. There is less clarity around the pace of rate cuts, however, especially since central bankers have been reluctant to provide guidance too far in advance. Using our database on historical G10 soft landings, we document patterns to help benchmark the pace of rate cuts. These patterns support our forecasts that the major DM central banks will cut for at least three consecutive meetings starting in June, continue to cut consecutively in economies like the Euro Area and UK where growth remains below trend, but slow down in economies like the US where activity remains resilient. #interestrates